nonsense route

59%, 50%, 10%, 10%, 45%

5 M+ candies: 0.13275%
59% * 50% * 10% * 10% * 45% = 0.13275%

4 M+ candies: 2.77675%
41% * 50% * 10% * 10% * 45% = 0.09225%
59% * 50% * 10% * 10% * 45% = 0.13275%
59% * 50% * 90% * 10% * 45% = 1.19475%
59% * 50% * 10% * 90% * 45% = 1.19475%
59% * 50% * 10% * 10% * 55% = 0.16225%

3 M+ candies: 18.0905%
59% * 50% * 10% * 90% * 55% = 1.46025%
59% * 50% * 90% * 10% * 55% = 1.46025%
59% * 50% * 90% * 90% * 45% = 10.75275%
59% * 50% * 10% * 10% * 55% = 0.16225%
59% * 50% * 10% * 90% * 45% = 1.19475%
59% * 50% * 90% * 10% * 45% = 1.19475%
41% * 50% * 10% * 10% * 55% = 0.11275%
41% * 50% * 10% * 90% * 45% = 0.83025%
41% * 50% * 90% * 10% * 45% = 0.83025%
41% * 50% * 10% * 10% * 45% = 0.09225%

2 M+ candies: 38.0905%
59% * 50% * 90% * 90% * 55% = 13.14225%
59% * 50% * 10% * 90% * 55% = 1.46025%
59% * 50% * 90% * 10% * 55% = 1.46025%
59% * 50% * 90% * 90% * 45% = 10.75275%
41% * 50% * 10% * 90% * 55% = 1.01475%
41% * 50% * 90% * 10% * 55% = 1.01475%
41% * 50% * 90% * 90% * 45% = 7.47225%
41% * 50% * 10% * 10% * 55% = 0.11275%
41% * 50% * 10% * 90% * 45% = 0.83025%
41% * 50% * 90% * 10% * 45% = 0.83025%

Chance for 2+ M+ candies: 0.13275% + 2.77675% + 18.0905% + 38.0905% = 59.0905%