Topeka Forecast Package from 930PM EDT

324
AXPZ20 KNHC 120218
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Oct 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Broad and elongated low pres near 14N116.5W at 1006 mb, or
several hundred nm SSW of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, will move generally NW around 5-10 kt during the next
few days with the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120
nm either side of a line from 20N107W to 14N120W. An area of
fresh to strong SW winds is noted per earlier scatterometer data
just S of the monsoon trough, roughly from 10N to 15N between
110W and 120W. Regardless of any tropical development, expect
increasing winds and seas to the vicinity of the Revillagigedo
Islands and Baja California Sur offshore waters through early
next week. See latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details.

Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure behind a
cold front in the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend is forecast
to induce gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Sat night into early Sun. Seas during this gale force gap wind
event will build to up to 8-12 ft. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details
on the gale warning.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W, N of 02N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted roughly from 06N to 11N between 88W and 95W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, N of 04N to southern
Mexico, moving W at 10-15 kt. An area of 1007 mb low pressure has
formed along the wave axis near 12N. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 99W
and 107W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 134W/135W from 03N to 17N,
moving W at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is noted.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from western Costa Rica near 10N86W to
low pressure near 12N98.5W to low pressure near 14N116.5W to
11N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 10N to the E of 86W, and also
from 10N to 16N between 109W and 113W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 124W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and for an area of low
pressure near 14N116.5W which has the potential to develop into
a tropical cyclone.

Gulf of California: Northerly flow in the Gulf of California has
diminished to moderate to fresh. Winds will gradually become
light and variable through the weekend with subsiding seas.

Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters
W of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate NW to N
winds. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in northerly swell affecting the waters
N of Punta Eugenia will subside to 4 to 6 ft by later tonight.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will linger between 09N to 11N for the next
few days, with mainly moderate to fresh southerly flow S of it,
and light to gentle W-NW winds N of it. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft,
mainly in southerly swell. The monsoon trough will lift N early
next week with increasing winds and seas across the offshore
waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
a broad area of low pressure near 14N116.5W which has the
potential to develop into a tropical cyclone.

A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity
of the monsoon trough is supporting mainly moderate to fresh
trade winds N of it. Northerly swell that has been propagating
into the NW and N central waters has decayed to below 8 ft.

Looking ahead, a set of large NW swell behind a decaying cold
front will propagate SE of 30N140W by the middle of next week.

$$
Lewitsky