Nuzyra

#
# An R script to visualize the sales trajectory of Paratek's Nuzyra
#
# (c) 2019 Germain Garand <germain.garand@laposte.net>
#
# This is for information purposes only. Any calculation performed herein could be
# wrong and/or misrepresent reality. Use at your own risk.
#
# License: Creative Commons BY-NC 2.0

Sys.setlocale("LC_TIME", "C")

a <- seq(as.Date("2019/09/13"),as.Date("2020/04/10"), "week")
m <- seq(as.Date("2019/06/01"),as.Date("2020/01/01"), "month")

a <- as.Date(a, "%Y/%m/%d")

# Date are for the actual scripts date,
# not the report date, that's a week after.
# e.g. report for 2020/01/03 below was published 2020/01/10
b <- c(
     13,18,22, # end of Q3
     26,24,24,33,22,25,26,31,19,27,37,29,
     25, #### no report for 2019/12/27
     23, # 2020/1/3
     32,29,41,40,
     43, # 2020/2/7
     44,32,43,
     47, # 2020/3/6
     41,43,53,
     43, # 2020/4/3
     30
)

## Monthly TRX - Approx. $ per script: 7500
##
## Ju    29
##
## Jul   53
## Aug   77
## Sep   77
##
## Oct  113
## Nov  108
## Dec  118
##
## Jan  158
## Feb  168
## Mar  205

## Institutional data ($)
## Ju     248.41k
##
## Jul    448.34k
## Aug    390.38k
## Sep    833.84k
##
## Oct    805.32k
## Nov    1.20M
## Dec    883.56k
##
## Jan    853.73k
## Feb
## Mar

inst <- c(248410, 448340, 390380, 833840, 805320, 1200000, 883560, 853730)

e <- data.frame(a,b)
names(e) <- c("Week", "Scripts")

f <- data.frame(m,inst)
names(f) <- c("Month", "Dollars")

t = length(a)-1
cwgr = ( ((b[t]+b[t+1])/2) / b[1] )^(1/t)-1

t_m = length(m)-1
cmgr_i = ( ((inst[t_m]+inst[t_m+1])/2) / inst[1] )^(1/t_m)-1

cqgr = (cwgr+1)^13 -1
cqgr_i = (cmgr_i+1)^3 -1

q419 <- head(tail(b,-3),13)
q120 <- head(tail(b,-16),13)
q220 <- head(tail(b,-29),13)

message("Retail Scripts Q4/19: ",  sum(q419), "  Q1/20: ", sum(q120), "  Q2/20: ", sum(q220))
message("Weekly Mean    Q4/19: ",  round(mean(q419),1), " Q1/20: ", round(mean(q120),1), " Q2/20: ", round(mean(q220),1))
message("QoQ Weekly Mean Growth: Q4-Q1: ", round((((mean(q120)-mean(q419)))/mean(q419))*100, 1), "% Q1-Q2: ",
                                           round((((mean(q220)-mean(q120)))/mean(q120))*100, 1), "%")

png("nuzyra_retail.png",width=480,height=480)
plot(Scripts ~ Week, e, type = 'l', col='blue',main="Nuzyra Weekly Retail Scripts", sub=paste0("Compounded Weekly Growth Rate: ", round(cwgr*100, 1), "%"), col.sub='red')
dev.off()

png("nuzyra_inst.png",width=480,height=480)
plot(Dollars ~ Month, f, type = 'l', col='blue',main="Nuzyra Institutional", sub=paste0("Compounded Monthly Growth Rate: ", round(cmgr_i*100, 1), "%"), col.sub='red')