API tools faq
paste
Guest User

Black-market survival analysis: 2014

a guest
Jan 2nd, 2015
174
0
Never
Add comment
Not a member of Pastebin yet? Sign Up, it unlocks many cool features!
text 5.63 KB | None | 0 0
raw download clone embed print report
  1. library(XML)
  2. black <- readHTMLTable("http://www.gwern.net/Black-market%20survival", colClasses = c("character", "factor", "factor", "logical",
  3. "factor", "logical", "character", "logical", "logical",
  4. "factor", "factor", "logical", "logical",
  5. "integer", "logical",
  6. "character"))[[1]]
  7. black[black$Codebase=="",]$Codebase <- NA
  8. black$Start <- as.Date(black$Start); black$End <- as.Date(black$End)
  9. black[is.na(black$End),]$End <- Sys.Date() # assuming the table is up to date
  10. black$Age <- black$End - black$Start
  11. black$Age <- as.integer(black$End - black$Start)
  12.  
  13. # for competing-risks modeling
  14. levels(black$Closure) <- c("alive", "hacked", "raided", "scam", "voluntary") # sets "" to "alive"
  15.  
  16. sum(sort(as.Date(black$Start)) >= as.Date("2014-01-01"))
  17. # [1] 43
  18. sort(black[as.Date(black$Start) >= as.Date("2014-01-01"),]$Market)
  19. # [1] 1776 Abraxas Alpaca Marketplace
  20. # [4] AlphaBay Andromeda Area51
  21. # [7] Armory Vendor Market BlackBank Market Black Goblin Market
  22. # [10] Breaking Bad Cannabis Road Cannabis Road 2
  23. # [13] Cannabis Road 3 Cantina Cloud-Nine
  24. # [16] DarkBay Darknet Nation Deepzon
  25. # [19] Diabolus Doge Road drugslist
  26. # [22] evolution EXXTACY Freedom Market
  27. # [25] GreyRoad Hansa Hydra
  28. # [28] Middle Earth Marketplace Mr Nice Guy Nucleus Marketplace
  29. # [31] Onionshop Panacea Pigeon Market
  30. # [34] Red Sun Marketplace Sanitarium Market Silk Street
  31. # [37] TOM Topix 2 TorBazaar
  32. # [40] TorEscrow Tortuga 2 Underground Market
  33. # [43] Utopia
  34. length(black[black$End > as.Date("2014-01-01") & black$End < as.Date("2015-01-01"),]$Market)
  35. # [1] 46
  36. sort(black[black$End > as.Date("2014-01-01") & black$End < as.Date("2015-01-01"),]$Market)
  37. # [1] 1776 Alpaca Marketplace Andromeda Armory Vendor Market
  38. # [5] BlackBox Market Black Goblin Market Black Services Market Blue Sky
  39. # [9] Breaking Bad BuyItNow Cannabis Road Cannabis Road 2
  40. # [13] Cannabis Road 3 Cantina Cloud-Nine DarkBay
  41. # [17] Darknet Nation Deepzon Doge Road drugslist
  42. # [21] EXXTACY FreeBay Freedom Market GreyRoad
  43. # [25] Hansa Hydra Mr Nice Guy Onionshop
  44. # [29] Pandora Pigeon Market Pirate Market Red Sun Marketplace
  45. # [33] Sanitarium Market Silk Road 2 Silk Street The Marketplace
  46. # [37] TOM Topix 2 TorBay TorBazaar
  47. # [41] TorEscrow Tortuga Tortuga 2 Underground Market
  48. # [45] Utopia White Rabbit
  49.  
  50.  
  51. sort(table(black[as.Date(black$End) >= as.Date("2014-01-01"),]$Closure))
  52. # raided hacked alive scam voluntary
  53. # 6 9 12 12 20
  54.  
  55. library(survival)
  56. summary(survfit(Surv(Age, Alive, type="right") ~ 1, data=black))
  57. # time n.risk n.event survival std.err lower 95% CI upper 95% CI
  58. # 11 58 1 0.98276 0.017092 0.949823 1.00000
  59. # 20 54 1 0.96456 0.024627 0.917479 1.00000
  60. # 67 38 1 0.93918 0.034675 0.873615 1.00000
  61. # 70 37 1 0.91379 0.042013 0.835050 0.99996
  62. # 81 35 1 0.88768 0.048248 0.797983 0.98747
  63. # 194 23 1 0.84909 0.059621 0.739919 0.97437
  64. # 196 22 1 0.81049 0.068269 0.687151 0.95598
  65. # 331 10 1 0.72945 0.098424 0.559938 0.95027
  66. # 353 7 1 0.62524 0.128160 0.418378 0.93438
  67. # 369 5 1 0.50019 0.151728 0.276014 0.90644
  68. # 395 4 1 0.37514 0.157090 0.165105 0.85238
  69. # 413 3 1 0.25010 0.146261 0.079489 0.78688
  70. plot(survfit(Surv(Age, Alive, type="right") ~ 1, data=black))
  71. # https://i.imgur.com/OamVzjO.png
  72.  
  73. library(cmprsk)
  74. blackc <- with(black, cuminc(Age, Closure, cencode="alive")); blackc
  75. # Estimates and Variances:
  76. # $est
  77. # 200 400 600 800
  78. # 1 hacked 0.1389819240 0.138981924 0.138981924 0.138981924
  79. # 1 raided 0.0149253731 0.114655933 0.114655933 0.114655933
  80. # 1 scam 0.2069723259 0.299188940 0.299188940 0.299188940
  81. # 1 voluntary 0.2702539221 0.327633148 0.327633148 0.327633148
  82. #
  83. # $var
  84. # 200 400 600 800
  85. # 1 hacked 0.001900471515 0.00190047151 0.00190047151 0.00190047151
  86. # 1 raided 0.000223039082 0.00212491076 0.00212491076 0.00212491076
  87. # 1 scam 0.002707980885 0.00366455525 0.00366455525 0.00366455525
  88. # 1 voluntary 0.003240020448 0.00383384036 0.00383384036 0.00383384036
  89.  
  90. # risk of shut down by cause:
  91. plot(blackc, lty=1, color=c(1:4), xlab="Days")
  92. # https://i.imgur.com/xZE8O5n.png
Advertisement
Add Comment
Please, Sign In to add comment
Public Pastes
We use cookies for various purposes including analytics. By continuing to use Pastebin, you agree to our use of cookies as described in the Cookies Policy.  OK, I Understand
Not a member of Pastebin yet?
Sign Up, it unlocks many cool features!