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GenericMadScientist

Pokemon Pinball R/S probabilities

May 6th, 2018
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  1. To try and summarise what I've found:
  2.  
  3. For Catch 'Em All, first it does a roll for Lati@s. Your Dex needs to be at at least 100 and you need at least 5 pokes in the current run (there's also another way which I assume is eReader related). If those conditions are satisfied, it's 1% pre-Rayquaza, 2% post-Rayquaza. No check stopping double consecutive Lati@s.
  4.  
  5. Failing Lati@s, it picks a poke randomly from the available list for the area using probabilities that can change. Each poke in the list has a weight as follows:
  6. If it's the last poke from Catch 'Em All, assign a weight of 0.
  7. If the poke has no evos and you've caught no pokemon, weight 0.
  8. If it's rare (Nosepass, Skarmory, Lileep, Anorith, Feebas, Castform, Kecleon, Absol, Wobbuffet) it has a base weight of 1. Double it if the poke has been caught, double it if Rayquaza flag is set. Weight of 0 if no pokes caught.
  9. If that Poke and all its evos have been caught (Clamperl checks both, not looked at other split evo lines), give it a weight of 2. Else weight 10.
  10.  
  11. The prob of a Pokemon is (individual weight)/(weight sum).
  12.  
  13. For hatching, first is a roll for Pichu. You need to have at least 5 caught pokes, and Pichu is not your last hatched poke (again like Lati@s there's another way, presumably eReader or something). Then it's 2% pre-Rayquaza, 1% post-Rayquaza.
  14.  
  15. Failing Pichu, it makes a pool and checks it in a very similar way. Last hatched poke is weight 0, weight 0 if no evos and no caught pokes, weight 2 if it and all its evos have been caught, else weight 10. There are no rares here. Oddish is interesting; it only checks the evo for that board. Then the probs are calculated from the weights in the same way.
  16.  
  17. The game keeps track of which Pokemon you've caught across playthroughs (for the purposes of weight 2/weight 10), and this list is updated immediately (unlike Pokedex count). However, the checks of 5 pokes for Pichu/Lati@s/fully evolved pokes refer to the number of pokes caught in that specific game.
  18.  
  19. Oh, right I forgot to mention.
  20. Rares get their weight set to 0 if you have nothing caught.
  21.  
  22. Lastly: first poke cannot be Treecko because the initial poke is set to 0, which blocks Treecko due to the 2 in a row prevention.
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