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- 4/18/24-4/25/24 Update, day 786-792 of Russian invasion.
- Belarus/Western Border:
- Belarusian leader Lukashenko stated that "several dozen" RU tactical nuclear weapons were placed in Belarus.
- The head of the Military Medical commission in Khmelnytskyi is being investigated for bribery, allegedly exchanging conscription exemptions for money.
- The head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) in Khmelnytskyi was charged with supporting Putin during sermons and promoting RU military units.
- UA foreign ministers and their hungarian counterparts continue to dialogue.
- Polish farmers plan to ease the blockade at certain checkpoints along the border.
- Poland will be unable to provide Patriot air defense batteries to UA due to a lack of supply, but will instead focus on other weaponry. Polands defense minister stated it is ready to assist in returning conscription age men to UA, but did not express details.
- German Economic minister Robert Habek formally opened a new drone factory operated by german company Quantum-Systems GmbH. Its expected to employ some 100 people by end of year, and inside of 2 years produce over 1000 drones/year.
- Czech representative to the EU proposed to limit the import of UA agricultural products in negotiations on the UA/EU free trade agreement.
- Moldova's pro-RU opposition parties met in Moscow to create a new "Victory" power bloc which intends to contest pro-EU Moldovan president Maia Sandu in this years elections. Political tensions continue to rise in Moldova, with repeated claims of RU meddling.
- Kyiv/Central Ukraine:
- On the 23rd, RU sent a complex wave of Shahed drones in difference directions to try and locate UA air defense positions and rates of response. 15/16 drones were intercepted and 0/2 ballistic missiles.
- On the 19th, UA intercepted 14/14 drones and 15/22 missiles.
- UA has increasingly been receiving electrical support from the EU high voltage line to prevent blackouts, over the past 3 days.
- RU hit rail infrastructure in Cherkasy oblast with a ballistic missile, damaging 47 buildings.
- UA signed a decree to curb online gambling, a significant issue in the UA armed forces.
- UA increased the total goal for Border guard staffing from 60k to 75k personnel, of which 67k would be military forces. This is due to go into effect after martial law is relaxed.
- The UA Defense Procurement Agency purchased some 4000 DJI Mavic3 drones for frontline units, for a total cost of approximately $14.5 million USD
- The UA government has allocated some $960 million USD in total this year to construct fortifications.
- UA reportedly expects some $38 billion USd in foreign financial support in 2024.
- UA is reportedly trying to secure an additional 4 patriot batteries for air defense.
- UA consular services abroad will temporarily restrict certain operations for men abroad who have not registered in the military database, specifically the issuance of new passports. This decision has been met with significant criticism by UA expats who decry it as a political stunt. The UA government clarified that people who are abroad will have 60 days to submit their information to the military registration service electronically once the mobilization law goes into effect, and it is not necessary to return to Ukraine to do so.
- As part of the new Mobilization law, people who were determined "Limited fit for service" will be re-examined and definitively classified as either "Fit or Unfit", which would mark a release from service.
- It is expected that RU will intensify missile and drone strikes in the coming weeks as they seek to take advantage of time before western aid arrives.
- The US is reportedly considering sending up to 60 military advisors to operate out of the embassy in Kyiv.
- The UA National security council stated that RU is not interested in creating a Soviet-style subservient state in UA, but rather wants total suppression and population replacement on the scale seen in Bucha and Bakhmut.
- In 2023, police seized 5500 firearms from citizens across Ukraine.
- The UA Ministry of Culture is divided on the proposed demolition of the soviet era "arch of Peoples friendship" in downtown kyiv, which has been modified since 2014 to reflect the breaking of trust.
- Northeast Ukraine/Kharkiv city:
- RU claimed to intercept 25/25 drones over Belgorod on the 19th, with infrastructure damage to warehouses reported. RU reportedly launches some 13 missiles a day into Kharkiv of various kinds, mainly in the NE.
- RU targeted the border city of Vovchansk with missiles, killing 2. RU drone activity across the border has increased lately.
- Additional gas turbine power plants are due to be delivered to Kharkiv to alleviate the power shortages in the city.
- About 209,000 customers experienced rolling blackouts in Kharkiv oblast. Two s-300 missiles cut a gas pipeline in central Kharkiv, damaging 4 apartment buildings.
- RU hit a major television antenna in Kharkiv on the 22nd, which collapsed visibly and dramatically.
- The SBU arrested a shopping mall employee in Kharkiv who was trying to locate "Kraken" unit locations for missile strikes, on orders of his RU handlers.
- 20.2 million UAH were allocated to constructing fortifications in Chernihiv oblast, and is about 50% of the total need in that region.
- Over 1/3 of damaged building compensation claims have come from Kharkiv oblast.
- Kupyansk/Lyman:
- An RU collaborator was arrested near Kupyansk while trying to coordinate RU strikes on the region. RU launched a single attack to the E of Kupyansk.
- There was a fairly deep UA strike on an RU Air defense BUK approximately 25km behind the frontlines in NE Ukraine.
- RU continues efforts to press towards Lyman, launching 19 assaults near the Zherebets river valley. Despite the increase in assaults, RU has only been able to advance a scant single forest belt to the N, as their main assaults towards Terny continue to generate no progress, and RU seeks to expand the frontline.
- RU is noted to be increasingly using "turtle tanks" or tanks completely sheathed with wood or metal overhead to try and resist UAV strikes. This reportedly slows them down even more, and reduces their viewing angle dramatically.
- Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:
- RU has increased its efforts near Bilhorivka to the E of Siversk, with a corresponding increase in UA drone strikes here as well. The frontline remains visually unchanged.
- RU is continuing efforts to capture Chasiv Yar but has not been able to bypass the Siversky donets river to the E of the town as of this time. RU is reinforcing troops here from other regions.
- Currently despite heavy RU airstrikes and artillery strikes near the E Chasiv Yar exurb of Kanal, there has not been any observed movement of the lines. The same applies to contested territory NW of Ivanivske.
- RU has made some gains SE of Ivanivske closer to UA defensive positions in Kliischiivka, contesting territory. UA strikes towards bakhmut supply lines have decreased in recent days. There was a deep strike on an RU BUK air defense system some 45km behind the frontlines.
- Budanov reiterated that RU will be conducting increased offensive operations until June, which will lead to more difficult situations at the front. RU launched 25 assaults around bakhmut in the last 24 hours.
- Allegedly RU is increasingly using Chinese or DPRK artillery munitions near Chasiv yar, which exhibit a higher dud rate.
- Avdiivka/Pokrovsk:
- RU continues efforts to push to the NW of Avdiivka, following UA units failing to reinforce the frontlines and allowing the loss of part of Ocherytne. Some 27 assaults were recorded here.
- RU successfully took the village of Novobakhmutivka and is pushing towards the smaller W village of Soloviove, and has advanced about halfway into Ocherytne. Bradleys from the UA 47th brigade have been seen here.
- There have been no major changes in territory to the SW of Avdiivka W of Torske, as UA strikes appear to interdict RU armored vehicles at assembly points.
- Over the last 2 months, UA lost 5/31 of the M1 Abrams tanks supplied, with 3 more moderately damaged, per NYT.
- Donetsk city/Occupied regions:
- RU continues efforts to push around Marinka to the NW and SW, launching 21 assaults.
- RU advanced to the W of Novomykhailivka along the river to Konstantynkivka, with RU flags raised in the W of town. Its unclear the exact control, as RU drone strikes continue to target UA forces in the town itself.
- RU forces have continued pushing into Krasnohorivka, aided by massive quantities of airstrikes, as they fight around a suburban cemetery in the SE and expand positions along the S residential district. RU is also heavily striking the main highway into Krasnohorivka from the N, with MLRS.
- RU has been heavily shelling Vuhledar as of late, primarily with glide bombs.
- UA is working on a 3rd line of fortifications in Donetsk oblast.
- 3 UA Railways personnel were killed and 4 injured during RU strikes on UA rail infrastructure.
- Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:
- RU launched a single attack into Staromaiorske, in E Zaporizhia along the frontline.
- RU forces have advanced to the south of Robotyne, contesting additional territory to the E fields along the main highway. There is heavy UA artillery usage here while RU uses airstrikes aplently.
- RU fired missiles into downtown Dnipro, killing 8 and wounding 34 more in an apartment building.
- There were a dozen explosions in and around Mariupol overnight, and RU claimed MLRS strikes.
- UA forces in Zaporizhia received 200 drones and other equipment from the Zaporizhia regional military administration.
- Kherson:
- RU launched 4 assaults into Krynky, and UA troops expanded their position to the SW of Krynky, apparently raising a flag near Kozachi Laheri.
- There has been an increase in UA drone strikes near Kahkovka over the past few days.
- Two older men near Kahkovka were killed by RU shelling on the 22nd.
- RU massively shelled Stanislav in Kherson oblast overnight, damaging some 48 buildings.
- Explosions occurred overnight in Mykolaiv when careless moving of ammunition from one vehicle to another detonated in a car park, killing 2 and wounding 7.
- Following a unified push from most of UA's journalism corps, the Southern Defense force's communications officer was dismissed from her post. She had been accused of drastically limiting reporters ability to communicate with units or travel around Kherson oblast.
- Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea
- On the 23rd, RU attacked Odesa with drones, injuring 9 people and damaging a total of 58 apartments in 22 buildings.
- UA struck one of the oldest ships in active service in the world, the Kommun supply vessel (from 1912) which was berthed in Sevastapol. It was hit with a cruise missile of some kind.
- RU has notably lacked any offensive ship presence in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea for several days now.
- RU fired missiles into Odesa on the 19th, targeting energy infrastructure. On the 20th, RU fired additional missiles which damaged houses and a gas pipeline, injuring a family. On the 21st, RU attacked port infrastructure with ballistic missiles.
- RU increased the police presence in Crimea, as it serves to bolster its exhausted military police units which are rotated there.
- 2 UA soldiers shot and killed a traffic policeman in Vinnytsia during a traffic stop before fleeing, as they were apparently attempting to smuggle ammunition and grenades. The father/son duo (26 and 52) were arrested by a SWAT team in Odesa oblast.
- A border guard from Odesa crossed into Moldova for unknown reasons during a night patrol and disappeared.
- On April 22nd, UA intercepted 5/7 drones over Odesa and the SW.
- Russia:
- An RU TU-22M strategic bomber was shot down, with Budanov and others claiming a distance of over 300 km. Its believed to have been shot down by an S-200, potentially with some modern touches.
- RU claimed to have intercepted a large UA drone attack on 8 different regions of RU on the 20th, with observed damage to energy infrastructure in Bryansk. 3 electrical substations and a fuel depot were targeted.
- UA additionally hit 2 oil depots in Smolensk, which held over 160,000 barrels of oil.
- In 2023 RU issued a record 3,000 visas to Nepalese citizens, as RU has conducted extensive recruiting in the poverty-stricken and isolated nation for its military forces, promising better pay and a stronger RU passport. Allegations were that up to 15,000 Nepalis had been
- recruited.
- RU blocked the websites of "Reporters without Borders" and the "I want to live" project which provides resources for RU soldiers to surrender.
- RU Vetoed and China abstained from voting on a UN security council resolution banning nuclear proliferation in space. This comes after reports that RU is allegedly planning a nuclear-based space EW style weapon.
- General:
- Over the last day UA forces conducted 12 airstrikes and RU forces conducted 69 air strikes (including drones), and 105 MLRS strikes.
- Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:
- 1040 x soldiers (Total 462,980) [7 day avg 841]
- 14x APC
- 13x Tank
- 1x Air defense
- 29x Artillery (1xMLRS)
- 57x vehicles
- 10x UAV
- estimated cost: $68.8 million USD
- total estimated cost- $90.5 Million/day per last 30 days, $2.7 Billion USD over last 30 days.
- Overseas:
- The US House bill on UA Aid was passed in the senate and signed into law by Biden, who stated that stocks were prepositioned for delivery. The US is already preparing a package of military support worth approximately $1 billion USD, and has reportedly already supplied long range ATACMS missiles to UA.
- The US is "putting the finishing touches" on one of its largest military aid packages to Ukraine to date, preparing to sign $6 billion worth of arms and equipment contracts for the armed forces.
- The US state dept published a report condemning the UA governments practice of restricting mass media under martial law.
- UA pilots in france have begun continued training on F-16s.
- The Netherlands allocated an additional 219 million Euros in air defense ammunition, both long range and short range for UA.
- Denmark will provide some 420 million euros worth of reconstruction for energy infrastructure in UA, and an additional 170 million euros for military support this year.
- The EU will provide some 230 million Euros in support and operational assistance to the Finnish border guards, in effort to prevent "migration as a weapon" from RU.
- The UK will provide an additional $625 million USD in military aid to UA, including 60 small boats, 362 lightly armored vehicles, and 1600 missiles (including air defense). This is the largest UK aid package to date.
- 15 fire services in the UK are bringing over 33 emergency vehicles to UA with equipment for firefighters.
- Former CIC Zaluzhny will start working as an ambassador to the UK in coming weeks.
- Germany offered to provide equipment from defunct coal power plants to UA, as part of a joint project with Lithuania.
- Some 3/4 of all German arms exports in the first quarter of 2024 were for UA. Germany called on the US to transfer at least one more Patriot battery in UA.
- Greece is reportedly ready to transfer a patriot battery to UA under assurances from the US for defense.
- The EU is reportedly more reluctant then the US to utilize seized RU assets for funding UA. The Swedish foreign minister stated the EU wants to introduce sanctions against the RU "Shadow fleet" of tankers evading sanctions with RU oil.
- NATO is increasing pressure on Greece and Spain to provide additional air defense systems, as UA claims they need a minimum of 7 additional long range (S-300/Patriot) systems to defend its territory. The Spanish and Greek armed forces have over a dozen Patriot and S-300 systems between them.
- Latvia is ready to hand over short range AA missiles to Ukraine.
- Georgia extended the visa-free period for UA citizens for up to 3 years. About 27,000 UA citizens are in Georgia.
- Switzerland currently has frozen RU assets worth $6.36 billion, a decrease of 1.86 billion USD from 2023, as the assets have devalued.
- Following protests from the UA Consulate in New York, the RU Mariinsky theater canceled their planned performance in New York.
- Zelensky rejected any proposed "Olympic truce", stating that RU would only use a pause to regroup and bring additional forces to bear.
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