Winnie's Crazy S5 Predictor - Qual #12

Edit 2021-12-17 - I typo'd the digits on the top 128 benchmark in a few places.  The correct benchmark for top 128 is 3097, not 3079.


12 quals done, and 6 to go!  We've finally reached a point where it may not be possible for some people to get a full 8 races in.  The predictor is aware of this, and adjusts accordingly, but right now, it only impacts people who have only entered one race.  Six is still a lot of races to work with though, so it hasn't had any noticeable impact on the projected standing yet.  But this will be the last time we see one-or-two-race runners in the standings - predictions will take a hit after Q13 (one race) or Q14 (two race), and they will drop out of contention unless they join more races!

This update is longer than the previous ones, because I've included projections all the way down to 150th place.  This way, folks in Challenge Cup contention can see where they fall.  After the standings are the usual sections on people most likely to jump into the top 64, and the safety ratings of people currently in the top 64.  Following that, I've included similar info for the top 128.

Overall, the current projected benchmark for top 64 is 3425 points (down from 3463 after Q10) and the benchmark for top 128 is 3097 points (up from Q10, which was 3076).

And without further ado, the current projected rankings after Qualifier #12:

1. Fmz - 4039
2. Icola - 4014
3. Sponge - 3984
4. Marco - 3956
5. WTHH - 3920
6. CheckRaise - 3894
7. SeYsEy - 3886
8. Goomba - 3865
9. kariossa - 3863
10. MrMario7788 - 3844
11. favio94 - 3829
12. SariasObject - 3817
13. Riley - 3800
14. iceninetm - 3800*
15. Elagatua - 3796
16. Vodzilla - 3787
17. JustSam - 3786
18. mrmartin - 3774
19. Alexis - 3744
20. YUSoEpic - 3743
21. Skyward - 3725
22. ArthurOudini - 3717
23. Exodus - 3708
24. soli - 3704*
25. Melrose - 3699
26. Flouflouche - 3692
27. Jaybone25 - 3689
28. Ryuja - 3677
29. Xef199221 - 3673
30. rockchalk - 3666
31. Cfalcon - 3662
32. Gogeta - 3661
33. Sora - 3656
34. WoodenBarrel - 3645
35. Cokotier - 3644
36. Aosuna - 3633
37. gsk8 - 3607
38. drooness - 3606
39. juwk - 3602
40. Narcottic - 3600
41. docheaps - 3596
42. Yoyocanari - 3593
43. Nopons - 3590
44. FantaTanked - 3585
45. Cola - 3585
46. zelgadissan - 3572*
47. DylanMeeble - 3569
48. Raikaru - 3564*
49. BrotinderDose - 3558
50. HaydeyPatatey - 3551
51. Engel - 3546
52. MikeKatz45 - 3544*
53. sanzeau - 3543
54. GWL - 3512*
55. Xopar - 3507
56. alfalfa - 3506
57. Kirox - 3506
58. Stuck_man - 3505
59. RyuuKane - 3495
60. DareDevinX - 3491
61. PurpleRupees - 3486
62. emosoda - 3432
63. furlim - 3428*
64. Gavaroni - 3425
~~~
65. Silverytp - 3416*
66. Weasel2366 - 3410
67. Markars - 3408
68. EarlWeird - 3390
69. Alaixo - 3386
70. DubuDeccer - 3371
71. Ramond - 3364*
72. DoitiEtok - 3361
73. Braaks - 3360
74. T-RIS - 3356
75. TheLightswoord - 3354
76. TheAranaut - 3354
77. kr3z - 3345
78. Spikevegeta - 3342
79. zorro275 - 3339
80. NewSoupVi - 3338
81. Challensois_ - 3327
82. Oneshot013 - 3323
83. Cloudike - 3322
84. VidyaJames - 3316
85. Koari - 3313
86. Gyraxo - 3312
87. AlexanderHD - 3309
88. MisterKarp - 3302
89. Aughoti - 3300
90. Yoshizor - 3300*
91. Hamsda - 3293
92. West0pher - 3287
93. Jimbo - 3278
94. Digdig - 3274
95. Kevin_818 - 3271
96. KINGsamps0n - 3268
97. Phant - 3268
98. z3ph1r - 3266
99. papy_grant - 3257
100. 2dos - 3256
101. Death King II - 3252
102. SlyRyD - 3248
103. Willx48 - 3248
104. Letsklay - 3243
105. KCNecro - 3216
106. Keipi3 - 3212
107. Tubamann - 3207
108. TomPouce - 3206
109. Bossage - 3205
110. Chimpanreeve - 3200
111. xenoh - 3197
112. Alaszun - 3180
113. jaxstronomy - 3169
114. incoherent - 3165
115. Rafa - 3160
116. Kydams - 3154
117. Tjongejonge_ - 3153
118. tanjo3 - 3142
119. xHaii - 3141
120. Lefty - 3137
121. Egodev - 3120*
122. azder - 3119
123. XthDoctor - 3112
124. PhilippeTitou - 3109
125. Menou - 3104
126. baelnog - 3103
127. Oximan - 3097
128. Hellknight86 - 3097
~~~
129. WeightyWords - 3087
130. Chopthetank - 3073
131. MILLEKA__ - 3062
132. Chuckles501 - 3059
133. Jagger - 3043
134. BruZZler - 3037
135. BearKofca - 3027
136. kirkq - 3023
137. SDGShawn - 3014
138. Aurelius - 3008
139. UofCWildcat - 2999
140. HasCoffee - 2993
141. Kitsune - 2988*
142. barbu - 2984
143. Aranha - 2972
144. PandaCerise - 2968
145. prieR57 - 2968
146. Blueseangfh2 - 2953
147. Bread-kun - 2950
148. DeadlyThunder - 2947
149. ScorpiosFinalGambit - 2946
150. The Specialize - 2934

* indicates racers that have only entered 1 or 2 races


As usual, I wanted to highlight the runners that are currently outside of the projected top 64, but could make it in, if their remaining races are above average.  Everyone here is comfortably in Challenge Cup range, but top 64 is definitely still easily within their reach!

Weasel2366 3410 (66th) -> 3541
Markars 3408 (67th) -> 3529.5
EarlWeird 3390 (68th) -> 3499.5
Alaixo 3386 (69th) -> 3431
DoitiEtok 3361 (72nd) -> 3481.5
Braaks 3360 (73rd) -> 3523.5
T-RIS 3356 (74th) -> 3440
TheLightswoord 3354 (75th) -> 3535
TheAranaut 3354 (75th) -> 3429.5
kr3z 3345 (77th) -> 3470.5
Spikevegeta 3342 (78th) -> 3435
zorro275 3339 (79th) -> 3471
AlexanderHD 3309 (87th) -> 3504
Aughoti 3300 (89th) -> 3462
Hamsda 3293 (91st) -> 3791
West0pher 3287 (92nd) -> 3507.5
Digdig 3274 (94th) -> 3425.5
Kevin_818 3271 (95th) -> 3541
z3ph1r 3266 (98th) -> 3521
SlyRyD 3248 (102nd) -> 3552
KCNecro 3216 (105th) -> 3546
TomPouce 3206 (108th) -> 3471


Finally for the top 64, we have the latest safety ratings.  As mentioned at the top of the paste, the current projected benchmark for top 64 is 3425, so anyone whose current score is 3425 or better is considered likely to make it into brackets.

A quick note about what it means to be mathematically guaranteed a spot in the tournament:

For every person who has entered at least one race, the predictor calculates a theoretical maximum score.  That's the best score they could possibly get, if they scored a perfect 1100 on every single remaining race.  Then, it sorts everybody by their theoretical maximum score.  If a racer's current score is greater than or equal to 64th place of the theoretical max scores, the predictor declares them to be a lock for top 64, because it's literally not possible for enough people to out-score them.

However, I recognize that this is not a completely accurate model of the scoring system.  Although it is true that 1100 is the maximum possible score, it is also not possible for an infinite number of people to achieve this score in every race.  Getting a score of 1100 (or of any score greater than 1000) means having a finish time that is greater than the average of the top 7 finishers.  But the person who comes in 7th can never have a finish time greater than that average, because they have the lowest score being averaged.  So the maximum number of 1100s possible in a single race is 6.  This means that, with only 6 races remaining in the season, there can only be up to 36 1100s total.

With those 36 1100s (and everyone else scoring high 900s), is it possible for 64 or more people to beat Icola's current score of 4014?  My intuition says "no," but it isn't trivial to prove this.  So, for the time being, Icola and everyone else stays in the "basically guaranteed" category.  I am thinking that things might get interesting after Q14, because it will no longer be possible for anyone to get an perfect 4400 score, but whether or not we see any locks at that point may depend on who enters the weekend races and how they do.

Lock for top 64:
none

Basically guaranteed: 19th place and up (3645+ points)
Icola
Marco
kariossa
SeYsEy
SariasObject
Riley
favio94
Sponge
MrMario7788
Goomba
mrmartin
Alexis
ArthurOudini
Elagatua
Gogeta
Melrose
JustSam
Xef199221
WoodenBarrel

Very likely: 32nd place and up (3541+ points)
Sora
Vodzilla
Flouflouche
YUSoEpic
Cfalcon
Exodus
juwk
rockchalk
Cola
drooness
Jaybone25
docheaps
Nopons

Likely: 39th place and up (3425+ points)
Aosuna
Yoyocanari
RyuuKane
BrotinderDose
DylanMeeble
gsk8
Kirox


This brings us to Challenge Cup!  In the Q10 update, the benchmark for top 128 was a score of 3076.  Anyone who saw my informal update in #s5-discussion knows that after Q11, that benchmark dropped slightly, to 3062.  However, after Q12, it is back up again, now at 3097.

This means that anyone who currently has 3097 or more points is considered likely to remain in the top 128.  For the first time, this point is now below the top 64 (it's at 67th place).  The points for basically guaranteed and very likely are at 43rd place (3344+ points) and 56th place (3205+) respectively, however, a number of the runners in those categories are also in the running for top 64.


To close out the update, we have the people currently outside the projected top 128 that can move up to that range with some good scores in their final races:

WeightyWords 3087 (129th) -> 3256
Chopthetank 3073 (130th) -> 3158.5
MILLEKA__ 3062 (131st) -> 3204.5
Chuckles501 3059 (132nd) -> 3154.5
BruZZler 3037 (134th) -> 3199
kirkq 3023 (136th) -> 3283.5
Aurelius 3008 (138th) -> 3108
UofCWildcat 2999 (139th) -> 3129.5
HasCoffee 2993 (140th) -> 3286.5
barbu 2984 (142nd) -> 3144
Aranha 2972 (143rd) -> 3158
PandaCerise 2968 (144th) -> 3159.5
DeadlyThunder 2947 (148th) -> 3207.5
The Specialize 2934 (150th) -> 3099
xYoshi9100x 2927 (151st) -> 3270.5
Spounsh 2917 (152nd) -> 3125


Links to past pastes:
Qual #10: https://pastebin.com/NDaNSRJr
Qual #8: https://pastebin.com/3KZiMadd
Qual #6: https://pastebin.com/Cu4k3eNn
Math Explanation: https://pastebin.com/7PJtwtcv

S4 comparisons (so you can judge the accuracy of the prediction algorithm for yourself):
Projected benchmarks after each qualifier: https://pastebin.com/GQsh2qSu
Projected rank and score of the top 64 after each qualifier: http://bombch.us/DRr-