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winniedemon

Predictor Math

winniedemon
Dec 6th, 2021 (edited)
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  1. The predictor gets 5 "total scores" for each racer. The first one is their Current Score. For the remaining 4, the predictor will add scores to get everyone up to 8 races (it will only fill in as many races as are actually remaining in the season, though). These scores are:
  2.  
  3. 1) Theoretical Max - all remaining races are 1100
  4. 2) Peak Performance - all remaining races are equal to their current top score
  5. 3) Good Performance - an average of Peak Performance and Average Performance
  6. 4) Average Performance - remaining races are equal to their "middle" score, as follows:
  7.  
  8. 7 races remaining (1 completed race)
  9. Average Performance = 4 * Best
  10.  
  11. 6 races remaining (2 completed races)
  12. Average Performance = 4 * Best
  13. (There are a lot of people with 1 real score and 1 forfeit, so this seemed more accurate, on average, than 3 * Best + 1 * 2nd Best)
  14.  
  15. 5 races remaining (3 completed races)
  16. Average Performance = 4 * 2nd Best
  17.  
  18. 4 races remaining (4 completed races)
  19. Average Performance = 2 * 2nd best + 2 * 3rd best
  20. 2021-12-10 Revised for Qual #8+ Average Performance = 3 * 2nd best + 3rd best
  21.  
  22. 3 races remaining (5 completed races)
  23. Average Performance = 2nd best + 2 * 3rd best + 4th best
  24. 2021-12-10 Revised for Qual #8+ Average Performance = 2nd best + 3 * 3rd best
  25.  
  26. 2 races remaining (6 completed races)
  27. Average Performance = 2nd best + 2 * 3rd best + 4th best
  28.  
  29. 1 races remaining (7 completed races)
  30. Average Performance = 2nd best + 3rd best + 2 * 4th best
  31.  
  32. 0 races remaining (8 completed races)
  33. Average Performance = 2nd best + 3rd best + 4th best + 5th best
  34. (This is just their Current Score)
  35.  
  36.  
  37. The predictor sorts by the Average Performance score in order to get the projected top 64.
  38.  
  39.  
  40. The predictor also grades how "safe" current top 64 members are. It's calculated for everyone in the top 64, but it's meant to be for people who have completed their 8 races and want to know how likely it is that they get bubbled out of the top 64
  41.  
  42. Lock for top 64: Current Score is in the top 64 of all Theoretical Max scores
  43. Basically guaranteed: Current Score is in the top 64 of all Peak Performance scores
  44. Very likely: Current Score is in the top 64 of all Good Performance scores
  45. Likely: Current Score is in the top 64 of all Average Performance scores
  46.  
  47. It's definitely conservative, since there's no way that *everyone* performs at their Good or Peak Performance level.
  48.  
  49.  
  50. For people outside of the top 64 (projected), it also does the reverse:
  51.  
  52. If Good: Good Performance score is in the top 64 of all Average Performance scores
  53. If Peak: Peak Performance score is in the top 64 of all Average Performance scores
  54. Mathematically Possible: Theoretical Max score is in the top 64 of all Current Scores
  55.  
  56.  
  57. The predictor also does all of the same evaluations for the top 128.
  58.  
  59.  
  60. The predictor was a thing I developed during S4 because we were planning on doing a podcast episode mid-way through quals, and I wanted to try to come up with some names of people that weren't currently in the top 32, but had a decent chance of making it. Then we ended up not doing that episode ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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