Here are the key citations with their full URLs included:
Key Citations for PC/Internet Historical Productivity Data
Pre-1973 Productivity Data: Productivity growth averaged 2.94 percent per annum before mid-1973, but only 1.41 percent after that. The technology-based part of productivity growth slowed dramatically, from about 1.9 percent between 1948 and 1973, to only 0.2 percent from 1973 to 1997.
The Internet and the New Economy
"The Internet and the New Economy" - https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-internet-and-the-new-economy/
The Productivity Paradox (1970s-1980s): While the computing capacity of the U.S. increased a hundredfold in the 1970s and 1980s, labor productivity growth slowed from over a 3% in the 1960s to roughly 1% in the 1980s, a phenomenon termed the "productivity paradox" or "Solow paradox."
Productivity paradox - Wikipedia
"Productivity paradox" - Wikipedia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox
Sectoral Impact of Computing: Before 1973, labor productivity in manufacturing sectors that invested heavily in computers grew only 2.8 percent per year, compared with 3.1 percent for those that did not. After computer adoption accelerated in the 1970s and 1980s, productivity growth jumped to 5.7 percent per year for 1990-1996 in the computer-using sectors.
Computers Can Accelerate Productivity Growth
"Computers Can Accelerate Productivity Growth" - https://issues.org/mcguck/
The Mid-1990s Productivity Resurgence: The dramatic pickup in productivity since 1995 is partly attributed to heavy investment in computer and telecommunications technology in the 1990s, accounting for as much as half of all plant and equipment investment in recent years.
The Economy and the Internet: What Lies Ahead?
"The Economy and the Internet: What Lies Ahead?" - https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-economy-and-the-internet-what-lies-ahead/
J-Curve Pattern of Technology Adoption: The productivity J-curve describes the historical pattern of initially slow productivity growth after a breakthrough technology is introduced, followed years later by a sharp takeoff. Technology investments must be combined with larger investments in new business processes and skills before productivity ultimately boosts.
The coming productivity boom | MIT Technology Review
"The coming productivity boom" - MIT Technology Review - https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06/10/1026008/the-coming-productivity-boom/
Labor Market Impact: Computers have contributed to a polarization of the labor market, with individuals forced to flock to either high-skill or low-skill ends of the spectrum, hollowing out many middle-class jobs and driving rising wage inequality.
Productivity, Inequality and the 'Profound Impact' of the Personal Computer
"Productivity, Inequality and the 'Profound Impact' of the Personal Computer" - https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-08-12/productivity-inequality-and-the-profound-impact-of-the-personal-computer
Internet's Impact on Productivity: The Internet has significantly influenced US labor productivity since its inception, evolving from a network of connected computers into a commercial medium that transformed how information is accessed and shared.
Internet and US labor productivity | EBSCO Research Starters
"Internet and US labor productivity" - EBSCO Research Starters - https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/economics/internet-and-us-labor-productivity
Citations for LLM Productivity Projections
The J-Curve Technology Adoption Pattern: Technology alone is rarely enough to create significant benefits. Instead, technology investments must be combined with even larger investments in new business processes, skills, and other types of intangible capital before breakthroughs ultimately boost productivity.
The coming productivity boom | MIT Technology Review
"The coming productivity boom" - MIT Technology Review - https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06/10/1026008/the-coming-productivity-boom/
Sectoral Impact Variation: Computer-related productivity gains weren't uniform across sectors, with manufacturing showing clearer gains than services. This pattern suggests LLMs might also show sectoral variations in productivity impact.
Computers Can Accelerate Productivity Growth
"Computers Can Accelerate Productivity Growth" - https://issues.org/mcguck/