winniedemon

Winnie's Crazy S5 Predictor - Qual #12

Dec 16th, 2021 (edited)
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  1. Edit 2021-12-17 - I typo'd the digits on the top 128 benchmark in a few places. The correct benchmark for top 128 is 3097, not 3079.
  2.  
  3.  
  4. 12 quals done, and 6 to go! We've finally reached a point where it may not be possible for some people to get a full 8 races in. The predictor is aware of this, and adjusts accordingly, but right now, it only impacts people who have only entered one race. Six is still a lot of races to work with though, so it hasn't had any noticeable impact on the projected standing yet. But this will be the last time we see one-or-two-race runners in the standings - predictions will take a hit after Q13 (one race) or Q14 (two race), and they will drop out of contention unless they join more races!
  5.  
  6. This update is longer than the previous ones, because I've included projections all the way down to 150th place. This way, folks in Challenge Cup contention can see where they fall. After the standings are the usual sections on people most likely to jump into the top 64, and the safety ratings of people currently in the top 64. Following that, I've included similar info for the top 128.
  7.  
  8. Overall, the current projected benchmark for top 64 is 3425 points (down from 3463 after Q10) and the benchmark for top 128 is 3097 points (up from Q10, which was 3076).
  9.  
  10. And without further ado, the current projected rankings after Qualifier #12:
  11.  
  12. 1. Fmz - 4039
  13. 2. Icola - 4014
  14. 3. Sponge - 3984
  15. 4. Marco - 3956
  16. 5. WTHH - 3920
  17. 6. CheckRaise - 3894
  18. 7. SeYsEy - 3886
  19. 8. Goomba - 3865
  20. 9. kariossa - 3863
  21. 10. MrMario7788 - 3844
  22. 11. favio94 - 3829
  23. 12. SariasObject - 3817
  24. 13. Riley - 3800
  25. 14. iceninetm - 3800*
  26. 15. Elagatua - 3796
  27. 16. Vodzilla - 3787
  28. 17. JustSam - 3786
  29. 18. mrmartin - 3774
  30. 19. Alexis - 3744
  31. 20. YUSoEpic - 3743
  32. 21. Skyward - 3725
  33. 22. ArthurOudini - 3717
  34. 23. Exodus - 3708
  35. 24. soli - 3704*
  36. 25. Melrose - 3699
  37. 26. Flouflouche - 3692
  38. 27. Jaybone25 - 3689
  39. 28. Ryuja - 3677
  40. 29. Xef199221 - 3673
  41. 30. rockchalk - 3666
  42. 31. Cfalcon - 3662
  43. 32. Gogeta - 3661
  44. 33. Sora - 3656
  45. 34. WoodenBarrel - 3645
  46. 35. Cokotier - 3644
  47. 36. Aosuna - 3633
  48. 37. gsk8 - 3607
  49. 38. drooness - 3606
  50. 39. juwk - 3602
  51. 40. Narcottic - 3600
  52. 41. docheaps - 3596
  53. 42. Yoyocanari - 3593
  54. 43. Nopons - 3590
  55. 44. FantaTanked - 3585
  56. 45. Cola - 3585
  57. 46. zelgadissan - 3572*
  58. 47. DylanMeeble - 3569
  59. 48. Raikaru - 3564*
  60. 49. BrotinderDose - 3558
  61. 50. HaydeyPatatey - 3551
  62. 51. Engel - 3546
  63. 52. MikeKatz45 - 3544*
  64. 53. sanzeau - 3543
  65. 54. GWL - 3512*
  66. 55. Xopar - 3507
  67. 56. alfalfa - 3506
  68. 57. Kirox - 3506
  69. 58. Stuck_man - 3505
  70. 59. RyuuKane - 3495
  71. 60. DareDevinX - 3491
  72. 61. PurpleRupees - 3486
  73. 62. emosoda - 3432
  74. 63. furlim - 3428*
  75. 64. Gavaroni - 3425
  76. ~~~
  77. 65. Silverytp - 3416*
  78. 66. Weasel2366 - 3410
  79. 67. Markars - 3408
  80. 68. EarlWeird - 3390
  81. 69. Alaixo - 3386
  82. 70. DubuDeccer - 3371
  83. 71. Ramond - 3364*
  84. 72. DoitiEtok - 3361
  85. 73. Braaks - 3360
  86. 74. T-RIS - 3356
  87. 75. TheLightswoord - 3354
  88. 76. TheAranaut - 3354
  89. 77. kr3z - 3345
  90. 78. Spikevegeta - 3342
  91. 79. zorro275 - 3339
  92. 80. NewSoupVi - 3338
  93. 81. Challensois_ - 3327
  94. 82. Oneshot013 - 3323
  95. 83. Cloudike - 3322
  96. 84. VidyaJames - 3316
  97. 85. Koari - 3313
  98. 86. Gyraxo - 3312
  99. 87. AlexanderHD - 3309
  100. 88. MisterKarp - 3302
  101. 89. Aughoti - 3300
  102. 90. Yoshizor - 3300*
  103. 91. Hamsda - 3293
  104. 92. West0pher - 3287
  105. 93. Jimbo - 3278
  106. 94. Digdig - 3274
  107. 95. Kevin_818 - 3271
  108. 96. KINGsamps0n - 3268
  109. 97. Phant - 3268
  110. 98. z3ph1r - 3266
  111. 99. papy_grant - 3257
  112. 100. 2dos - 3256
  113. 101. Death King II - 3252
  114. 102. SlyRyD - 3248
  115. 103. Willx48 - 3248
  116. 104. Letsklay - 3243
  117. 105. KCNecro - 3216
  118. 106. Keipi3 - 3212
  119. 107. Tubamann - 3207
  120. 108. TomPouce - 3206
  121. 109. Bossage - 3205
  122. 110. Chimpanreeve - 3200
  123. 111. xenoh - 3197
  124. 112. Alaszun - 3180
  125. 113. jaxstronomy - 3169
  126. 114. incoherent - 3165
  127. 115. Rafa - 3160
  128. 116. Kydams - 3154
  129. 117. Tjongejonge_ - 3153
  130. 118. tanjo3 - 3142
  131. 119. xHaii - 3141
  132. 120. Lefty - 3137
  133. 121. Egodev - 3120*
  134. 122. azder - 3119
  135. 123. XthDoctor - 3112
  136. 124. PhilippeTitou - 3109
  137. 125. Menou - 3104
  138. 126. baelnog - 3103
  139. 127. Oximan - 3097
  140. 128. Hellknight86 - 3097
  141. ~~~
  142. 129. WeightyWords - 3087
  143. 130. Chopthetank - 3073
  144. 131. MILLEKA__ - 3062
  145. 132. Chuckles501 - 3059
  146. 133. Jagger - 3043
  147. 134. BruZZler - 3037
  148. 135. BearKofca - 3027
  149. 136. kirkq - 3023
  150. 137. SDGShawn - 3014
  151. 138. Aurelius - 3008
  152. 139. UofCWildcat - 2999
  153. 140. HasCoffee - 2993
  154. 141. Kitsune - 2988*
  155. 142. barbu - 2984
  156. 143. Aranha - 2972
  157. 144. PandaCerise - 2968
  158. 145. prieR57 - 2968
  159. 146. Blueseangfh2 - 2953
  160. 147. Bread-kun - 2950
  161. 148. DeadlyThunder - 2947
  162. 149. ScorpiosFinalGambit - 2946
  163. 150. The Specialize - 2934
  164.  
  165. * indicates racers that have only entered 1 or 2 races
  166.  
  167.  
  168. As usual, I wanted to highlight the runners that are currently outside of the projected top 64, but could make it in, if their remaining races are above average. Everyone here is comfortably in Challenge Cup range, but top 64 is definitely still easily within their reach!
  169.  
  170. Weasel2366 3410 (66th) -> 3541
  171. Markars 3408 (67th) -> 3529.5
  172. EarlWeird 3390 (68th) -> 3499.5
  173. Alaixo 3386 (69th) -> 3431
  174. DoitiEtok 3361 (72nd) -> 3481.5
  175. Braaks 3360 (73rd) -> 3523.5
  176. T-RIS 3356 (74th) -> 3440
  177. TheLightswoord 3354 (75th) -> 3535
  178. TheAranaut 3354 (75th) -> 3429.5
  179. kr3z 3345 (77th) -> 3470.5
  180. Spikevegeta 3342 (78th) -> 3435
  181. zorro275 3339 (79th) -> 3471
  182. AlexanderHD 3309 (87th) -> 3504
  183. Aughoti 3300 (89th) -> 3462
  184. Hamsda 3293 (91st) -> 3791
  185. West0pher 3287 (92nd) -> 3507.5
  186. Digdig 3274 (94th) -> 3425.5
  187. Kevin_818 3271 (95th) -> 3541
  188. z3ph1r 3266 (98th) -> 3521
  189. SlyRyD 3248 (102nd) -> 3552
  190. KCNecro 3216 (105th) -> 3546
  191. TomPouce 3206 (108th) -> 3471
  192.  
  193.  
  194. Finally for the top 64, we have the latest safety ratings. As mentioned at the top of the paste, the current projected benchmark for top 64 is 3425, so anyone whose current score is 3425 or better is considered likely to make it into brackets.
  195.  
  196. A quick note about what it means to be mathematically guaranteed a spot in the tournament:
  197.  
  198. For every person who has entered at least one race, the predictor calculates a theoretical maximum score. That's the best score they could possibly get, if they scored a perfect 1100 on every single remaining race. Then, it sorts everybody by their theoretical maximum score. If a racer's current score is greater than or equal to 64th place of the theoretical max scores, the predictor declares them to be a lock for top 64, because it's literally not possible for enough people to out-score them.
  199.  
  200. However, I recognize that this is not a completely accurate model of the scoring system. Although it is true that 1100 is the maximum possible score, it is also not possible for an infinite number of people to achieve this score in every race. Getting a score of 1100 (or of any score greater than 1000) means having a finish time that is greater than the average of the top 7 finishers. But the person who comes in 7th can never have a finish time greater than that average, because they have the lowest score being averaged. So the maximum number of 1100s possible in a single race is 6. This means that, with only 6 races remaining in the season, there can only be up to 36 1100s total.
  201.  
  202. With those 36 1100s (and everyone else scoring high 900s), is it possible for 64 or more people to beat Icola's current score of 4014? My intuition says "no," but it isn't trivial to prove this. So, for the time being, Icola and everyone else stays in the "basically guaranteed" category. I am thinking that things might get interesting after Q14, because it will no longer be possible for anyone to get an perfect 4400 score, but whether or not we see any locks at that point may depend on who enters the weekend races and how they do.
  203.  
  204. Lock for top 64:
  205. none
  206.  
  207. Basically guaranteed: 19th place and up (3645+ points)
  208. Icola
  209. Marco
  210. kariossa
  211. SeYsEy
  212. SariasObject
  213. Riley
  214. favio94
  215. Sponge
  216. MrMario7788
  217. Goomba
  218. mrmartin
  219. Alexis
  220. ArthurOudini
  221. Elagatua
  222. Gogeta
  223. Melrose
  224. JustSam
  225. Xef199221
  226. WoodenBarrel
  227.  
  228. Very likely: 32nd place and up (3541+ points)
  229. Sora
  230. Vodzilla
  231. Flouflouche
  232. YUSoEpic
  233. Cfalcon
  234. Exodus
  235. juwk
  236. rockchalk
  237. Cola
  238. drooness
  239. Jaybone25
  240. docheaps
  241. Nopons
  242.  
  243. Likely: 39th place and up (3425+ points)
  244. Aosuna
  245. Yoyocanari
  246. RyuuKane
  247. BrotinderDose
  248. DylanMeeble
  249. gsk8
  250. Kirox
  251.  
  252.  
  253. This brings us to Challenge Cup! In the Q10 update, the benchmark for top 128 was a score of 3076. Anyone who saw my informal update in #s5-discussion knows that after Q11, that benchmark dropped slightly, to 3062. However, after Q12, it is back up again, now at 3097.
  254.  
  255. This means that anyone who currently has 3097 or more points is considered likely to remain in the top 128. For the first time, this point is now below the top 64 (it's at 67th place). The points for basically guaranteed and very likely are at 43rd place (3344+ points) and 56th place (3205+) respectively, however, a number of the runners in those categories are also in the running for top 64.
  256.  
  257.  
  258. To close out the update, we have the people currently outside the projected top 128 that can move up to that range with some good scores in their final races:
  259.  
  260. WeightyWords 3087 (129th) -> 3256
  261. Chopthetank 3073 (130th) -> 3158.5
  262. MILLEKA__ 3062 (131st) -> 3204.5
  263. Chuckles501 3059 (132nd) -> 3154.5
  264. BruZZler 3037 (134th) -> 3199
  265. kirkq 3023 (136th) -> 3283.5
  266. Aurelius 3008 (138th) -> 3108
  267. UofCWildcat 2999 (139th) -> 3129.5
  268. HasCoffee 2993 (140th) -> 3286.5
  269. barbu 2984 (142nd) -> 3144
  270. Aranha 2972 (143rd) -> 3158
  271. PandaCerise 2968 (144th) -> 3159.5
  272. DeadlyThunder 2947 (148th) -> 3207.5
  273. The Specialize 2934 (150th) -> 3099
  274. xYoshi9100x 2927 (151st) -> 3270.5
  275. Spounsh 2917 (152nd) -> 3125
  276.  
  277.  
  278. Links to past pastes:
  279. Qual #10: https://pastebin.com/NDaNSRJr
  280. Qual #8: https://pastebin.com/3KZiMadd
  281. Qual #6: https://pastebin.com/Cu4k3eNn
  282. Math Explanation: https://pastebin.com/7PJtwtcv
  283.  
  284. S4 comparisons (so you can judge the accuracy of the prediction algorithm for yourself):
  285. Projected benchmarks after each qualifier: https://pastebin.com/GQsh2qSu
  286. Projected rank and score of the top 64 after each qualifier: http://bombch.us/DRr-
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