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Honestly, I think that with all the chances to hit that he'll get between Mew/Endless Bit, Sage will probably get something through.  The question then becomes how lethal is that for the Commander.  And that depends largely on which Personae he's using.

Raquel seems pretty cleanly out.  She can only hit PDef, and the lowest Sage goes there is a B+, while his MDef hits a low of D in Waddle Dee.  Not to mention, she's also slow, expensive, and lacks the tricks that the other forms have.  Raftina seems like a very similar easy choice to not use.  Sage's two most likely starting choices both have Dark attacks.  This means that her weakness is very likely to see play, and in the case of the Black Rabite, that weakness will be lethal.  That's a good 50% for his life gone, at least.

So, CK will be relying on Lyn.  So, let's take a look at how this might play out if Sage decides to blitz.  CK's likely going to have the Ice Queen's Favour out, as well as the Gleaming Armour, so added speed and defenses.  Sage needs to go for the status blitz as a straight up slugfest means he needs to make up a A vs. D HP deficiency when he will be slower, and packs less punch to boot.  This means Black Rabite out of the gate in hopes of catching Raftina.  If Raftina doesn't come out, then he uses Endless Bite and switches to Mew.  At this point, he's faced with bad options.  Kitty doesn't work if he's slower than his opponent, Aeroblast, while it hits a weaker defense is also resisted.  That leaves Sludge Bomb and Psychic, and he needs the extra damage and the Poison status more than the lowered stats.

So, over the course of three turns, that's three shots of 10% MHP damage for 30% total, combined with two shots of 15% Dark damage going from a B+ vs. B+, though weakened by the A HP to be closer to 21% damage total.  That's around 51% damage, with about another 11% on the way.  It's also two 25% chances of poison, which is a nice fixed 20% MHP drain.  So, if he lands Poison early, he might just be able to kill around turn 4/5.

Other status that might kick in are Seal, which doesn't really effect Lyn, and Tired, which doesn't really affect Lyn, and Slow, which means that her speed will only be 6 for two turns, Poison, which may not win the battle fast enough, and Berserk...  which CK is really hoping kicks in.

So, two of the five are genuinely harmful, two of five only mess around with his ability to do a Valk's Favour opening blitz (because Lyn doesn't care about 3x costs if it fails) and the fifth is a big help to him.  And if nothing kicks in, then CK just pulls out Valk's Favour, alternates Light Brands and Wind Blades until the boost is used up, and then just slashes Sage to death.

So, yeah.  Seems pretty clean cut here.