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- 8/7/24-8/14/24 Update, day 895-902 of Russian invasion.
- Belarus/Western Border:
- RU is reportedly moving equipment from Belarus to support operations in the Kursk region. No evidence of enemy activity is observed or currently expected on the Belarusian border.
- Russian railway ops from Belarus are entirely focusing on troop transports leading to a stoppage of almost all other railway logistics. There is an ongoing locomotive (leading train which powers the whole assembly) shortage in RU, for a variety of reasons (supplies, manpower, organization) which is being exacterabated. The majority of the RU rail service is being tapped for this purpose, leading to large quantities of train cars sitting vacant on tracks and causing impediments.
- This is confirmed in a telegram sent to the Belarusian Rail Service.
- The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus threatened to close the Ukrainian embassy in Minsk
- Reportedly 9 Shaheds flew into Belarus from July 11 to July 31:
- 1 exploded and crashed in Belarus;
- 7 flew to the territory of Ukraine;
- the fate of another is unknown.
- Belarus claimed to have shot down a UA drone recently and expressed condemnation and threats.
- UA has informed that the humanitarian corridor between Volyn and Belarus remains open for UA nationals who are fleeing from RU occupied territory, as the other corridor between RU and Sumy oblast is now under shelling.
- UA has implemented a new digital checkpoint system for busses on the Romanian border, the moldovan border, and the largest Polish checkpoint. This reduces time spent waiting dramatically.
- From August 13, men from Ukraine who have not been removed from the military register or who have not updated their military data will not be able to issue a driver's license, exchange it or register their cars abroad
- Volyn Oblast in W UA will begin issuing mobilization summons by mail, and consider that appropriate service to assign responsibility to the receiving party
- Kyiv/Central Ukraine:
- On August 14th UA intercepted 0/2 cruise missiles and 17/23 Shaheds overnight, as RU targeted energy infrastructure.
- On August 13th UA intercepted 0/2 ballistic missiles and 30/38 shaheds.
- On August 11th, UA intecepted 53/57 Shaheds and 0/4 DPRK ballistic missiles. A strike on a house in Brovary killed 2 residents and wounded 3 others.
- Power outages are not expected until Mid-october per UA energy supplier, due to restoration of generation capabilities and cooling weather.
- A man was arrested in Kyiv for selling an RPG online. Another man was charged with arson on a military vehicle, on offer of payment via a telegram channel.
- The UA MoD has begun issuing winter equipment to the ZSU. Some $63 million USD of clothes are to be issued by end of year.
- The Deputy UA minister of Energy was arrested for taking a half-million USD bribe, and dismissed from his post. He was extorted to bring earthmoving and mining equipment from the frontline regions to a Lviv-based conglomerate.
- The UA Mod has reportedly been recycling precious metals from destroyed RU equipment, making some $600,000 USD this year recycling Gold, Silver, and Platinum. The initiative is expected to raise over $1 million USD by end of year.
- UA charged a group for embezzling some $291,000 USD worth of funds intended for tank dynamic protection by artificially raising component prices.
- UA recieved 4.2 billion Euros under the EU support framework for budgetary and humanitarian support.
- UA has allocated some $60 million USD for building underground shelters for students this year, with the goal of allowing some 300,000 students to return to in-person learning by end of year. Having toured one of these underground facilities, I can confirm they are both well protected from blasts (to the level of many UA reinforced command bunkers) and surprisingly comfortable and spacious.
- Some 80% of surveyed UA citizens believe that the economic situation has worsened over the last year. The material situation of the family in 60% of respondents worsened, in 35% it did not change, and it improved for 4%
- US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Jim O'Brien visited Ukraine. US Senator Lindsey Graham and Ruchard Blumenthal (R and D) visited Kyiv and praised the Kursk operation. They expressed the desire to enshrine UA support in law, seperate of the US President.
- Northeast Ukraine/Kharkiv city:
- RU launched 5 assaults in the Vovchansk area yesterday. UA continues to grind out the NW sector of Vovchansk, as UA was observed using MLRS fire on the sector. Drone strikes abound in the center of the city, and the clear frontlines remain fairly stagnant.
- UA continues efforts to push E of Hlyboke, where a sizable RU armored offensive was destroyed by drone and artillery.
- UA deep strikes have interdicted vehicle logistics across the border into Belgorod region.
- RU is reportedly heavily using tactical and strategic drones for recon and strikes in the Kharkiv region, compared to other sectors.
- UA has announced a restriction in civilian movement within 20km of the Sumy border, due to ongoing combat operations and movement of military equipment. RU launched some 12 strikes into Sumy oblast yesterday, and some 40-50 glide bombs are used per day (primarily of the Fab-500 variety).
- RU fired a missile into energy infrastructure in Sumy city.
- RU fired DPRK supplied missiles at Bohodukhiv, NW of Kharkiv. Additionally, RU fired S-300 missiles into the sae region, causing a forest fire.
- RU has reportedly withdrawn reserve combat troops due for Vovchansk and Lipetsk, and redirected them to Kursk.
- RU attacked near Vovchansk with FPV drones, killing a Hospitaliers medic and wounding the driver.
- Kursk offensive:
- To the NW, UA continues to push on Koronevo with goals to advance along the highway towards Rylsk. Thus far, no positive control over Koronevo is observed as the streets are ghostly empty. UA recon forces are apparently along the highway to the S of Koronevko, only bounded by the rivers.
- To the N, UA forces continue efforts to push along the hills and rivers to Kromoskie Byki along the N highway from Sudzha. RU forces have been vizualized entrenching around Lgov, another major logistical hub some 45 km inside RU.
- UA continues efforts to advance in Kursk, taking Martynovka to the NE as RU forces withdraw towards Bolshoe Soldatskye, a forming RU operational base.
- To the E of Sudzha the situation is less clear, with a UA strike towards Giri some 20 km E apparently being stopped and at least one BTR-4 captured and others destroyed.
- UA troop presence remains just W of Giri, near Kamyshnoye.
- UA is reportedly functionally in control of Sudzha but is conducting clearing operations on the E of the city, as RU launches counterattacks near Bondareka.
- UA operations here have already interdicted one significant RU rail line to Belgorod.
- Per UA CiC Syrski, UA controls some 74 settlements in the ongoing Kursk operation, controlling or skirmishing approximately 1000 square KM. Several hundred RU soldiers, caught in disarray with poor comms, have surrendered in the dynamic operation. UA has stated it is not interested in taking the territory of Kursk, and is seeking to limit the threat towards Sumy which has suffered some 2000 strikes so far this summer.
- Per UA soldiers, the advance has slowed down in the directon of Kursk proper as UA forces on some axis have shifted to entrenching their positions in expectation of RU action. Industrial excavators are observed operating on both sides.
- The same UA soldiers report that they experienced greater success then anticipated, given some disastrous prior attempts which resulted in heavy losses in Belgorod this year due to OPSEC violations. Morale is fairly high, with jokes about "traveling abroad during martial law" abounding.
- RU is reportedly moving equipment from Belarus and troops from Kaliningrad to support defensive operations in the Kursk region.
- UA forces captured the RU 28th Battalion's Command Post and videotaped themselves going through documents and materials left behind.
- RU currently seeks (per Putin's proclamations) some 120,000 "combat soldiers" to repel the UA incursion, but is unlikely to be able to move such troops around on short order.
- UA reportedly shot down an Su-34 in the skies of Kursk overnight. UA has interdicted at leat 2 helicopters with drones so far.
- RU Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov declared a state of emergency for Belgorod Region, and is requesting a federal state of emergency. Shelters are beginning to be set up, with over 300 planned.
- UA alleges the RU special services are formulating information warfare elements to blame war crimes on UA forces, specifically against RU civilian population in occupied areas of Kursk. UA has recently highlighted its efforts to supply civilians in occupied Suzha, which is currently the largest town controlled by UA forces. Some 100 people are believed to remain in the town.
- RU re-released footage of an UA SOF unit killing RU soldiers in CQB in a trench last year, and labeled it as a succesful RU op in Kursk. Additionally, they re-published a number of airstrike videos on behalf of the RU MoD.
- RU civilians in Kursk have been complaining online about poor management of evacuation efforts on the RU side, as ticket prices from Kursk to Moscow have dramatically risen and train carrying capacities have been doubled to handle the outflow.
- Kupyansk/Lyman:
- RU launched 10 attacks towards Kupyansk, and 21 towards Lyman.
- RU has increasingly been using drones towards Kupyansk, apparently hitting civilians in the city outskirts.
- RU advanced near Tabaivka this week, pushing along the heavily forested region through the lowlands.
- RU efforts towards Lyman have generated no successes in the last week, with isolated shelling around the Zherebets river valley and long range lancet strikes SE of Lyman.
- Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar
- UA repelled 8 assaults towards Siversk over the last day. This area is assessed as a lower priority, where RU is seeking to find opportunities to later exploit, rather then a major focus towards Slovyansk.
- Large MLRS fire has been observed in the siversk region.
- RU launched 11 attacks near Chasiv yar, with no confirmed gains across the canal proper. Drone strikes continue on both sides, with RU tanks and SPG's targeted in Bakhmut ruins.
- UA stated there is some 2200 children remaining in areas around Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk regions who are under mandatory evacuation, and some 3,660 have already been evacuated from 86 towns.
- Toretsk/Kostyantynivka:
- RU launched 8 attacks towards Toretsk.
- RU advanced to the SE of Toretsk from Pivdenne, as well as to the S of Niu York. In Niu York proper, urban fighting with grenades (either thrown or via drone) is among the most common strikes of the day. There remains heavy FPV drone usage, only partially abated by vehicle EW.
- RU forces to the E of Toretsk are actively using TOS thermobarics in addition to glide bombs.
- RU recon forces are allegedly mining elements of the UA backline here, leading to vehicle losses. UA airstrikes on the elevated residential district continue to target the RU strongpoint here which has observation and limited control over the rest of the town.
- About 3,000 civilians remain in the frontline town of Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast. Every day from 10 to 15 people are evacuated from the town.
- RU shelled the Kostyantynivka shopping mall/Nova Poshta 1 on August 9th, killing 14 and wounding 43 people. The mall itself took the brunt of the blast, as the air launched missile itself entered just a few meters away from the primary post office for the frontline city. It appears that RU was seeking to target the main post office used for shipments to the city.
- RU has continued to fire missiles into Kostyantynivka, which serves the central UA military hub for both Chasiv Yar and Toretsk.
- UA is using Robot dogs from the UK on the frontline, with video footage emerging from Toretsk. The dogs have a radius of 3.5km, remote drone viewing capability, and are used principally for urban recon and EOD.
- Pokrovsk:
- RU continues to focus the bulk of its activity towards Pokrovsk, launching 41 assaults in the last day.
- RU forces advanced along the highway from Prohres towards Hrodivka, aided by MLRS and drone strikes, as well as along the SW direction towards Mykolaivka.
- UA drone strikes continue to range along the road from Ocherytne west.
- UA forces in the 110th Brigade report that RU efforts in the Pokrovsk AO have not noticably decreased, although shelling volume and drone usage has minimally decreased. RU is principally using the "cockroach" tactics of small infantry groups moving to a forward location, amassing, and then conducting an assault so as not to take casualities during large groups or formations.
- RU troops of the 810th Naval Infantry (thrice destroyed and reconsituted) are reportedly being transferred from here to Kursk.
- UA expressed that of some 530 drone dropped attacks reported per day in the SE AO, some 11 are CS/CN grenades to flush troops out of cover.
- Donetsk city/Occupied regions:
- RU launched some 8 assaults to the SW of Marinka near Kostyantynivka.
- RU forces raised a flag in the ruins of Nevelske, SW of Pervomaiske.
- RU continues to skirmish over Krasnohorivka, with drone attacks on the W side of the city residential district. It is evidentally not fully secured, and no RU gains have been observed since late july.
- RU vehicles were seen abandoned and destroyed W of Marinka in a failed assault along the highway near the Heorhiivka lakes.
- Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:
- Yesterday RU launched 386 strikes on 7 settlements in Zaporizhzhia, 247 times with drones and 126 times with artillery.
- RU continues efforts to push around Robotyne, attacking 2 times. UA continues to launch deep strikes towards Tokmak.
- RU has redeployed some troops near Orichiv to Kursk.
- RU forces at the ZNPP apparently set fire to a significant amount of refuse in one of the offline cooing towers, causing concern as smoke rose about the largest nuclear plant in europe. No radiation release was detected, and IAEA observers were prevented from seeing the site.
- Kherson:
- RU launched 8 assaults on UA positions on the Dnipro river islands. UA drone strikes across the river have apparently reduced, as RU MLRS fire continues sporadically along the river islands and riverside, causing civilian casualities. RU specifically targets the SW Korabel and Ostriv districts.
- UA has begun intercepting RU strategic drones in the skies above Kherson, mainly to the E of the city. This is critical given the significant number of RU Orlans and Supercam drones active.
- 4 firefighters were injured in an RU doubletap drone attack in Stanislav.
- RU burned down a church in Antonivka with drone dropped munitions. Another fire was started NW of Kherson by RU shelling.
- UA FPV drones have been seen targeting additional RU forces on the Kinburn spit, as a UA maritime raid raised flags there.
- Since the beginning of the de-occupation in the right-bank Kherson region, explosives deminers have demined more than 335 square km.
- Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:
- Ru fired an Iskander missile into Odesa on August 11th, and again tonight towards port infrastructure.
- There were UA drone strikes near Simferopol in Crimea over the last week.
- On the night of August 10, the UA navy struck a gas platform in the Black sea being used as an OP by RU forces.
- UA naval drones destroyed an RU combat boat of the Tunets type and damaged several more near Crimea at Chornomorskyi.
- There is currently 1 RU ship carrying up to 4 Kalibrs in the black sea.
- Russia:
- UA launched a significant drone strike on 4 different RU airfields in Voronezh, Kursk, Savasleyka and Borisoglebsk, reportedly causing several explosions and inflicting damage on a number of buildings and unknown quantity of material.
- General:
- Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:
- 1240x soldiers (Total 594,400 day avg 1,147 last 7 days)
- 17x APC
- 21x Tank
- 62x Artillery (5xMLRS)
- 1x Air Defense
- 0x Aircraft
- 56x vehicles
- 57x UAV
- estimated cost: $114 million USD
- total estimated cost- $92.5 Million/day per last 30 days, $2.8 Billion USD over last 30 days.
- Overseas:
- UA won 12 medals at the Paris olympics, and drew attention to the 480 UA professional atheletes who have been killed thus far in the war.
- The United States announced the provision of an additional package of military aid to Ukraine in the amount of about 125 million dollars. In particular, it will include ammunition for HIMARS and Stinger missiles.
- Czechia will hold a meeting specifically focusing on support and training operations under the NATO umbrella for UA, rather then under different countries individual banners.
- UA dog handlers will be involved in the disposal of landmines and unexploded ordnance as part of a project financed by a grant of 2 million euros from the European Commission's Foreign Policy Instruments
- Germany issued an arrest warrant for a UA diving instructor who is alleged to be part of a UA team that blew up the Nordstream-2 pipeline 2 years ago. Two UA women are also suspected as being part of the team.
- The German defense company Rheinmetall RHMG will deliver 14 Leopard 2A4 MBT to the Czech Republic as part of an exchange mechanism to support UA, who will receive Czech equipment.
- Latvia will transfer some 500 more drones to Ukraine under the drone support coalition.
- UA transferred some 1000 tons of grain to Gaza, with plans to send an additional 6,000. Every ton of grain can feed approximately 100 people for a month.
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