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a guest Feb 26th, 2020 44 Never
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  1. Current model for 2020 presidential election.
  2.  
  3. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.
  4.  
  5. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  6.  
  7. False: Democrats hold the house now.
  8.  
  9. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
  10.  
  11. True.
  12.  
  13. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
  14.  
  15. True.
  16.  
  17. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
  18.  
  19. True.
  20.  
  21. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  22.  
  23. False. Coronavirus fears are tanking the market and this is expected to continue into the election.
  24.  
  25. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  26.  
  27. True
  28.  
  29. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
  30.  
  31. True
  32.  
  33. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  34.  
  35. False His presidency has been nothing but social unrest.
  36.  
  37. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
  38.  
  39. False. Impeached. Scandalized from day one.
  40.  
  41. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  42.  
  43. False. Trade wars with china. Tanking of Iranian nuclear deal. Syria.
  44.  
  45. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
  46.  
  47. False
  48.  
  49. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  50.  
  51. True
  52.  
  53. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
  54.  
  55. ??? If Bernie Sanders this becomes false.
  56.  
  57. According to this model which has accurately predicted the president 7 times out of the last 8 Trump cannot win.
  58.  
  59. As of now we have 6 false.
  60.  
  61. a 7th would be overkill.
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