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- Yet simple fluctuations and changes do not suffice to explain that
- terrible phenomenon so marked in the last century and a half--the
- 'business cycle.' The business cycle has had certain definite features
- which reveal themselves time and again. First, there is a boom period,
- when prices and productive activity expand. There is a greater boom in
- the heavy capital-goods and higher-order industries—-such as industrial
- raw materials, machine goods, and construction, and in the markets for
- titles to these goods, such as the stock market and real estate. Then,
- suddenly, without warning, there is a 'crash.' A financial panic with
- runs on banks ensues, prices fall very sharply, and there is a sudden
- piling up of unsold inventory, and particularly a revelation of great
- excess capacity in the higher-order capital-goods industries. A painful
- period of liquidation and bankruptcy follows, accompanied by heavy
- unemployment, until recovery to normal conditions gradually takes place.
- -- Murray Rothbard, 1962
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