import requests
import json
import time

MAX_COUNT = 20  # number of pages of bets, counting by 1000
# times retrieved from https://manifold.markets/api/v0/slug/will-the-average-probability-of-thi
START_TIME = 1679884201443 # 7:30 PT on Sunday, March 26
END_TIME = 1680489000000 # 7:30 PT on Sunday, April 2
NEEDED = 0.5

def loadMarket():
    response = requests.get('https://manifold.markets/api/v0/market/will-the-average-probability-of-thi')

def loadBets():
    ret = []

    i = 0
    lastId = None

    while True:
        response = requests.get(
            'https://manifold.markets/api/v0/bets',
            params={'limit': 1000, 'before': lastId, 'contractSlug': 'will-the-average-probability-of-thi'}
        )
        bets = json.loads(response.content)
        print('loaded a set of bets')

        if len(bets) == 0 or i > MAX_COUNT:
            print('finished at', i)
            print('lastId', lastId)
            return ret

        for bet in bets:
            if bet.get('isRedemption'):
                # this is a payout, not a bet
                continue
            ret.append(bet)

        lastId = bets[-1]['id']
        i += 1

def round_manifold(percentage):
    if percentage < 0.02 or percentage > 0.98:
        return round(percentage, 3)
    else:
        return round(percentage, 2)

def calculateAverage(bets):
    currentSum = 0
    currentProb = 0.5
    currentTime = START_TIME
    for bet in bets:
        for fill in bet['fills']:
            if 'limitProb' in bet and fill.get('matchedBetId') != None:
                # we can ignore this fill, as it's a limit order fill that will be matched by another bet
                continue
            timeDiff = fill['timestamp'] - currentTime
            currentSum += currentProb * timeDiff
            currentProb = round_manifold(bet['probAfter'])
            currentTime = fill['timestamp']

    # account for the time after the last bet
    timeDiff = END_TIME - currentTime
    currentSum += currentProb * timeDiff

    average = currentSum / (END_TIME - START_TIME)
    return average

def main():
    global bets
    bets = loadBets()
    # we could extract fills and sort by timestamp but in practice this will be the same
    bets.sort(key=lambda bet: bet["createdTime"])
    global average
    average = calculateAverage(bets)
    print('current average', average)

main()