Austria AAR from EOG 5b

Spring, 1901: Welp, I'm Austria-Hungary. I keep getting all the really good countries in these EOG games.

Oh well, hopefully the level of play in this game is high enough that I might actually have a chance of survival.

I think I need to go with the traditional Austrian gunboat opening. I don't yet know if Russia is going to be as friendly to me as I was to Austria as Russia in EOG game 4. If I block him in Galicia in the Spring, that will protect my home centers, and then maybe I'll support him in on turn Fall to show solidarity or something. IDK; we'll see what ends up happening.

As for Italy, I just need to trust him to leave me be. Hopefully he will.

So,

F Tri -> Alb
A Bud -> Ser
A Vie -> Gal

22 Feb 2021	Autumn, 1901: Well, everyone made the "right" opening moves, according to Brotherbored. That's good--it means I have a chance of survival here.

The question is what I do next. Turkey has demonstrated a possible willingness to work with me by playing the "noncommittal" opening. And I have usually seen that opening turn into an "attack Russia" opening, especially in gunboat. So the question is: do I try to get him on my side? If so, how?

I think I should definitely TRY to get him on my side, at least at first. I'll probably betray him the moment I have an opportunity to do so (leaving Turkey alone for too long is bad for Austria's health), but if I can get him to go after Russia first, that would be very good for me.

However... Italy is angling towards a Lepanto, which will make Turkey much more likely to ally Russia. I could easily see a move to Con by Turkey's fleet next turn. And I think I would prefer Italy as an ally to Turkey in the long term. I have played Turkey a lot in gunboat lately, and I have betrayed Austria every single time. I would expect nothing less of this player, if he's as good as he seems.

So, for now, I'll keep blocking Galicia and spend both units to grab Greece. We'll see what happens next turn. If Turkey allies Russia, I'll play out the Lepanto with Italy. If Turkey attacks Russia, even better for me.

23 Feb 2021	Autumn, 1901: Well, that's hardly surprising. Okay, so it's Juggernaut vs. Lepanto. I'll play my part.

I need to build two armies; hopefully that won't spook Italy. I doubt it will; he would need to think I was a very stupid player to attack him with both Turkey and Russia at my door. Hopefully next turn I can break into Galicia. I can also lock down Bulgaria, hopefully allowing Italy into the Aegean or Mediterranean (Turkey's undoubtedly going to build a fleet, so it's 50/50).

France is playing a strong defensive game. Overall, I think that's good for me. It will keep England and Germany on the same side, not merely against France but hopefully Russia as well. They'll need to work together against him, because with two builds he's going to be a threat in the North as well as the South.

Odd (and not good for me) that Germany should let Russia into Sweden when England opened anti-French. Hopefully he will reverse his initial decision in the coming turns. He'll certainly have a build to spare for it.

I wonder where England will build. I'm hoping Edinburgh, but Liverpool is probably more likely.

Anyway, next turn is going to be a big one. At the moment, I think I basically like what I'm seeing. Strong Germany is good, and friendly Italy is good too. The central triple action might be real. Strong France is also neutral-to-good. But strong Russia is bad, as is the fact that we're facing a juggernaut. We'll have to see how things shake out next.

25 Feb 2021	Autumn, 1902: Retroactive thoughts on Spring 1902:

I guessed (correctly) that Russia would take the "safe" move of Warsaw to Galicia supported by Rumania, which would be covered by Sevastopol. Therefore, I tapped Rum with Serbia while pushing into Gal with both Budapest and Vienna and backfilled Budapest with Vienna.

I guessed (incorrectly) that Turkey would cover Bulgaria. I didn't know what Italy would do, but I did guess (again, incorrectly) that he would attempt to push into either the Aegean or the Eastern Med. Since Greece wasn't doing anything else, I decided to offer Italy a support into the Aegean, thinking there was a 50/50 chance he would get in.

25 Feb 2021	Autumn, 1902: Now:

France continues to play a strong defense, but he can't endure against all three attackers forever. I give him maybe three more turns before he's reduced to just Portugal.

Italy has backed off the Lepanto. Probably wise for him, but bad for me. Even if he doesn't want to try for the Lepanto, I hope he remains my ally. I think the two Turkish fleets bordering the Ionian should help keep him loyal. If he sees me struggling, he might very easily just decide to hop onboard and grab what spoils he can.

He'd better not; if that happens, I'll intentionally throw to the juggernaut.

I do not like my position at all. I can't defend against every possible attack by Turkey and Russia, and I can't currently make any progress against Turkey at all. Nor do I have any chance of taking Rumania this turn. I'm in a bad spot.

The good news is that Russia will almost certainly cover Rumania until he can retake Galicia. I doubt I need to fear an attack on Serbia for this turn.

But the fact remains that I can't outguess the juggernaut forever. I need to do something drastic if I want to survive.

And I think I know what it is: I need to attack Warsaw and hope Germany supports me in.

I actually think there's a fairly good shot he will. He is moving against Russia, but clearly, he knows his Prussia army can't do anything on its own. And he can't possibly expect that I will support him, but he might offer a support to me on the off chance I take it.

Is it a long shot? Yes, but I'm playing Austria--I need to take long shots.

So, I'll go for Warsaw with Galicia, and hit Galicia with both Budapest and Vienna. I'm not going to cover Serbia, because if I'm right, I won't need to, and keeping Galicia empty will be critical for my ability to hold Warsaw next turn. And if I'm wrong, I'm screwed anyway, so who cares?

Here goes nothing. For the Archduke!

27 Feb 2021	Spring, 1903: Well, this is an interesting turn of events.

Germany didn't support me into Warsaw as I had hoped, but neither did Russia attack Galicia. And now Germany is going all-in against Russia. Good.

Italy wants me to attack Bulgaria. But doing so would be incredibly risky, and gain me little even if it succeeded; I would lose Greece for it. So no, I can't go after Buglaria just yet.

I can, however, go for Russia. I just need to count on Italy's goodwill for two more turns, and I should be able to get Rumania. Russia can't simultaneously defend against me and Germany.

I think this is my chance to grab Rumania. I'm guessing that Russia will not attack Galicia (he'll need that Ukraine unit for defense against Germany), so I'll go:

Budapest to Rum with support from Gal and Ser.

Greece can rely on Italy's support-hold (hopefully).

Vienna can backfill Budapest and be in position to protect Rumania next turn.

The two ways this could fail are if Turkey decides to tap Serbia or if Italy fails to protect Greece. I think the latter is unlikely; what else would Italy do with his fleet? And he'll at least want to keep the possibility of an alliance with me open for at least a turn more, seeing if I go along with his request to attack Turkey.

Turkey tapping Ser, on the other hand, is certainly plausible. It's a move he could get away with, so to speak, even if it accomplished nothing. But unfortunately that's a risk I'll need to take. This is my best chance to get a sixth center, while Russia's defenses are confused dealing with Germany. I need to take the opportunity while I have it, and I can't afford to make the capture with Serbia. Here's hoping Turkey continues to focus on Greece instead of trying to cover his ally.
1 Mar 2021	Autumn, 1903: Well, crap.

It's a darn shame, too, because my plan was working to a T. If not for the Italian attack, I would probably hold Rumania this turn.

But no; Italy has chosen to attack. My only recourse now is to throw to the juggernaut.

I'm going to hand Greece and Serbia over to Turkey this turn, and block Italy's potential attempt on Vienna. Italy will get Trieste off me, but if Turkey makes the same moves this turn as last, he'll be facing a much more powerful Turkey. Maybe he'll reconsider his attack. If he doesn't, well, I all I can really do is to punish Italy for the backstab.

1 Mar 2021	Autumn, 1903: On second though, I'm going to hold Serbia, both because it gives me ever so slight a better chance of survival, and because it will enable me to defend myself better against Italy next turn, and because I'm not sure Turkey's even going to go for it. So, my final moves:

Gal -> Boh
Bud -> Vie
Ser -> Bud
Rum -> Ser
Gre -> Alb

1 Mar 2021	Autumn, 1903: On third thought, I'm going to lose a unit, so getting Gal into position for defense is pointless. I'll have Gal support the Vienna move instead, so that the rest of my moves go properly.

2 Mar 2021	Autumn, 1903: Well, that's too bad. I could have gotten Rumania by just staying there.

On the plus side, Russia stabbing Turkey means that neither got a build. Also, Germany seems to be helping me, although who knows if that will continue with France knocking on Belgium's door.

I still think I'll be summarily eliminated here. But I'll fight desperately to survive for as long as I can.

I'll drop Gal and Alb; next turn, I anchor the Italian in place with a double-supported attack. Hopefully Turkey leaves me alone while he goes and deals with Russia. If not, well, I still don't want Italy benefitting from his stab any further. I'd much rather Turkey gain my territory. Italy will gain a center, but it will be one he has to spend all of his resources defending.

Maybe I'll be helped by Turkey. Maybe he'll eat me instead. Either way, Italy will pay.

2 Mar 2021	Spring, 1904: Now I'm actually thinking, I need to support-hold Vienna to resist Italy. But that leaves Serbia free. So, what to do with Serbia?

I have an interesting idea: why not ally Russia? He could use the help against Turkey, and Turkey cannot go after both of us simultaneously.

No; the only unit I can move is Serbia. Even getting a capture would gain me nothing. I can't build new units.

I'll just hold the line and see what happens. I'll move to Albania in case Italy tries to convoy there.

2 Mar 2021	Spring, 1904: Vienna will support Germany to Tyrolia. I might get lucky.

6 Mar 2021	Spring, 1905: Well, crap. Italy's going to get all of my centers after all.

Well played, my friend. I could have done a better job defending. I shouldn't have surrendered Rumania, for one thing.

Oh well. I'll accept my defeat.