achapman [5:58 AM]
What are the data collection procedures? If its not gated by money or id verification I doubt it'll have meaningful results


bitcoinmama [5:58 AM]
I'm not sure, you can google it.


achapman [6:03 AM]
Just a sign up, so a low effort id verification kinda


micah [6:05 AM]
I feel like for this to work you expressly need it to be anonymous.


[6:05]
Like you need to go out of your way to make it easy for people to participate anonymously.


[6:05]
I sure as hell am not going to report my government about to commit an atrocity by going through some KYC first.


[6:06]
I should be able to predict entirely anonymously.


joeykrug
[6:06 AM]
"Please submit your report on these alleged crimes against humanity but first put your name on this gov't watchlist, it's purely for record-keeping purposes only" (edited)



achapman [6:07 AM]
Haha fair. If theres no gate or verification at all its basically useless though (edited)

[6:10]
Even wikileaks has some process for validating claims and information

micah [6:11 AM]
That is where the money comes in.

[6:11]
You only need an Oracle for whether the predicted atrocity happened or not.

[6:11]
Anyone can put money down on "atrocity X will happen" or "atrocity X will not happen".

achapman [6:11 AM]
Haha dark

micah [6:12 AM]
If the market is trading on the high end (atrocity X will happen) then it means it is very likely it will happen.

achapman [6:12 AM]
But more accurate im sure

micah [6:12 AM]
Right, and with that predictive accuracy, someone can attempt to stop it.  In fact, there is significant financial incentive to stopping the atrocity because you can bet that it won't happen and then take action.

achapman [6:12 AM]
Oh damn that is compelling

micah [6:13 AM]
There is also room in this market for people affected by the atrocity to effectively "insure" against the atrocity.  They can buy "atrocity will happen" and if it does, they make a bunch of money (to cover their white phosphorous burn treatment plan).  If the atrocity doesn't happen, they paid some premiums that go unused.

[6:14]
As usual, the hardest part of most really interesting prediction markets is defining the metric of success/failure.

achapman [6:16 AM]
It'll be interesting seeing what people do

micah [6:17 AM]
Certainly.

[6:17]
I'm looking forward to the first assassination market.  I'm curious if reporters report truth or report invalid.

[6:17]
I think we can all guess which one I'm hoping for...


achapman [6:26 AM]
Im in a deep discussion now with my father about assassination markets

micah [6:28 AM]
Does your father happen to be a hired gun?

joeykrug [6:28 AM]
I think mass atrocity market is a bit diff than assn market

achapman [6:29 AM]
He was a SEAL so technically at one point

joeykrug [6:29 AM]
For instance, will a genocide (grab some technical definition etc.) occur in country X before Y time?

Prob. not an assn market / no way is a market enough incentive to carry all that out imo

achapman [6:30 AM]
Yea they're interesting cases for different reasons definitely

micah [6:31 AM]
Yeah, assassination markets are definitely different from atrocity markets.  I hope both can thrive in the new world.  :stuck_out_tongue:


zadur [10:07 AM]
free market)

zadur [3:13 PM]
when audit end?

augurfan [5:21 PM]
two weeks

warsoverjohn [5:35 PM]
Does that mean launch is close ?

zadur [5:58 PM]
source?
Augur Fan
two weeks
Posted in #generalOct 11th at 5:21 PM

zadur [9:29 PM]
will it be possible to make changes in Augur code after launch?

john.danz
[9:29 PM]
yes

[9:30]
contract code changes we will want to keep to a minimum, but the UI/Middleware/AugurNode will be able to be upgraded in a more traditional manner so they will most likely see more iteration and development/improvement as time goes on, with less frequent contract changes as needed

zadur [9:31 PM]
what if SEC come to your harbor and ask to do something not good?

john.danz [9:31 PM]
which is why we are taking our time/being careful about the contracts because we don’t want to have to change them often

[9:31]
That would be a question for our lawyer :wink:

[9:31]
im just a dev/unwilling to give out speculative legal info (edited)

micah [9:32 PM]
Or a question for Micah, who is happy to give out speculative legal advice with no credentials.


[9:32]
@zadur Users will run the Augur UI they want "at will".  If some overbearing government tries to force Augur devs to make some change, that change will be public information and users can simply not use it.

[9:32]
There is no way for the dev team to force any changes on users.

zadur [9:33 PM]
cool

[9:37]
btw micah and this guy who created slack exchange, thank you both)  Now is much easier to help people interested about augur


john.danz [9:38 PM]
+ it’s pretty cool to be able to ask a question directly to the devs at your favorite crypto project and get a direct response. and even a joke if you are lucky :wink:

zadur [9:40 PM]
yeah there so clear answers about everything, without spam and in one place

jack [9:44 PM]
set the channel topic: come to your harbor and ask to do something not good

bitcoinmama [10:26 PM]
@micah To my mind, if assassination markets are not ruled invalid, regulatory scrutiny will be swift and severe. Even if the platform can’t be shut down, there’s no reason to draw a bullseye on its back unnecessarily, especially since the platform already involves wagering.

[10:26]
See also https://twitter.com/awrigh01/status/917846071107309569
Aaron Wright @awrigh01
Plaintiffs lawyers are coming for ICOs challenging whether these sales adhered to U.S. securities laws.

http://www.crossroadstoday.com/story/36263702/silver-miller-a-new-kind-of-law-firm-home-of-the-no-recovery-means-you-dont-pay-our-attorneys-fees-guarantee https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLzX0E_UIAA2Lg2.jpg
TwitterOct 10th at 10:15 PM (132kB)

micah [10:29 PM]
Censorship resistance is why I'm in the blockchain space.  :smile: You'll find that most of my arguments operate under the assumption that various governments _will_ attack Augur and the system is designed so that doesn't really matter.


[10:29]
That being said, there is some time early on in Augur's life where Forecast Foundation is fairly critical to success of the project, making them an early target.

[10:30]
Once the platform is established enough that FF being all thrown in jail doesn't have a huge negative impact, then I start :middle_finger: to regulators.

[10:30]
Well, I guess I :middle_finger: regulators already.  :stuck_out_tongue:

bitcoinmama [10:30 PM]
I get what your saying, but no reason to poke the bear if you don’t have to, in my view.

micah [10:31 PM]
I think there _is_ value in poking the bear as a means of proving that the bear is powerless.



[10:31]
There is definitely an optimal time to poke said bear, but none of us has control of when the poke occurs.

[10:31]
Anyone can create an assassination market, and it is up to reporters to decide whether it is invalid or not.

john.danz
[10:31 PM]
Power only works when people believe that it can be enforced, so as micah says, if you poke a bear that can’t actually enforce their will on you effectively it’s a great way to break the illusion of their power

micah [10:32 PM]
I think whether the first assassination market is valid or invalid sets the tone for future assassination markets.

achapman [10:32 PM]
even in the invalid case the assassin still would make (in theory) half the total interest in the market (edited)

micah [10:32 PM]
If it is predicted to be invalid for both outcomes, then no one will buy shares for anything other than 0.5.

achapman [10:33 PM]
I assumed the assassin market would just be the market creator offering yes shares for 1 attoETH, meaning a would be assasin buys them up and in the invalid case makes .5x however many sets the market creator bought

bitcoinmama [10:35 PM]
Agreed, but I wouldn’t be too sure that the government is powerless until the system is proven to be anti fragile and robust. I mean, bitcoin exchanges have been shut down in China and now Russia is on the war path. Governments can be very creative when they want certain behaviors stopped. They got Al Capone for tax evasion.

zadur [10:45 PM]
And China go to p2p. I tried to find at least one Russian crypto exchange, without results. What they ban?

micah [10:46 PM]
If it is believed that the assassin market will resolve to invalid, then non-assassins would buy up the shares knowing that regardless of outcome they will get 0.5 per share, so any share cheaper than 0.5 is worth buying.
Alex Chapman
I assumed the assassin market would just be the market creator offering yes shares for 1 attoETH, meaning a would be assasin buys them up and in the invalid case makes .5x however many sets the market creator bought
Posted in #generalOct 11th at 10:33 PM


[10:47]
In all of these cases, there is a central party to attack that can cripple the system.  The idea with decentralized systems is that there is no single target to go after.  There is no linchpin.
bitcoinmama
Agreed, but I wouldn’t be too sure that the government is powerless until the system is proven to be anti fragile and robust. I mean, bitcoin exchanges have been shut down in China and now Russia is on the war path. Governments can be very creative when they want certain behaviors stopped. They got Al Capone for tax evasion.
Posted in #generalOct 11th at 10:35 PM


achapman [10:50 PM]
Hm so it's essentially a race. I'm really not sure how these will end up in the real world.

bitcoinmama [10:50 PM]
I understand the point of disintermediation and decentralization, but governments can be incredibly resourceful when their interests are threatened.

zadur [10:50 PM]
I think the goal is to say at one day fuck off to government

bitcoinmama [10:52 PM]
@zadur https://twitter.com/cnbci/status/917677349554049026
CNBC International @CNBCi
Bitcoin suffers a flash crash after Russia proposes ban on exchanges selling the cryptocurrency http://cnb.cx/2wK4yje https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLw-r1cXUAAkq6g.jpg
TwitterOct 10th at 11:05 AM (166kB)


zadur [10:52 PM]
fuck off to their money, to their markets, this will mean rip to government

bitcoinmama [10:52 PM]
I agree, I don’t think that government does much very well except control people.


zadur [10:53 PM]
@bitcoinmama i read. This is bullshit, there no any Russian exchanges (edited)

john.danz
[10:54 PM]
I also just checked and the “flash crash” was like 100 dollars and its already recovered… i hate news articles on crypto, sometimes. (edited)

joeykrug [10:54 PM]
> I assumed the assassin market would just be the market creator offering yes shares for 1 attoETH, meaning a would be assasin buys them up and in the invalid case makes .5x however many sets the market creator bought


The problem with this is anyone can buy them. You’d be better off using a dominant assurance crowdfunding contract outside of augur

bitcoinmama [10:54 PM]
@zadur There used to be :joy: (edited)

joeykrug [10:54 PM]
Slash people will hop in front and try to buy <.5

achapman [10:54 PM]
yea it sounds like its not really a good use case

joeykrug [10:55 PM]
Ah just saw Micah’s comment

micah [11:08 PM]
Assassin markets _are_ a good use case IMO if reporters are willing to report on them as valid.

[11:08]
Where "good" in this context means effective at solving a particular problem, not as in "good for humanity" (though maybe they are also good for humanity). (edited)

[11:09]
Create market, offer to sell shares of "X is dead on or after Y date" for 1% of share value. (edited)

[11:10]
Assassin buys shares for cheap, guarantees event occurrence, then cashes in 99x on their capital investment.

[11:10]
Assassin fails, market creator gets the money the assassin put in (but no dead person).

[11:11]
All anonymous and censorship resistant.  And if you believe in the accuracy of the Augur Oracle, then also trustless.

zadur [11:14 PM]
if someone need the killer, he find him with augur or without

micah [11:15 PM]
Having a trustless mechanism for hiring a hitman would _really_ open up the market though.

[11:15]
Lower costs, get more people involved, etc.


bitcoinmama [11:20 PM]
And so wrong, IMO.

zadur [11:23 PM]
Most people hate the government and not without grounds. But can't change anything. The assassin market can make politicians more responsible for their actions

john.danz [11:26 PM]
Voting is supposed to solve that in a non violent way... assuming the vote is fair

jack
[11:26 PM]
I dunno, I've always thought assassination markets were kinda silly, since people can fake their own deaths and make a bunch of money off it

[11:27]
Plus if you wanted to kill someone, it seems like it'd be utterly counterproductive to announce that fact to them

bitcoinmama [11:28 PM]
:point_up:


micah [11:29 PM]
I feel like for political figures, there would _always_ be an open assassination market.

[11:29]
Like the Trump "is he alive" market would just be a constant background noise thing.

zadur [11:29 PM]
i don't think kill an anonymous, will the popular market
Jack Peterson
I dunno, I've always thought assassination markets were kinda silly, since people can fake their own deaths and make a bunch of money off it
Posted in #generalOct 11th at 11:26 PM


micah [11:30 PM]
An assassin buying up shares to kill Trump _would_ telegraph still, certainly.

jack [11:30 PM]
Zadur that was too zen, I don't understand :(


micah [11:31 PM]
> I don't think assination markets for random people will be popular.



zadur [11:31 PM]
i hate government :slightly_smiling_face:

micah [11:32 PM]
> I think assassination markets to kill political leaders will be popular.



zadur [11:33 PM]
then politicians will be afraid to do bad things)


bitcoinmama [11:33 PM]
I don’t like government either but think it will hurt Augur if assassination markets are not invalidated. No sense having Augur tarred with all the evils of the dark web while its trying to scale.


achapman [11:33 PM]
If that gets any significant volume I have a feeling that will be the catalyst for people contacting me with "Hey don't you work on this?" inquiries

micah [11:34 PM]
Heh, yeah.

[11:34]
> So you are the one building the system that has resulted in the murder of all politicians?
(edited)



achapman [11:35 PM]
To which I will respond ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

micah [11:35 PM]
Will these people be following that question with a clap on the back or a finger wag?


achapman [11:35 PM]
I have both sorts in my life


jack [11:37 PM]
IMO it's such an inefficient way to try a kill someone (political figure or no) that I don't really expect augur will be used for that, regardless of whether the markets get invalidated etc.


zadur [11:37 PM]
just imagine, all politicians on bicycles at 6 o'clock go to work

jack [11:37 PM]
I guess you never know what people will use things for tho :confused:


achapman [11:37 PM]
I don't think it will work, but even an attempt could drive traffic and discussion


[11:37]
and people will do as people do


micah [11:37 PM]
Yeah, who knew snapchat would be used for something other than dick picks. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


[11:37]
I surely didn't predict that.


achapman [11:37 PM]
heh


jack
[11:37 PM]
I think it would end up being an object lesson in _things that don't work (and are offensive to boot)_