event 201 segment 3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWRmlumcN_s


So skipped the second part. Here a transcript [https://pastebin.com/0w37S8D3].


tldr: We cant let the financial sector crash. There has to be a middle ground between combating the pandemic and saving the economy. It might otherwise be worse then if we had just ignored everything. Everyone agrees that their industry is the most important one. Governments dont have enough funds, will either have to take the biggest bailout ever or somehow convince big money to save the planet. For that you however need accountability and predictions of great return of investments. Which leads to the biggest problem: Social unrest and instability. high risk of governments failing which would negatively impact the ability to stop the spread of the virus. The governments in question are also extremely high risk lenders and make transparency about the use of funds impossible. Which in turn ruins investor confidence.


# Mock Interview to the current state

Are we out of money? not YET

Thesis: we cant afford to shut down the economy, we might have to let it spread

balance is paramount

emergency funding ran out-> new mechanism

decision: focus on health or prop up economy.

histories largest bailout might be required

prediction 11% gdp decline 1 year in, 25% 2 year in [https://youtu.be/rWRmlumcN_s?t=316]

prolonged slower growth

expecting much deeper depression then the great depression, lasting longer


IMF and world bank dont have enough money to get us out of this crisis. Currently 185 bn in funds pro year

would require 400bn dollars just to boast healthcare system in low and middle income countries

economic crisis leads to collapse of national governments in poverty high areas.

the governments in question are also historically high risk lenders

Donors collectively are assumed to have 100bn in donations and loans, how to distribute those?

# Question

[https://youtu.be/rWRmlumcN_s?t=525]

1 directly to hospitals
2 to companies doing work combating the pandemic (vaccine , masks and so on)
3 stabilizing governments who falter
4 industries or companies who might take down the global economy who are to big to fail



# Discussion starts:

banker: higher economic impact on developed countries was expected, focus on combating the pandemic, if we cant combat this the point of the economy is moot.

leave economic problems to the national governments, most of the developed world has the ability to lend

world bank: [https://youtu.be/rWRmlumcN_s?t=703] ook at the g20 finance minister proposal. there are 15 tn dollars in zero or negative interest rate settings. approach the proprietors to use some of that, (half a trillion for example) to stabilize things might be worth a suggestion.

what are national government contingency capabilities. many have no search capabilities to identify infected.

also find out where value for money is. implementation capabilities and are they actually in a position to add value. value as in stopping the pandemic as well as sustaining lively hoods. healthy tensions. unemployment and downturn also cause indirect health crisis. Many more people might be worse affected by closures and shutdowns then by the pandemic

chinese cdc: prioritize the funds through centralized and coordinated effort. not in the system (UN or otherwise). centralize effort not centralize the system. coordinated efforts.

Hotel sector:  hotelsector is 5% of the gdp, have to consider that in the search for funding  [https://youtu.be/rWRmlumcN_s?t=968]


US cdc: unprecedented situation. actions outside of historical perspective of many states. Meaning unimagined financial mobilization. [governments will have to take ALOT of debt]

next person(investor?): encourage entrepreneurship, taxbreaks subsidies - marshall type plan to stimulate mask production in new areas and so on

Lufthansa: will be heavily affected and depended to be saved by governments to be ready for a time after the pandemic. some airlines are critical, with them the entire system falls apart. we still need transportation, we still need logistics.

next (some central banker?)[https://youtu.be/rWRmlumcN_s?t=1209]: insurers at risk of bankruptcy. our stress tests were already problematic and this is beyond anything expected. You have to step in, if not what is going to happen is you get a systemic failure of the financial industry. you have to give confidence to the market.

moderator: what is the implication of these insurance companies no longer being able to operate?

global market, if one falls everyone one across the globe fails

national security advisor US[https://youtu.be/rWRmlumcN_s?t=1285]: Some governments have fallen, others are weakening. wide spread social unrest governments asking for aid to stabilize their economies. Stabilizing countries extremely important to get the pandemic under control.

Other security unrest expected. terrorist groups and famines. Assistance necessary in areas with great potential for death as these areas will be extremely problematic in combating the pandemic. keeping control to have an infrastructure once a vaccine is available

first again(banker): search for liquidity is historically extremely problematic for countries [i think eluding to shady world bank debt scams with dictators]. Especially for areas where there is political unrest and government change. So also involve the private sector instead of only finance ministers.


UN: [https://youtu.be/rWRmlumcN_s?t=1483] healthy tension between live and lively hood. Collects money. Additional military conflicts will make the response much more costly.

Gates foundation: public health first, similar to first aid. We have to stop pandemic as we cant keep up with the cost curve. 1 million was the predictions last time and it came true. Next prediction 30mil cases. Doing everything we can to stop the growth curve

THEN IF resources are left over, have to think who are critical partners and companies. Support those companies that were prepared, that had redundancy in their supply chains. Only critical stuff, keeping the global supply chain running. In order to prevent governments from falling.


next: investment community needs to be informed and involved

world bank again: unethical behavior of tying emergency loans on a bilateral basis to longer term conditions about natural resources and the exploration rights. Make sure aid doesnt contribute to unethical practices in terms of financing.

What will stimulate the investments will not just be the transparency of the costs, but Return of Investment. Project out when we will be on top of this. worlds population is finite it will end someday. What would a sufficient investment would get us?  in terms of minimizing  cost going into this as well as accelerated uptake of the recovery. Projections are important for confidence of investors. World bank could do that.

next: victim numbers also due to other illness, when people with regular illnesses cant get a bed in an ICU. Not just focus on pandemic but also other patients.


Pharma industry:
1: accelerate outbreak shutdown
2: prop up industries that can help us bouncing back
3: how often can we respond to such outbreaks in the future, how do we prevent this from happening again and get faster reponses

US CDC again: risk of overestimating the impact the measures can have. what can we realistically accomplish? prioritization of medical since resources are running low. Important to keep the civilians trust in the system "they are living under".  High priority to track public trust.

worldbank: financial resources limited by human resources. Need global surge capacity of general wörkers you can plug into the system. surge wörforce competencies need to be defined. THis is an additional workforce.



moderators: other nodes we should service?

hotels: hotels are extremely diverse, have healthcare teams across the world. nurses doctors and practitioners. Use private sector companies that are diversified.

Moderator: other global priorities not on the list? [https://youtu.be/rWRmlumcN_s?t=2030]

chinese cdc: can not afford faulty governments. We need strong governments.

lufthansa: stabilize the resources we have. How do we keep resources moving and exchangeable. We do have the resources but they have to be moved.

national security USA: insuring infrastructure for both public and private humanitarian assistance.

next: trade organizations should also be in that. bringing contributors together. Empowering coordination.

worldbank: accountability, currently not there and with that not the confidence that the money is spend as it should

gates: small amount of resources for increasing R&D. reduce time span, reduce cost of production, create additional capacities.