10/31-11/1/23 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

10/31-11/1/23 Update, day 615-616 of Russian invasion.


Belarus:

The situation in Belarus remains unchanged, and the UA intel services continue to state there is no threat of an attack despite RU propaganda occasionally implying so.


Kyiv/ West Ukraine:

UA has formed a new agency responsible for military purchases, to ensure a lack of interruption in supplies while reducing corruption. The State Rear Operator will first be responsible for the supply of food to the armed forces, and is announcing 3 month contracts which will allow for more frequent check-up and supply organization. This comes after a year-long fallout from apparent profiteering over the purchase of food supplies for the ZSU.

The SRO potentially may expand into other areas of military procurement in the future should they be successful in implementing change within the food procurement process.

Political fallout from the TIME article continues to trickle out of Kyiv, as the UA National Security Council secretary claims inaccuracies in the publication, and "this is the subjective point of view of a particular journalist".

The UA CIC General Zaluzhny wrote a column for The Economist, where he indicated the failures, lessons learned, and requirements for the war going forward. He specifically drew attention to the need for air power, electronic warfare, counter battery technology, large scale breaching + demining equipment (such as MICLIC and Meteorit), and increases in UA reserve forces. He specifically draws reference to the difficulties involved in the current positional warfare, and the dangers of allowing RU to rebuild its capabilities.

The UA MoH spoke about psychological preparations for the winter in the event of blackouts, with specific resources for people with depression and seasonal depression.

The UA Minister of Foreign Affairs drew reference to the need for more air defenses, as the cost for a damaged transformer can be 5x that of a missile interceptor from a Patriot system. There is a fundraiser featuring Timothy Snyder currently working to install a network of 2500 air-detection sensors, to aid in targeting the routes of missiles and drones.

The UA government is taking steps to replace the all-recently-fired recruitment officers with soldiers who have combat experience, and have passed anti-corruption measures. There are also steps being taken to further digitize the system and share it with various regional centers.

A Hepatitis A epidemic has been declared for the region of Vinnitsya, as decontamination of public transit and school shutdowns are underway to mitigate its spread. Other regions are taking proactive steps in preparation for larger spread, as the immunization % is lower then it should be.



Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv city:

UA air defense forces in the north shot down an RU Kh-101 cruise missile with a Stinger MANPAD, equipped with a thermal imager.

UA investigators have identified the RU unit responsible for the missile strike on a crowded theater in Chernihiv in August.

RU missile strikes on Poltava, cutting off 3 settlements and 500 customers from power.


Kupyansk/Kreminna/Svatove

RU attempted another failed offensive towards Kupyansk across the open terrain from the NE, leading to considerable losses. The previous collection of RU artillery systems here, then killed by effective counter battery fire, has limited RU supporting fires on this axis. The open terrain and UA prepared positions don't help much either.

The UN presented an official report blaming the Grozny village bombing, which killed 59 people, on a russian ballistic missile strike.

RU did not conduct offensive actions towards Lyman in the last 48 hours.



Kramatorsk:

Due to increased shelling, there is an ongoing successful evacuation of families with children in the villages along the Luhansk/Kharkiv border, specifically around the Izyum area.

RU continues to reinforce its forces in the Bakhmut area, and especially around the UA offensive towards Opytne and Klischiivka.


Avdiivka:

Russian forces have continued to make small advances around NW and SW Avdiivka, at great cost. Currently, the NW contact line is at the main highway leading into the town, and it appears the bulk of RU forces are concentrated here.

UA forces claim to have regained control over the industrial mound north of town, but the situation remains unclear. Abandoned remnants of a UA armored push using Leopard tanks have been seen along the main road here, and RU forces appear to have pushed to secure the main road, as well as farmlands further to the N.

To the SW, RU forces have not made any progress in their attempts from Vodyane north.

UA defense officials claim that RU has lost ~7000 soldiers in the Avdiivka offensive in the last 20 days since the offensive began.

Should RU forces continue to make progress from the north, they will likely attempt to secure control over the western road leading into Avdiivka- the main supply route. The massive losses of RU forces over the last weeks, due in large part to an appropriate amount of UA artillery ammo, will complicate RU plans, equipment, and morale.

UA appears to have launched an assault towards Donetsk city/SW of the Avdiivka battle near Krasnohorivka, although the open terrain and limited footage leaves the situation currently unclear.

UA officers stated that the main support keeping the RU pincher at bay is long range artillery, primarily concentrated further W near the Karlivka Reservoir.


Donetsk/Luhansk occupied regions:

Over 400,000 residents of Donetsk oblast have been "processed" via filtration camps since the invasion began, where they are frequently subjected to torture as their loyalty to the occupation government is assessed. RU raids and searches for resistance fighters continue unabated.

RU continues to hand out free TV equipment in the occupied zones that only allows for watching RU federation channels, as they work to increase propaganda among the citizens.

A Russian fuel train and potentially ammo shipment was destroyed in Donetsk city.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

Ua forces continue to launch strikes on RU equipment near Novodonetske and Staromlynivka, in the general Vuhledar area of Western Zaporizhia/Donetsk.

RU forces also continue to launch drone strikes from Enerhodar and the area of the Zaporizhia NPP, across the river into Nikopol.

RU continues to carry out conscription of local residents in the villages of Zaporizhia, in hand with the passportization of the populace.

RU is forming additional ammo depots and storage sites in Mariupol, using hangars, granaries, and garages. This comes with an increase in RU foot patrols and suppression measures.


Kherson:

RU continues to shell into Kherson oblast, causing power outages and casualties.

UA forces appear to be fighting in Krynky, just across the river from Ivanivka, as RU forces complain about a lack of supplies. RU forces have continued massive usage of glide bombs, or KAB, which are 250, 500, and 1500kg bombs outfitted with glide kits to extend their range. The indiscriminate usage of these, approximately 30 a day in Kherson oblast alone, has caused considerable damage and casualties' due to their large blast radius.

UA forces continue to visibly move across the Dnipro river wetlands.

UA forces managed to conduct a deep strike on an RU Krashukha-4 electronic warfare system, a valuable piece of technology. The drone footage of the strike raises questions about the systems vulnerabilities.

The RU administration in Kherson is offering farmers leases on stolen UA equipment.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

Overnight UA shot down 2 Kh-59 missiles near Odesa.

RU is apparently strengthening their air defense systems in Crimea, from areas of E Russia. However, the UA intel services point to recent strikes there as evidence such platforms remain vulnerable. The goal is to prevent Crimea from being used as a logisitics hub for RU forces.

Per the UK, RU attacks on UA ports and grain infrastructure destroyed over 280k tons of grain last month, which can feed a million people for a year.

The UA southern defensive forces claim that RU is deploying at least 100 new sea mines per month in the western Black Sea, in attempts to make transportation impossible.

5 months after the Kahkovka dam collapse, toxic substances and metals continue to be found in high quantities in the black sea. With bioavailability and progressive toxic accumulation up the food chain, larger animals like fish or dolphins have toxin levels hundreds of times higher then permissible.

There was an apparent UA missile attack in crimea, as RU appeared to use smoke projectors to hide the Kerch bridge.


Russia:

RU is forming new Rosgvardia units (RU Natl Guard) to carry out suppression activities in the occupied territories. The current tent city, located near Vorozneh, is designed to accomodate 10,000 people and is expected to begin operation on November 3rd.

Per South Korean intelligence, NK sent more then 1 million artillery shells to Russia since august, or approximately 1 months worth of total shelling. DPRK factories are currently running at full capacity, as residents are mobilized to assist. The likely incentive is financial payments to the DPRK government.

Regarding the ongoing rumors of Putins demise, UA intel services state it is an internal propaganda campaign designed to sniff out


General:

UA forces conducted 18 air strikes, and RU forces conducted 63 air strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

680x soldiers (Total 301,490 )
30x APC
12x Tank
1x Air defense
25x Artillery (2xMLRS)
23x vehicles
28x UAV


In October, ZSU destroyed 22,920 Russian soldiers and 3,494 units of weapons and equipment of the Russian Armed Forces.

In terms of equipment, the Russians lost:
521 tanks
843 APC
773 artillery systems
26 air defense installations
741 vehicles,
86 pieces of special equipment
5 planes
8 helicopters
425 UAV
18 missiles

Overseas:

Nova Poshta, the UA mail service, sponsored a global marathon with 65 countries to for charity to support the ZSU and wounded soldiers.

The Biden administrations current provision for UA aid in the latest combined package stands at 61.3 billion USD. The UA government claims there is currently enough votes to pass the legislation as it stands, but bemoans America's partisan politics and certain political opportunism.

US Secretary Blinken stated that currently Russia has enough strength to have tactical successes in the future, that effective withdrawals can be a good thing, and nobody should call avdiivka a fortress or be allergic to a defensive mindset.

The EU Commission will allocate 335 million euros for UA reconstruction and anti-corruption.

Switzerland has extended the temporary protection status, including financial support measures, for UA refugees until March of 2025.

The USA filed charges on 4 individuals who were smuggling large quantity of dual-use electronics to russia, for weapons provisioning.