Yellow EQless - March 2018 (with Rock Slide)

UPDATE: https://pastebin.com/JbVzL3t9

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Do you play Pokemon Yellow? Are you unable to pb? Then do we have a deal for you! New, from the creative minds at memebig.net: it's EQless 2018. EQless is an idea that combines a unique formula of taking risk and masochism. Tired of using suboptimal strategy? Skip it! Can't stand fighting an optional trainer? Skip it! Just plain don't like the move earthquake? Skip it!!! EQless is perfect for fulfulling all of your speedrunning desires. Go EQless today and get your WR today!

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Rock Slide vs. Rock Slide Skip Comparison:

Save:
- Silph Arbok: Thrash 39-46 44.83-52.87% (Overall 2-hit Kill%: 46.0171%)
	> X Acc turn one = 3s.
	> Save 1 turn: 6s * 0.64 = 3.84s on average.
- Able to E4 Center Skip = ???s

Lose:
- No Rock Slide skip "loses 6s on average".
- Extra turn on Silph Flareon = 6s * 0.84 = 5.04s on average.
- Extra turn on Silph Meowth = 6s * 0.26 = 1.56s on average.

Lose: 12.6s
Save: 6.84s

Total: Lose 5.76s on average.

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Time Save Calculation: ~30 seconds.

Blizzard Risks: Erika (2 blizz) and Lance (2 blizz).

Added risks in a vacuum:
- Juggler 1 (<2%)
- Juggler 2 (<2%)
- Erika (<2%)
- Blaine (10%)
- Giovanni 2 (<5%)
- Lance (~5%)
- Alakazam (64.91%; 1 or 2 yolodrills)

Total (before champ): 1 - [0.98 * 0.98 * 0.98 * 0.9 * 0.95 * 0.9] = ~24% chance of dying.
Total (kinesis strats):  1 - [0.98 * 0.98 * 0.98 * 0.9 * 0.95 * 0.9 * 0.69] = ~50% chance of dying.
Total (yolodrill): 1 - [0.98 * 0.98 * 0.98 * 0.9 * 0.95 * 0.9 * 0.351] = ~75% chance of dying.
Total (champ freeze): 1 - [0.98 * 0.98 * 0.98 * 0.9 * 0.95 * 0.95 * 0.09] = ~93% chance of dying.

If you get IB (before champ): 1 - [0.98 * 0.98 * 0.9 * 0.95] = 18% chance of dying.
If you get IB (yolo drill): 1 - [0.98 * 0.98 * 0.9 * 0.95 * 0.351] = ~71% chance of dying.

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VERMILLION
- Shop: Delay selling, buy 3 repels.

ROUTE 10
- Must commit to strat upon exiting Rock Tunnel.
- Get Max Ether.

UNDERGROUND
- Get Elixir and Nugget.

ROCKSLIDE SKIP: https://pastebin.com/VpqZMURP

CELADON MART:
- Sell Nuggets and TM34
- 18 X Accuracy, 7 X Speed, and 3 X Special.
- Soda Pop -> Rock Slide -> Fresh Water.
- Poke Doll.
- Horn Drill, 10 Super Repels, 3 Super Potions.
- Fly Menu:
	> Swap slot 2 with Super Repels -> teach Fly, teach Horn Drill over Horn Attack.
	> Use Super Repel, swap slot 3 with X Acc, teach Rock Slide over Thrash.
	> Fly to Lavender.

LAVENDER TOWN
- Rival: X Acc + Drill x5
- Gastlies: RS.
- Get Both Elixirs.
- Poke Doll menu: Swap slot 4 with X Speeds -> Use Poke Doll.
- Rocket: X Acc + Drill x3.
- Center in Celadon.

SILPH CO.
- Walk to 5F -> get Elixir.
- Arbok: X Acc + Drill (TB x3 if para).
- Get Key.
- Silph Rival: X Acc + X Spd, Drill x4, RS x2.
	> X Spd on Magneton if Slash turn 1.
- GET LAPRAS.
- Team Rocket: X Acc + Max Ether Drill, Drill x2 + RS.
	> Meowth: Rock Slide 66-78 94.29-111.43% (27/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 74.2788%)
- Giovanni: X Acc + Drill, X Spd + Drill, BB, Drill.

CYCLING ROAD
- Elixir #1 in Snorlax Menu.
- Get Candy and PP Up.
- Get Max Elixir: http://pokeworld.herokuapp.com/rb/1#118,255

SAFARI ZONE
- Swap slot 5 with X Specials and use PP up on Horn Drill.
- Get Carbos and Full Restore.
- Get Teeth and Surf -> 20 items here.

FUCHSIA GYM
- Juggler 1: X Acc, Drill x4.
- Juggler 2: X Acc, Drill x2.
- Use Elixir #2.
- Koga: X Acc, X Speed, Drill x4.
- Get Strength

SAFFRON GYM
- Sabrina: X Acc, X Spd, RS + Drill x2.

MANSION
- Mom heal if no Super Potions and need to heal for Blaine. Use extra Elixir to skip E4 center -> Max Elixir for Giovanni.
- Use Super Repel, Swap slot 6 with Carbos, Teach Surf to Lapras, Candy to L42.
- Get Carbos and Blizzard.
- Use Super Repel, use Carbos, use Elixir #3 if no Mom heal, teach Strength to Lapras, teach Blizzard over Rock Slide.
- Get BOTH candies, Get the Secret Key.

CELADON GYM
- Beauty: Blizz
- Erika: Blizz x3.

CINNABAR GYM
- Blaine: X Acc + X Spd, Drill x3.

ELIXIR #4
- Use Elixir #4 BEFORE Blackbelt if no E4 center skip -> Blizz Machop.
- Use Elixir #4 AFTER Blackbelt if E4 center skip. USE MAX ELIXIR if took mom heal.
	> Blackbelt: Drill Machop.
	> Viridian Rival: X Acc on Sandslash or Exeggcute, Blizz x2, Drill x2, Fissure x2.

VIRIDIAN GYM
- Cooltrainer: BB.
- Rare Candy x1.
- Blackbelt: X Acc, Drill, ***, Drill.
    > Depending on Elixir #4: Drill OR Blizz.
- Giovanni: X Spd, Blizz, X Acc, Drill x4.
- Get Fissure.
- Use a Super Repel, teach Fissure over Bubblebeam (Moves: Fissure, Drill, TB, Blizzard.)

VIRIDIAN RIVAL
- X Acc on Sandslash or Exeggcute, Blizz x2, ***.
    > Depending on Elixir #4: Fissure x4, OR Fissure + Drill + Fissure + Drill.

ELITE FOUR
- Take Center or Max Ether (+ Buy full restores if kinesis strats).
- Lorelei: X Acc, Drill x5.
- Bruno: Blizz, X Acc, Fissure x2, Blizz, Fissure.
- Rare Candy x1 + Use Max Elixir.
- Agatha: X Acc + Fissure, X Speed + Drill, Fissure x3.
- Lance: X Spc, TB, ***X Spc, Blizz x2, TB, Blizz.
	> Set up 2nd X Spec on 1st or 2nd Dragonair.
- Teach Surf if 0 Blizzards.
- Champion: X Spc + Blizz, ***, Drill x4.
	> Go for freeze Sandslash: Blizz, X Acc, X Speed, Drill, Fissure, Drill X4
	> Kinesis strats on Alakazam: Kinesis -> X Acc -> Drill x5.
	> Yolodrill Alakazam -> X Acc on eggs + Drill X4.

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Candies: Moon, Cerulean, Tower, Bike Path, Mansion Ball, Hidden Mansion = 6
Carbos: Safari, Mansion = 2
PP Items: Max Ether, Underground Elixir, Tower Elixir x2, Max Elixir, Silph Elixir = 6
X Acc: Tower x2, Silph x4, Koga x3, Sabrina, Blaine, Giovanni x2, Viridian Rival, E4 x4 = 18
X Speed: Silph x2, Koga, Sabrina, Blaine, Giovanni, E4 x2. = 8
X Special: Lance, Champ. = 2

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Celadon Shopping: 26424 + 5000 = 31424

-> -20600 -> 10824
-> -500 -> 10324
-> -1000 -> 9324
-> -2000 -> 7324
-> -5000 -> 2324
-> -2100 -> 224

X SPEEDS: 7
X SPECIALS: 3
X ACCURACYS: 18
X item cost: 20600

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ALAKAZAM WIN CHANCE:

Assume:
- Any damage = death (0.6667).
- 2 Yolo Drill Chances.
	> Could do 3 -> TB x2 Cloyster, butI'm too lazy to calc it :D

Drill Hit: 0.3 Kill
Drill Miss: 0.7
- Not Kinesis: 0.6667 -> 0.4667 Lose
- Kinesis: 0.3333
    > Kinesis Hit: 0.8
		- Drill Hit: 0.198 -> 0.0370 Kill
		- Drill Miss: 0.802 Miss -> 0.1497 Lose
    > Kinesis Miss: 0.2
		- Drill Hit: 0.3 -> 0.0140 Kill
		- Drill Miss: 0.7 Miss -> 0.0327 Lose

GOOD: 0.3 + 0.0370 + 0.0140 = 0.3510
BAD: 0.4667 + 0.1497 + 0.0327 = 0.6491

Num Simulations: 1000000
nidoking died 64.939400% in 1.279434 turns
alakazam died 35.060600% in 1.144185 turns

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KINESIS STRATS SIMULATIONS
Assumptions: Kill within 4 turns or die.
Num Simulations: 500000
nidoking died 30.891600% in 1.824859 turns
alakazam died 58.977800% in 2.580334 turns

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LANCE WIN CHANCE (two EQs vs Blizz x3):

Assume:
- Set up on Gyara and 1st/2nd Dragonair in safe HP.
- Only die to crit or miss after 2nd x item use.
- Hydro Miss = win.
	> Only die to running out of Blizzards and/or getting crit: <1%.

NORMAL: EQ x2, TB, Blizz.

Hydro Miss: 0.2 -> win
Hydro Hit: 0.8
- Crit: 0.1563 -> 0.1250 lose
- Not Crit: 0.8437
    > Dragonair Crit: 0.1367 -> 0.0923 lose
    > Dragonair Not Crit: 0.8633
		- Blizzard Miss: 0.1 -> 0.0583 lose
		- Blizzard Hit: 0.9 -> 0.5244 win

GOOD: 0.2 + 0.5244 = 0.7244
BAD: 0.1250 + 0.0923 + 0.0583 = 0.2756

Num Simulations: 1000000
nidoking died 29.558500% in 1.763263 turns
dragonite died 70.441500% in 1.029893 turns

*****VS*****

EQLESS: Blizz x2, TB, Blizz

Hydro Miss: 0.2 -> win
Hydro Hit: 0.8
- Crit: 0.1563 -> 0.1250 lose
- Not Crit: 0.8437
    > Dragonair Crit: 0.1367 -> 0.0923 lose
    > Dragonair Not Crit: 0.8633
		- Blizzard Miss: 0.1 -> 0.0583 lose
		- Blizzard Hit: 0.9
			> Blizzard Miss: 0.1 -> 0.0524 lose
			> Blizzard Hit: 0.9
				- Blizzard Miss: 0.1 -> 0.0472 lose
				- Blizzard Hit: 0.9 -> 0.4248 win

GOOD: 0.2 + 0.4248 = 0.6248
BAD: 0.1250 + 0.0923 + 0.0583 + 0.0524 + 0.0472 = 0.3752

SUMMARY
- Forcing Blizz x3 is ~10% more likely to die

Num Simulations: 1000000
nidoking died 34.644000% in 2.037227 turns
dragonite died 65.356000% in 1.029791 turns

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Late celadon center theory (wip)

PROS                                Average         Best
- Save Turn on Tower Flareon        -5.0            -6.0
- Skip Heal before Snorlax          -4.0            -0.0
- Animations                        -1.7            -1.8
TOTAL                               -10.7           -7.8

CONS                                Average         Best
- 1 Extra Fly                       +9.2            +9.2
- 1 Extra Menu                      +1.0            +1.0
- More OHKO Text                    +0.3            +0.4
TOTAL                               +10.5           +10.6

NET                                 -0.2s           +2.8s

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TIME CALCULATION (WIP)

Extra 1hko text (0.4s): 11.2s
- Arbok, Kadabra, J&J (2), Giovanni 1 (3), Jugglers (6), Sabrina (1), Blaine (3), Blackbelt (3), Viridian Rival (3), Agatha (5) = 28 total

Less Crit Text on average (0.43s): 28 * 0.43 * 0.164 = 1.97456 or ~2s.
- Arbok, Kadabra, J&J (2), Giovanni 1 (3), Jugglers (6), Sabrina (1), Blaine (3), Blackbelt (3), Viridian Rival (3), Agatha (5) = 28 total

Shake vs. flash animation (0.92s): 25.76 + 1.1 for thrash wind up for juggler 1 = ~26.9s
- Arbok, Silph Rival (1), Silph Team Rocket (2), Giovanni 1 (4), Jugglers (3), Sabrina (1), Bliane (3), Erika (2), Rhyhorn, Giovanni 2 (1), Viridian Rival (3), Agatha (4), Lance (2) = 28 total.

Skipping super effective text (0.56s): ~4s
- Arbok, J&J (2), Silph Giovanni (3), Blaine (3), Giovanni (1), Agatha (-1), Lance (-2) = 7 total

Extra set up: 7 turns (avg/best): 5 + 5 + 5 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 7 - (1.446  * 6) = 31.5s ave. 2.5 + 3 + 3 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 5 = 25.5s best.
- Arbok (5/2.5), Silph rival (5/3), J&J (5/3), both Jugglers (6/4), Blaine (6/4), Agatha (7/5).

Average Saved Turns: 0.836 + 0.15 - 0.19 + 0.05 + 0.19 - 0.1 + 0.7 - 0.19 = 1.446 turns.
- Jugger 2 (0.836), Blaine (0.15), Erika (-0.19), Rhyhorn (0.05), Blackbelt (0.19), Giovanni 2 (-0.1), Agatha (0.7), Lance (-0.19)

        Animation off   red bar     Animation on    red bar
EQ      108             108         336             222
Drill   53              48          88              83

Drill timesave on champ over EQ:
- no red bar: 248 * 2 = 496 / 60 = ~8.3s
- in red bar: 139 * 2 = 278 / 60 = ~4.6s

Time loss:
- Extra 1hko text: 11.2s
- Extra set up: 30s ave, 25.5s best.
- Getting and using 3 extra PP items: 25s
- Worse Sabrina movement: 1s
- PP up = ~8s

Time save:
- Skipping EQ sequence: 64s
- Drill golbat: 5s
- Shake vs. flash animation (0.92s): ~26.9 seconds
- Skipping super effective text (0.56s): ~4 seconds

PROS                                Average         Best
- Skip EQ Sequence                  -64.0           -64.0
- Animations                        -26.9           -26.9
- Less SE Text                      -4.0            -4.0
- Drill Golbat                      -5.0            -0.0
- Drill Champ                       -8.3            -4.6
TOTAL                               -108.2          -99.5

CONS                                Average         Best
- Extra Turns                       +31.5           +25.5
- 2 Extra PP Items                  +18.0           +18.0
- Extra Menus (guess)               +3.0            +3.0
- More OHKO Text                    +9.2            +11.2
- PP Up                             +8.0            +8.0
- Worse Sabrina Movement            +1.0            +1.0
TOTAL                               +70.7           +66.7

NET                                 -37.5s          -32.8s