4/12/24-4/15/24 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

4/12/24-4/15/24 Update, day 779-782 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border:

Wagner PMC trainers have completed another training cycle of RU conscripts in Belarus, using local infrastructure to support them.

Poland will create a "cooperation council" with UA, under PM Donald Tusks office. The Polish foreign minister called on the US congress to rapidly pass aid for UA in the aftermath of a successful missile defense operation around Israel.

Poland is reportedly considering transferring its soviet era stockpile of air defense missiles to UA.

Lithuania has reportedly constructed some 600 km of defensive structures on the Belarusian border to deter smuggling.

A 12 year old UA bilateral amputee participated in the Boston marathon 5 km segment, representing a group in Lviv that fundraises for prosthetics such as hers.


Kyiv/Central Ukraine/Politics:

On the 12th, UA intercepted 16/17 shaheds and 0/1 missiles, primarily in SW Ukraine.

RU missile strikes targeted the Trypilska power plant SE of Kyiv causing significant damage.

UA increased the salary of military personnel at the frontline, raising the base salary to 2500 USD with a combat bonus of 1800 USD

UA is allocating some 67 million USD for school bomb shelters in oblasts along the frontline, from Sumy to Odesa. Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Zaporizhia oblasts will receive $38 million USD of the funding.

UA is allocating an additional $98.5 million USD for defensive fortifications, of which $43 million will be allocated in Kharkiv oblast.

UA intel services continue to reiterate that RU will increase its offensive actions this spring and summer. UA CiC Syrski commemorated the 10th anniversary of the 2014 "Anti Terrorism Operation" which was launched against RU-supported forces in the Donbas.

Over the last week, RU launched 130 shaheds, 80 missiles, and almost 700 glide bombs.

Zelensky and other UA politicians made statements equivocating unified support for UA Air defense to the joint operation which intercepted Iranian Shaheds en route towards Israel over the weekend, drawing reference to the fact NATO countries were involved, Article 5 wasn't involved, and Israel is not a NATO member.

The UA energy company Ukrenergo is requesting that consumers limit energy usage between 7 and 10 PM daily to allow for stable power.

The Washington Post reported that US VP Harris brought up "concerns" about UA strikes on RU oil refineries which annoyed Zelensky and were rebuffed. The UA National security council explained the strategy is cost effective, legitimate under the laws of war, and will continue.

UA is reportedly seeking to increase its production of Neptune cruise missiles, and raising their range to 1000 km. UA additionally is on track to produce 1.2 million FPV drones, with costs per unit as low as $350 USD.

Reportedly some 300,000 UA citizens work at over 500 defense industries currently.


Northeast Ukraine/Kharkiv city:

An RU recon group was repelled trying to enter Sumy oblast. An RU drone strike killed a truck driver along the border.

RU reportedly shot down a drone over Belgorod. Previously a drone hit the RU Gazprom gas company offices.

Following increased "double tap" strikes on first responders, the State Emergency Service is updating its protocols on full coverage body armor and recruiting additional staff to deal with high angle rescues and powerplant strikes.

Rotating blackouts continue in Kharkiv, with damage to natural gas distribution following RU strikes. RU strikes around Kharkiv continue, targeting a radar decoy to the SE of the city.

RU is reportedly targeting energy infrastructure specifically linked to large population and industrial centers, rather then generally en masse. Reportedly, RU wants to force UA to increase the utilization of Nuclear energy beyond safe operating levels to compensate, and thus risk accidents.


Kupyansk/Lyman axis:

RU continues to not launch attacks towards Kupyansk, although heavy shelling of the Kupyansk residential district and suburbs was noted. This led to significant forest fires in the SE, near Kupyansk Vuzlovyi

RU launched 4 assaults towards Terny from Kreminna. There does not appear to have been any significant change on the frontline here, with RU forces increasingly attempting expansive assaults to the NE of the frontline instead of direct strikes into the Zherebets river valley and Terny highway. UA artillery has been more active here, as have drones.

It appears that RU is continuing to have difficulty breaking through here, and as such continues efforts to expand the frontline and seek breakthroughs.


Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

There has been an increase in UA drone strikes near Kreminna and NE of Siversk.

RU launched a sizable assault NE of Soledar supported with MLRS and drone corrected grenade launchers, to no apparent effect.

RU has reportedly set a goal of May 9th to take Chasiv yar, and is focusing more of its efforts in this direction. RU launched 27 assaults in this direction in the last day, contesting more territory in the Chasiv Yar SE suburb of Ivanivske and contesting additional territory towards UA defensive positions near Kanal.

The NE suburb of Bohdanivka is reportedly a heavy target for RU forces, as RU troops occupy the field to the E and tanks engage each other in the village street.

RU's goal for Chasiv yar is to occupy higher terrain so as to threaten territory further to the W. UA troops report high amounts of RU drone coverage, complicating movement between ruined buildings, as RU grenade launchers are liberally used in conjunction with drones for rapid indirect fire.

RU is reportedly deploying additional VDV forces to this axis, as well as less-equipped forces which are chiefly used to advance and rapidly dig fortifications for later equipped units.

UA CiC Syrsky reportedly has cracked down on former "volunteer" heavy units such as the 67th brigade, which reportedly had issues with UDA/Pravdiy sektor commanders mistreating non-political party members and failing to behave with appropriate military discipline. Previously, these "volunteer heavy" units were allowed more latitude, but are now seeing standardization enforced.

The situation with UA Medevacs is highly complicated by both the RU drone/artillery coverage, and the lack of effective APC's for medevac from frontline positions. Combined with other factors, there has been a decrease in effective UA medical capacity at the frontline.

There are reportedly some 10 drones operating at any time per square km, between both sides.


Avdiivka/Pokrovske:

RU launched 12 assaults W of Avdiivka yesterday, with focus being to the NW and SW of the city.

RU has contested more territory to the NW of Berdychi, with considerable usage of glide bombs and return UA strikes on the supply lines leading W of Avdiivka. RU forces do not appear to have crossed the river here in force.

Ru forces continue advance and contest additional territory W of Tonenke, near Pervomaiske. There does not appear to be any RU movement across the river here at this time, although further reaching airstrikes and drone strikes on UA positions to the west are noted.

There has been an increase in volume of RU APCs used during assaults here, as well as less traditional vehicles like motorcycles. The increase in RU vehicle losses is equally apparent, at the cost of additional UA territory.


Donetsk City/occupied regions:

RU launched 26 strikes towards Konstantynivka in the last day, with increased air strikes on the town. There is no observed movement of front lines hear from Novomykhailivka or the Marinka highway axis near Pobjeda.

RU forces continue to contest the SE of Krasnohorivka, with both RU and UA dueling strikes along the southern perimeter of the city.

RU launched a glide bomb on a 5 story apartment in Ochertyn, Donetsk region.

The remains of 99 UA soldiers, primarily killed in Donetsk region, were returned this week.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

RU launched 5 attacks in E Zaporizhia, near Staromaiorske. RU launched 400 strikes on 8 settlements in Zaporizhia, with 240 artillery barrages and 144 drones.

There has been a noted increase in RU rocket and air strikes around Staromaiorske.

RU contested additional territory along the SW road into Robotyne, impeded by considerable UA cluster artillery usage on this route.

UA drone strikes have ranged increasingly far from the frontline here, targeting RU vehicles, air defenses, and apparently a strike on RU positions in Mariupol.

UA reports that RU will carry out additional threatening actions on the ZNPP, specifically the use of drones. All reactors in the ZNPP are now in a "Cold Shutdown" mode for the first time since 2022. Putin allegedly told the IAEA he plans to restore operation of at least one reactor.


Kherson:

RU launched 4 assaults towards the Krynky bridgehead. UA and RU drones continue to operate on both sides of the river

The SBU arrested a would-be assassination attempt on the Kherson military council head.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

RU launched 2 Kh-59 missiles towards Odesa which were intercepted. A UA radar was destroyed SW of Odesa.

UA reportedly struck a meeting of high level RU officers in Crimea, allegedly targeting leadership of the 810th marine brigade.

RU is reportedly strengthening its aviation presence in the Black sea to compensate for the reduction in RU Naval activity/presence.

The latest variants of UA USV drones reportedly can carry some 900 kg of explosives up to 1000 km.


Russia:

RU has restored the capacity of some refineries following UA strikes, going from 14%>10% offline.

RU is reportedly trying to incentivize military service with financial exemptions on loan repayment and credit card debt, as well as prohibiting firing the widows of RU servicemen for a year following their husbands death. This appears to be a short term rather then long term solution, given economic knock-on effects.

RU is reportedly recruiting women from penal colonies for military service, promised shorter sentences and money. There has been a noted culture of sexual predation from RU officers towards female soldiers in the RU military.

RU has reportedly stopped military rotations of naval personnel to Syria, with troops instead sent to UA. They will be directed to reinforce heavily mauled RU marine units such as the 155th.

General:

Over the last day UA forces launched  22 airstrikes and RU forces conducted 93 air strikes (including drones), and 98 MLRS strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

770 x soldiers (Total 454,420) [7 day avg 860].
31x APC
6x Tank
0x Air defense
41x Artillery (0xMLRS)
51x vehicles
31x UAV

Estimated cost: $80 million USD

total estimated cost- $100.7 Million/day per last 30 days, $3.0 Billion USD total over last 30 days.


Overseas:

Following a House GOP meeting, its reported that UA aid bill (among other  may be submitted as a seperate bill this week. The specifics of timing and amendment modification remain unclear.

Leaked proposal-
$19.85 billion USD in US stockpile replenishment
$14.8 billion USD for US DOD ops in Europe.
$13.8 billion USD for USAI, purchasing US weapons for UA
$7.85 billion USD in direct financial support for the UA Gov.
$8 million for inspector general operations providing accountability

Total: $48.43 Billion USD. There is speculation on an additional amount in humanitarian aid, as some $25 billion from the senate combined bill is excluded. Otherwise this aligns with the previous Senate bill.

The promise of an additional Patriot system from Germany was received positively in UA, stating it will take time for the battery to arrive.

UA pilots who recently completed the first stage of F-16 training in the UK will continue training in France.

The UK Foreign Minister stated that its impossible for UK aircraft to intercept drones and missiles over UA due to the potential for "dangerous escalation" with Russia, in contrast to the mission intercepting IRGC missiles.

The UK officially handed over two retired minesweepers to the UA Navy, which are located in Portsmouth.

Norway will reportedly supply some 22 F-16 to UA, of which at least 10 are fully serviceable. It will not happen before July.

Denmark will allocate $43 million USD for reconstruction and business development in UA.

The Netherlands will allocate 4.4 billion Euros to UA over the next 2 years for defense.

The US Treasury Department has introduced a ban on the supply of aluminum, copper and nickel produced in Russia going forward, including global metals exchanges.