Winnie's Crazy S5 Predictor - Qual #8

I've updated the predictor through Qualifier #8.  I also made a slight tweak to the score projection for people with 3 or 4 races remaining (4 or 5 races completed), which raises those scores slightly.

Projected Top 64 after Qual #8:
1. Fmz - 4232*
2. Icola - 4066
3. WTHH - 4008*
4. Sponge - 3971
5. SeYsEy - 3908
6. Marco - 3904
7. KCNecro - 3876*
8. Narcottic - 3864
9. SlyRyD - 3856*
10. Goomba - 3840
11. CheckRaise - 3840*
12. favio94 - 3803
13. iceninetm - 3800*
14. SariasObject - 3799
15. sanzeau - 3792
16. Skyward - 3788*
17. ArthurOudini - 3769
18. Exodus - 3748
19. Vodzilla - 3745
20. kariossa - 3729
21. mrmartin - 3729
22. gsk8 - 3727
23. rockchalk - 3726
24. Riley - 3718
25. Stuck_man - 3700
26. Elagatua - 3700
27. Flouflouche - 3697
28. Braaks - 3692*
29. Xef199221 - 3684
30. FantaTanked - 3684
31. Cola - 3678
32. WoodenBarrel - 3675
33. JustSam - 3668
34. Melrose - 3657
35. Sora - 3656
36. Yoyocanari - 3655
37. Aosuna - 3654
38. MrMario7788 - 3644
39. Cokotier - 3644
40. PhilippeTitou - 3640*
41. Alexis - 3607
42. juwk - 3592
43. drooness - 3592
44. YUSoEpic - 3592
45. Xopar - 3592
46. EarlWeird - 3588
47. zelgadissan - 3572*
48. PurpleRupees - 3570
49. Raikaru - 3564*
50. Ryuja - 3563
51. 2dos - 3560*
52. Gogeta - 3558
53. BrotinderDose - 3558
54. Jaybone25 - 3558
55. HaydeyPatatey - 3557
56. DylanMeeble - 3554
57. DareDevinX - 3553
58. kirkq - 3544*
59. DoitiEtok - 3536
60. alfalfa - 3526
61. Engel - 3526
62. Nopons - 3519
63. RyuuKane - 3517
64. GWL - 3512*

* indicates racers that have only entered 1 or 2 races


There are also some people who are just outside the projected top 64 that can easily make it in with some good scores (good defined as better than their current middle score, but still less than their current best score).  Generally, these are people who have demonstrated that they're capable of doing well (high 800s or better), but also have a few lower scores (or forfeits) which are impacting the projection.  By definition, this will only be people who have entered at least 3 races.  64th place is projected to be 3512 points, so here are all the folks whose projected good score exceeds that:

Cfalcon 3508 (65th) -> 3664
kr3z 3504 (66th) -> 3550
emosoda 3504 (66th) -> 3536
Chimpanreeve 3500 (68th) -> 3532
docheaps 3491 (70th) -> 3648.5
Kirox 3484 (71st) -> 3528
DubuDeccer 3467 (73rd) -> 3624.5
Digdig 3460 (74th) -> 3538
Gavaroni 3427 (77th) -> 3717.5
Kevin_818 3424 (78th) -> 3682
Aughoti 3412 (79th) -> 3518
zorro275 3409 (80th) -> 3610.5
Markars 3408 (81st) -> 3570
Weasel2366 3404 (82nd) -> 3638
AlexanderHD 3375 (85th) -> 3585.5
TheLightswoord 3358 (87th) -> 3626.5
Tubamann 3351 (89th) -> 3525.5
KINGsamps0n 3348 (90th) -> 3630
z3ph1r 3279 (100th) -> 3603.5


I've also updated the safety ratings of the current top 64.  It's still really early, so only a handful of people are likely to stay in the top 64 without any additional races.

Lock for top 64:
none

Basically guaranteed: 3rd place and up (3722+ points)
Icola
SariasObject
Marco

Very likely: 9th place and up (3604+ points)
favio94
kariossa
Xef199221
WoodenBarrel
Sora
Riley

Likely: 12th place and up (3512+ points)
juwk
Gogeta
Cola


Challenge Cup is even more volatile: only 20th place and up (3079+ points) is likely safe for top 128.  So far only 36 people have 5 non-zero scores (and only 59 people have even *entered* at least 5 races), so there is still a ton of zootr left to play, and anything can happen :)


Links to past pastes:
Qual #6: https://pastebin.com/Cu4k3eNn
Math Explanation: https://pastebin.com/7PJtwtcv