Exarion

FM Final 7 win rates

Dec 25th, 2020 (edited)
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  1. Based on trials, simulation data, and runs
  2. Assuming an average race deck (~6 equips, 1-2 big monsters, ~11 Thunders)
  3.  
  4. DUELIST WIN% GREAT DECK GOD DECK
  5. Laby Mage 94 96 98
  6. Sebek 98 98 99
  7. Neku 95 97 98
  8. Heishin 82 90 94
  9. Seto 70 79 83
  10. DarkNite 95 96 97
  11. Nitemare 70 82 89
  12.  
  13. NOTES:
  14. - An average deck is about 36% to first-try Final 6, which makes Seto 2 barely worth it
  15. - A great deck (3 combined MMs/MBDs + some other good equips) is 53% to first-try Final 6, which makes Final 7 worth it
  16. - A god deck (3-4 combined MMs/MBDs + many other good equips/removal/SKs/DMs) is 65% to first-try Final 6
  17. - Turn 2 Umi strat on Heishin is 75-80% to not get MM (and thus win). Good decks shouldn't do this
  18. - Turn 1 Umi on Nitemare (with 1 equip + THTD in hand) is 75% to win. Good decks shouldn't do this
  19. - Good decks benefit greatly from the extra cards you draw when Seto 3 plays backrow (which is why Nitemare might be harder)
  20. - At least half of Nitemare deaths are Ultimate quick kills
  21.  
  22. MEADOW FARM NOTES:
  23. - 1 duel gives:
  24. > 0.34 Dark Magicians
  25. > 0.15 Skull Knights
  26. > 0.15 MBDs
  27. > 0.78 big dragons
  28. > 0.15 Kaminari Attacks
  29. > 1.57 useful cards
  30. - 3 duels give (approximately):
  31. > 1 Dark Magician
  32. > 1 Skull Knight OR MBD
  33. > 2 big dragons
  34. > 1 Thunder (Kaminari Attack + star chips)
  35. - Decision to farm can be simplified to 2 questions:
  36. 1. Is it worth spending 4.5 minutes to get 1 Dark Magician, 1 SK/MBD, 2 big dragons and 1 Thunder?
  37. 2. Do I have a narrow lead that I will lose if I spend any time farming Meadow?
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