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- 7/18/24-7/26/24 Update, day 875-884 of Russian invasion.
- Belarus/Western Border:
- Belarus sentenced a German volunteer fighter who served alongside belarusian volunteers in Ukraine, to death. Its unclear how he was arrested by Belarusian government officials, and the German government is reportedly already in contact.
- Belarus will reportedly introduce a visa-free 30 day regime for a number of EU countries, in an attempt to thaw relations. This will be in place until the end of 2024.
- Poland will reportedly commit to allowing "Ukrainian Legion" volunteer troops on its territory for basic training provided by the Polish military, although it will have no hand in the formation or recruitment to said units.
- Poland has reportedly found no evidence to suggest that polish produced components are used to construct Shahed drones..
- Firebrand UA Nationalist politician Iryna Farion was assassinated by an unknown gunman in Lviv. The suspected motive is political, as Iryna had previously attracted controversy by demeaning russian-speaking Ukrainians in the armed forces, and had been fired from her teaching position following student protests she called for repression of. An 18 year old man from Dnipro was arrested and claims innocence, but it appears he rented some 3 apartments in Lviv prior to the assassination. Its believed he was a hired hitman.
- Kyiv/Central Ukraine:
- On July 18, UA intercepted 16/16 shaheds and 2/3 cruise missiles.
- On July 20, UA intercepted 13/17 drones and 0/4 missiles.
- On July 23, UA intercepted 7/8 Shaheds and 1/1 cruise missile.
- On July 24, UA intercepted 17/23 Shaheds at 0/2 missiles. The drones targeted energy facilities in Zhytomyr and Chernihiv.
- Ukraine increased its defense spending by $12.1 Billion USD this year. Over half of the funding will go to military salaries and death benefits.
- The Rada has proposed increasing the taxable funds going to military finances, from 1.5% to 5% for private businesses, and generally higher across the board for other tax bases.
- UA allocated some $31.5 million USD to the Ministry of health for restoration of medical facilities, and $385 million USD to children's education and restoration of infrastructure. This comes from the EU Development bank loan.
- Following a recent poll, some 94% of UA citizens have a negative attitude towards the Russian Federation, and 80% - towards Russians themselves. Some 55% of polled civilians reject any territorial concessions to RU in exchange for a ceasefire.
- Reportedly the first 1.4 billion Euros of frozen RU asset interest will be provided to UA in the next week. They will be prioritized for ammunition and anti-air defense.
- Reportedly following a re-examination of UA conscripts deemed "limited fitness", only 10% were deemed unfit for military service. Approximately 50% of the remainder were deemed fit for military service, and the other 50% for rear units and non-combat units.
- Another UA Nuclear reactor has come back online earlier then expected following scheduled repairs, which should alleviate some energy needs. Blackout schedules have lessened during the day across UA, aided by cooler temps and less air conditioning.
- Zelensky signed into law abolishing import taxes and duties on generators and large power stations, as well demining equipment.
- Its expected to take at least 3 years to repair damage to the Dnipro hydroelectric power plant, following RU strikes in late May. Debris from that attack was only cleared on July 14th. UA's hydroelectric power grid has lost almost 45% of its energy generation capability due to RU attacks and destruction of the Kahkovka dam.
- Northeast Ukraine/Kharkiv city:
- RU has shifted to a defensive posture near Lipetsk, with 9 clashes taking place. RU has intensified its assaults in the Vovchansk area following losses, using some 50 glide bombs a day.
- There continues to be an apparent RU hardpoint of troops semi-encircled in an industrial district of Vovchansk, as UA targets the buildings yet RU actively strikes buildings around it.
- RU claims to have intercepted some 26 UA drones in the Rostov region on the 20th.
- RU missiles targeted Kharkiv City industrial areas over the last days. Among damaged buildings was the Swiss Demining organization FSD, who had their building partially collapsed and their vehicles damaged.
- RU reportedly carried out a double tap strike in Kharkiv city with an Iskander cluster munition, targeting emergency workers. This is the first time cluster munitions have been used in the city since late 2022.
- Kharkiv is reportedly working to initiate a new air alert system in the next two months.
- RU struck railway infrastructure on the Kharkiv-Kyiv rail line route.
- RU attacked energy infrastructure in Poltava, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions on July 20
- Kupyansk/Lyman:
- RU launched 10 attacks towards Kupyansk, and 13 towards Lyman.
- RU reportedly hit Lyman with a 250kg glide bomb, hitting a gas station.
- RU has increased its volume of fire towards Kupyansk, including glide bombs and MLRS fire, as it intensifies its efforts here from the NE. RU FPV drones have increasingly been hunting closer to Kupyansk, striking civilian targets of opportunity.
- RU advanced SE of Kramatorsk near Pischane, continuing efforts to push along the river tributary to the Oskil and cut the Kupyansk region in half. RU troops are currently some 8 km from the Oskil here.
- RU forces towards Lyman have lost territory near Terny and Yampolivka, as UA troops push them away from the Zherebets river valley and captured a T-80 BVM tank.
- Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:
- UA repelled 6 assaults towards Siversk over the last day. This area is assessed as a lower priority, where RU is seeking to find opportunities to later exploit, rather then a major focus towards Slovyansk.
- UA troops appear to have contested new territory along the Siversky donets river near Siversk, near where RU had the disastrous bridging attempt in 2022.
- UA recaptured territory NW of Soledar, while RU advanced NE of Soledar near Rozdolivka.
- RU is focusing heavily on the area around Chasiv Yar, launching some 11 assaults over the last day. RU continues efforts to push around to the NE of Siversk, heavily striking the high rise residential structures across the river with incendiary MLRS.
- RU advanced NW of Bohdanivka.
- UA restored the Raihorodok dam on the Siversky Donets river, NE of Slovyansk. This was a joint projected with the International Committee of the Red Cross.
- Toretsk/Kostyantynivka:
- RU has advanced S and E of Toretsk, in Niu York and Zalizne suburbs.
- UA troops with Bradley IFVs have been seen clearing out the high rises in SW Niu York which had been captured by RU last week, as RU appears to be attempting to expand the width of the front further to the SW rather then successfully break on through the suburb itself.
- RU forces have been actively assaulting in Zalizne, and significant fire damage to residential districts is observed as pitched close range fighting continues on this front.
- Avdiivka/Pokrovsk:
- RU continues to focus the bulk of its activity towards Pokrovsk, launching 43 assaults in the last day.
- RU successfully advanced in the Prohres direction, with two UA battalions executing a fighting withdrawal subsequent to threats of encirclement. The soldiers blame commanders for poorly communicating and supplying them, and it appears two US Abrams tanks were abandoned in contested territory during the withdrawal. One drove into a trench and was hit by drones, and the other was abandoned and struck by RU drones on a highway still controlled by UA.
- RU advanced to control previously contested territory in Novoselivka Persha.
- UA has launched an investigation into the 59th Brigade operating in this region, following UA soldiers complaints of poor command.
- Donetsk city/Occupied regions:
- RU launched 17 assaults around Krasnohorivka, with RU securing control of the NE section of the town. Fierce fighting in Krasnohorivka in recent days with potential that UA will be forced to withdraw from the city.
- RU contested new territory SW of Marinka near Pobjeda.
- RU forces supported with heavy thermobaric shelling have contested territory W of Novomykhailivka, launching a large and apparently unsuccessful assault. Its noted that RU has been increasingly moving old tanks like T-55 and T-62 towards the frontline in the last two months, which have yet to be seen utilized en masse.
- RU contested additional territory near Vodyane following a massive mechanized assault that took heavy losses during its movement to the front. This assault constituted some 11 tanks, 45 APCs, 12 motorcycles and 200+ soldiers.
- UA has increasingly targeted RU air defense platforms around Donetsk city with deep strikes.
- UA shot down two RU SU-25 in recent days near Pokrovsk.
- Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:
- Yesterday RU launched 441 strikes on 9 settlements in Zaporizhzhia, 235 times with drones and 185 times with artillery.
- RU continues efforts to push around Robotyne, attacking 3 times along the NE fields.
- Following RU reserve manpower issues, RU reinforcement for ongoing assaults near Vuhledar have functionally stopped, as reserves have been transferred to the Chasiv Yar AO.
- UA forces withdrew from Uzrozhane due to defensive positions and the village being functionally obliterated by RU shelling and airstrikes.
- Kherson:
- RU attacked Mykolaiv with a missile on July 19th, killing 3 and wounding 14 people. The rocket impacted a playground.
- RU launched 4 assaults on UA positions on the Dnipro river islands. UA drone strikes across the river have apparently reduced, as RU MLRS fire continues sporadically along the river islands.
- Ukraine's National Resistance Center has reported that the Russians have banned local residents from entering a 15-kilometre zone along the Dnipro River in the temporarily occupied territories of Kherson Oblast. RU is requiring a "special permit" for free movement in this region. It comes into effect on August 1st along the Kahkovka region, and will extend to the entire Dnipro river bank on September 1st as RU is likely to deport local residents.
- Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:
- RU Shaheds attacked Izmail in Odesa, damaging port infrastructure and an apartment building. At least one drone crossed over the river and exploded in Romania, who scrambled jets. There are competing reports that Romania AD intercepted the drone, with Romanian PM Marcel Ciolacu stating that Romania is not currently permitted to fire on UA territory in order to intercept RU drones. NATO representatives stated there are no signs of a deliberate attack on NATO territory by RU.
- SBU drones attacked the RU coast guard base on lake Donuzlav in Crimea on July 18th, damaging a number of warehouses and base infrastructure. UA drones attacked Saki air base with long range missiles overnight.
- There is a single RU missile carrier ship in the Black sea, with 8 Kalibrs.
- Turkish rescue workers in Istanbul province found a UA jet ski with explosives, apparently converted into a USV with a camera terminal and satellite internet terminal aboard.
- RU reportedly intercepted 33 drones over Crimea and 10 USVs on July 18th.
- Approximately 80% of RU nationals scheduled have cancelled their trips to Crimea this summer, primarily due to UA strikes and the concerns about RU air defense failures.
- Russia:
- There was a car bombing assassination attempt on an RU deputy commander of a satellite communication unit in Moscow, amputating both his legs.
- Reportedly RU is utilizing low cost recon drones made of plywood and foam, using UA sim cards and cameras at a height of 1km AGL. They are similar to shaheds in being pusher motor drones, with the mission set being searching for UA AD locations.
- UA drones hit an RU oil refinery in Tuapse along the Black sea coat
- North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met with a Russian military delegation in DPRK.
- Per South Korean military officials, DPRK has sent containers to Russia capable of containing up to 5.2 million artillery rounds thus far.
- Former Deputy MoD of the Russian Federation Dmytro Bulgakov was detained in Moscow on corruption allegations. He served from 2008-2022.
- Allegedly RU cancelled the main section of its Navy Day celebrations in St Petersburg at the Kronstatd naval base, due to "security reasons".
- The Russian State Duma adopted a bill on July 24 that allows for the transfer of confiscated civilian weapons and ammunition to Rosgvardia, the Ministry of Defense (MoD), or other state paramilitary organizations operating in Ukraine.
- RU is reportedly having ongoing issues with supplying troops adequate amounts of water, with RU pilots apparently having to spend their personal time finding water in excess of 1L per day issued to them.
- RU reportedly has some 515,000 soldiers deployed inside Ukraine, with goals to expand that number to almost 700,000 soldiers by end of year (both in and supporting the war)
- General:
- Over the last day UA forces conducted 22 airstrikes and RU forces conducted 71 air strikes (including drones), and 127 MLRS strikes.
- Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:
- 950x soldiers (Total 572,300 day avg 1,097 last 7 days)
- 11x APC
- 7x Tank
- 36x Artillery (0xMLRS)
- 0x Air Defense
- 0x Aircraft
- 56x vehicles
- 73x UAV
- estimated cost: $61.1 million USD
- total estimated cost- $99.6 Million/day per last 30 days, $3.0 Billion USD over last 30 days.
- Losses per Volya 7/18-7/124/24
- RU- 3,280 KIA/MIA/POW/Deserted
- 7,400 WIA/Hospitalized with illness
- UA- 759 KIA/MIA/POW/Deserted (+ 381 new reports from 06/19-07/17)
- 2,793 WIA/Hospitalized with illness
- Overall- RU 328,960 losses, 754,083 non-fatal casualties (including some repeat injured)
- UA 130,652 losses, 337,356 non-fatal casualties (including repeat injured)
- Per Volya, UA and RU casualties have diminished due to a reduction in combat actions along the south. This is expected to rise as RU troops attempt to make decisive gains in the Chasiv Yar/Pokrovske before the muddy season begins this fall, over the next several weeks.
- Overseas:
- Slovakia and Hungary have reacted negatively to UA's decision to suspend operations of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which carries RU oil across UA to the EU. Specifically, UA has halted the Lukoil (RU company) pumps operation. Governments have noted that the temporary exception to allow for operation of this pipeline to Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia is due to expire at the end of the year, and that UA has not fully blocked other RU companies such as Rosneft and Tatneft from pumping oil through it.
- Reportedly another German Patriot air defense system has arrived in Ukraine this week.
- The UK and UA settled an agreement allowing for a 15 year loan up to $19.4 billion USD for supply and production/repair of air defense systems and armored vehicles along with ammo.
- Lithuanian Parliament voted to withdraw from the International convention on cluster munitions, due to the current geopolitical situation and use of such weaponry in Ukraine. If passed, this would allow Lithuania to produce, use, transfer, or store cluster munitions.
- On Monday, July 22, the European Union extended the sanctions against Russia for aggression against Ukraine for another six months - until the end of January 2025.
- As part of the Czech initiative, 100,000 units of ammunition will be delivered to Ukraine in July and August.
- The US Department of Defense found additional errors in its calculations regarding ammunition, missiles and other equipment sent to Ukraine , worth $2 billion, according to a US government report published on Thursday, July 25. As a result, $2 billion worth of weapons may be sent to Ukraine .
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