LMND analysis

Why LMND is not a good buy IMO:

• Searches on LinkedIn, Google Scholar, dblp did not show anyone in LMND with publications in top AI focused venues like AAAI, PAMI, ICML, CVPR, ICCV, etc. They have a few Neuroscience and Psychology PhDs, but these disciplines may lack the hardcore engineering experience conferred by a pedigree in Computer Science.

	These are LMND tech leads:
	- https://www.linkedin.com/in/nathaniel-kohn
	- https://www.linkedin.com/in/shiri-simon-segal-325b5275/ <- probably the strongest AI person, but not purebred.
	- https://www.linkedin.com/in/markkoltnuk/
	- https://www.linkedin.com/in/maxim-orlov-6997751/

	These are the tech leads of serious AI companies. Checkout their impressive publications:
	- https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=l8WuQJgAAAAJ&hl=en (TSLA)
	- https://scholar.google.com.hk/citations?user=AUhj438AAAAJ&hl=en (NIO)

•  In 2019, LMND spent about 8x more on sales and marketing (mainly Facebook ads), compared to R&D. This does not look healthy.

	- https://sec.report/Document/0001047469-20-003926/#cu40510_our_lemonade_stand_a_letter_from_our_co-founders
	- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lmnd/financials/

	See other companies ratios:
	- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/goog/financials/
	- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/financials/
	- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/spce/financials/
	- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nio/financials/
	- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nflx/financials/

• If they have strong reasons to blitzscale, they should make it clear and be more transparent on it.

• It appears that sales and marketing expense is the main culprit for their losses.
Can they scale and maintain their customer base organically?

• As a customer, I would rather have lower premiums from a company that skimps on ads, instead of higher premiums from a company that gives most of my money to Facebook. Why have they not worked in this direction?

• If they are serious about AI, they will know exactly what to present to make a convincing case for investors with AI experience, yet not give out subtle black magic details to make it easily replicated. For now, I think AI is more of a marketing term / icing on the cake for them.

• I am not too concerned about their donations: they spend about 80x more on marketing and sales than on charity.
In fact, donating to charity looks far more efficient than buying advertisements!

• Analysts may have better judgement on LMND compared to TSLA. Insurance is a finance game. EVs are an engineering game. If their lead IPO underwriter is pessimistic on their prospects, it looks like a cause for concern.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lemonade-falls-8-credit-suisse-111029158.html

• How far can we trust Chicken Genius Singapore (CGS) on their AI?
Note: he may be inaccurate on their AI getting "exponentially better" with more data points.
The marginal improvement in accuracy typically diminishes for every additional data point.
Pushing a model from 80%->90% accuracy requires way more data than going from 20%->30% accuracy.

• At the point of writing, I am neither short nor long LMND.

• For me to invest, I want to see:
	1) A drastic cut down of sales and marketing expenses to near-zero, while achieving high organic word-of-mouth growth.
	2) A technical overview on their AI pipelines and architectures.

• For now, their long term prospects seem very unclear.

• If LMND stock somehow shoots up from here, I am perfectly OK with it. After all, anything can happen.

• Everything above are just my own opinions and should never be taken as financial advice. I may be completely wrong. Everything here could be just the ramblings of a madman. Do your own research.