Afania's Roll Distro Math

Assuming equal distribution for all rolls, there’s roughly 16.7% of chance to hit each number.

At 5/5 snake eye:
16.7% to hit 1
16.7% to hit 2
16.7% hit 5
For total of 50.1% to double up on 1st roll.

16.7% to hit 3 and snake eye
16.7% to hit 4
For total of 33.4% to get a lucky number on 1st roll

16.7% to hit 6 and use snake eye
6.7% (40% of 16.7%) chance to proc and hit No.11
10% chance not proc and hit No.7

[b]Result after 1st roll @ 5/5 SE:[/b]
50.1% double up (No.1, 2, 5)
33.4% land on lucky number
6.7% hit No.11
10% hit No.7

If you go 3/5 snake eye then you get:
16.7% to hit 6 and use snake eye
3.3% to proc and hit No.11
13.4% not proc and hit No.7

[b]Result after 1st roll @ 3/5 SE:[/b]
50.1% double up (No.1, 2, 5)
33.4 land on lucky number
3.3% hit No.11
13.4% hit No.7

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After 1st roll, you have 16.7% of chance to hit No.1. If you double up on 1, the possible attainable numbers are 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.

16.7% to hit 3 and snake eye
16.7% to hit 4
33.4% to land on lucky number = 5.6% of chance to get a lucky number after rolling a 1 on 1st roll.

33.4% to hit 2 or 5 = 5.6% of chance to roll a 1 then double up

16.7% to hit 6 then snake eye, 6.7% proc and hit 11, 10% not proc and hit 7 = 1.1% to roll a 1 then 6 then SE to 11, 1.7% to roll a 1 then 6 then SE to 7.

16.7% to hit 7 and stop = 2.8% to hit 1 then 7

[b]Result after 2nd roll @ 5/5 SE:[/b]
Lucky number: 33.4% + 5.6% = 39%
No.11: 6.7% + 1.1% = 7.8%
No.7: 10%+1.7% + 2.8%= 14.5%

If you go 3/5 SE then you get:
16.7% to hit 6 then snake eye, 3.3% proc and hit 11, 13.4% not proc and hit 7 = 0.6% to roll a 1 then 6 then SE to 11, 2.2% to roll a 1 then 6 then SE to 7.

[b]Result after 2nd roll @ 3/5 SE:[/b]
Lucky number: 33.4% + 5.6% = 39%
No.11: 3.3% + 0.6%= 3.9%
No.7: 13.4% + 2.2% + 2.8%= 18.4%
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19.5% of chance to hit No.2 either by landing No.2 on 1st roll (16.7%) or roll a No.1 then double up and get 1 (16.7% of 16.7% = 2.8% of chance)
16.7% + 2.8%=19.5%

If you double up on 2 then you get a chance to land on 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.

33.4% of chance to land on lucky number by landing on 3 then snake eye or land on 4 = 6.5% of chance to land on 2 then lucky

16.7% of chance to hit 5 = 3.3% more chance to hit 5

33.4% of chance to land on 6 or 8 then snake eye. 13.4% to proc on 11, 20% no proc = +2.6% to hit 11, + 2% to hit 7, + 2% to hit 9

16.7% to stop at 7= 3.3% chance to hit 2 then 7

[b]Result @ 5/5 SE:[/b]

Lucky number: 39% + 6.5% = 45.5%
No.11: 7.8% + 2.6% = 10.4%
No.7: 14.5% + 2% + 3.3% = 19.8%
No.9: 2%

If you go 3/5 SE you got:
33.4% of chance to land on 6 or 8 then snake eye. 6.7% to proc on 11, 26.7% no proc = +1.3% to hit 11, + 2.6% to hit 7, + 2.6% to hit 9

[b]Result @ 3/5 SE:[/b]
Lucky number: 39% + 6.5% = 45.5%
No.11: 3.9% + 1.3% = 5.2%
No.7: 18.4% + 2.6% + 3.3% = 24.3%
No.9: 2.6%

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22.8% of chance to hit No.5 either by hitting No.5 on 1st try (16.7%) or hit a 1 then double up to 5 (2.8%) or hit a 2 then double up to 5 (3.3%)
16.7% + 2.8% + 3.3% = 22.8%

The possible number obtainable after double up from 5 are:  6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11,
50.1% of chance to hit 6, 8, 9 and snake eye = 20% of chance to proc and get 11. 10% chance of no proc and get No.7, 10% chance to get No.9, 10% chance to get No.10.
22.8% x 20%=+4.6% for No.11
22.8% x 10%= + 2.3% for 7, 9 and 10.
16.7% of chance to stop at 7 = +3.8% for 7
16.7% for 10 then snake eye to 11= + 3.8% for 11
16.7% for 11 = + 3.8% for 11

@ 3/5 SE:
50.1% of chance to hit 6, 8, 9 and snake eye = 10% of chance to proc and get 11. 13.4% chance of no proc and get No.7, 13.4% chance to get No.9, 13.4% chance to get No.10.
22.8% x 10% = + 2.3% for No.11
22.8% x 13.4% = + 3.1% for 7, 9 and 10