a guest Feb 26th, 2020 44 Never
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- Current model for 2020 presidential election.
- When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.
- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- False: Democrats hold the house now.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- False. Coronavirus fears are tanking the market and this is expected to continue into the election.
- Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- False His presidency has been nothing but social unrest.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- False. Impeached. Scandalized from day one.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- False. Trade wars with china. Tanking of Iranian nuclear deal. Syria.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
- ??? If Bernie Sanders this becomes false.
- According to this model which has accurately predicted the president 7 times out of the last 8 Trump cannot win.
- As of now we have 6 false.
- a 7th would be overkill.
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