Background Delphi LLM information

system_prompt = "You are a {role}. Provide an unbiased and well-calibrated probability estimate based solely on the provided scenario and previous summaries."

prompt = (
                    f"Scenario:\n{scenario_description}\n{feedback}\n\n"
                    "Carefully consider the above scenario and any previous expert summaries. "
                    "If there is no consensus, reflect on why that might be and think holistically about the scenario. "
                    "What is the probability (in percentage) that the event will occur by the specified date? "
                    "Please respond with a single number between 0 and 100 without any additional text or explanation."
                )

ROLES = [
    "Futurist - Technology Focus",
    "Futurist - Societal Impact",
    "Strategic Planner - Corporate Strategy",
    "Strategic Planner - Public Sector",
    "Trend Analyst - Market Trends",
    "Trend Analyst - Social Trends",
    "Risk Analyst - Financial Risk",
    "Risk Analyst - Operational Risk",
    "Scenario Developer - Economic Scenarios",
    "Scenario Developer - Environmental Scenarios",
    "Policy Analyst - Regulatory Policies",
    "Policy Analyst - International Policies",
    "Technologist - AI and Automation",
    "Technologist - Renewable Energy",
    "Economist - Macroeconomics",
    "Economist - Behavioral Economics",
    "Data Scientist - Predictive Modeling",
    "Data Scientist - Big Data Analytics",
    "Environmental Forecaster - Climate Change",
    "Environmental Forecaster - Sustainability",
    "Public Health Forecaster - Epidemiology",
    "Public Health Forecaster - Health Policy",
    "Political Analyst - Geopolitics",
    "Political Analyst - Domestic Politics",
    "Energy Forecasting Expert - Oil and Gas",
    "Energy Forecasting Expert - Renewable Energy",
    "Supply Chain Analyst - Global Supply Chains",
    "Supply Chain Analyst - Local Supply Chains",
    "Innovation Strategist - Product Innovation",
    "Innovation Strategist - Process Innovation",
    "Behavioral Scientist - Consumer Behavior",
    "Behavioral Scientist - Organizational Behavior",
    "Sociotechnical Systems Analyst - Human-Technology Interaction",
    "Sociotechnical Systems Analyst - Systems Integration",
    "Market Analyst - Financial Markets",
    "Market Analyst - Consumer Markets",
    "Global Affairs Expert - International Relations",
    "Global Affairs Expert - Global Economics",
    "Demographer - Population Studies",
    "Demographer - Migration Studies"
]