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  1. // Refining probability testing done to see why the success rate seems so off.
  2. // TL;DR: Seems like the success estimate has an error in the calc causing it to be way off, and the
  3. // calculation for determining if the refine succeeds or not had an int overflow in the numerator.
  4. //
  5. // Results:
  6. // Item: Item Name
  7. // Current In Game Success Rate: The success rate shown in the game client with that Lisent.
  8. // Estimated Success Rate: The original code for estimating success rate
  9. // Actual Success Rate: The % of times succeeding with the original code run 100,000 times
  10. // Fixed Estimated Success Rate: The success rate with the "fixed" calculation
  11. // Fixed Success Rate: The % of times succeeding with the "fixed" code run 100,000 times
  12. //
  13. // Results are ordered using Hg, Na, and Cr
  14. // Tests done with:
  15. // Holy Staid Gentleman Shoes (7) 115 dura (quality 76)
  16. // Gachapin Hat (4) 98 dura (quality 55)
  17. // Redfield Chairman Suit (7) 94 dura (quality 67)
  18. // Stunna Shades (8) 120 dura (quality 100)
  19. // Astarot Wings of Corruption (8) 120 dura (quality 16)
  20.  
  21. REFINES PROBABILITY TEST
  22. Item: Holy Staid Gentleman Shoes
  23. Current In Game Success Rate: 21%
  24. Estimated Success Rate: 21%
  25. Actual Success Rate: 55.983%
  26. Fixed Estimated Success Rate: 40%
  27. Fixed Success Rate: 40%
  28.  
  29. REFINES PROBABILITY TEST
  30. Item: Holy Staid Gentleman Shoes
  31. Current In Game Success Rate: 27%
  32. Estimated Success Rate: 27%
  33. Actual Success Rate: 62.945%
  34. Fixed Estimated Success Rate: 47%
  35. Fixed Success Rate: 48%
  36.  
  37. REFINES PROBABILITY TEST
  38. Item: Holy Staid Gentleman Shoes
  39. Current In Game Success Rate: 32%
  40. Estimated Success Rate: 32%
  41. Actual Success Rate: 70.108%
  42. Fixed Estimated Success Rate: 54%
  43. Fixed Success Rate: 54%
  44.  
  45. REFINES PROBABILITY TEST
  46. Item: Gachapin Hat
  47. Current In Game Success Rate: 99%
  48. Estimated Success Rate: 99%
  49. Actual Success Rate: 100%
  50. Fixed Estimated Success Rate: 99%
  51. Fixed Success Rate: 100%
  52.  
  53. REFINES PROBABILITY TEST
  54. Item: Gachapin Hat
  55. Current In Game Success Rate: 99%
  56. Estimated Success Rate: 99%
  57. Actual Success Rate: 100%
  58. Fixed Estimated Success Rate: 99%
  59. Fixed Success Rate: 100%
  60.  
  61. REFINES PROBABILITY TEST
  62. Item: Gachapin Hat
  63. Current In Game Success Rate: 99%
  64. Estimated Success Rate: 99%
  65. Actual Success Rate: 100%
  66. Fixed Estimated Success Rate: 99%
  67. Fixed Success Rate: 100%
  68.  
  69. REFINES PROBABILITY TEST
  70. Item: Redfield Chairman Suit
  71. Current In Game Success Rate: 19%
  72. Estimated Success Rate: 19%
  73. Actual Success Rate: 46.134%
  74. Fixed Estimated Success Rate: 38%
  75. Fixed Success Rate: 39%
  76.  
  77. REFINES PROBABILITY TEST
  78. Item: Redfield Chairman Suit
  79. Current In Game Success Rate: 25%
  80. Estimated Success Rate: 25%
  81. Actual Success Rate: 53.156%
  82. Fixed Estimated Success Rate: 45%
  83. Fixed Success Rate: 45%
  84.  
  85. REFINES PROBABILITY TEST
  86. Item: Redfield Chairman Suit
  87. Current In Game Success Rate: 30%
  88. Estimated Success Rate: 30%
  89. Actual Success Rate: 60.054%
  90. Fixed Estimated Success Rate: 52%
  91. Fixed Success Rate: 52%
  92.  
  93. REFINES PROBABILITY TEST
  94. Item: Stunna Shades
  95. Current In Game Success Rate: 0%
  96. Estimated Success Rate: 1%
  97. Actual Success Rate: 70.152%
  98. Fixed Estimated Success Rate: 12%
  99. Fixed Success Rate: 12%
  100.  
  101. REFINES PROBABILITY TEST
  102. Item: Stunna Shades
  103. Current In Game Success Rate: 0%
  104. Estimated Success Rate: 3%
  105. Actual Success Rate: 74.923%
  106. Fixed Estimated Success Rate: 17%
  107. Fixed Success Rate: 18%
  108.  
  109. REFINES PROBABILITY TEST
  110. Item: Stunna Shades
  111. Current In Game Success Rate: 0%
  112. Estimated Success Rate: 7%
  113. Actual Success Rate: 80.232%
  114. Fixed Estimated Success Rate: 22%
  115. Fixed Success Rate: 23%
  116.  
  117. REFINES PROBABILITY TEST
  118. Item: Astarot Wings of Corruption
  119. Current In Game Success Rate: 0%
  120. Estimated Success Rate: 42%
  121. Actual Success Rate: 68.177%
  122. Fixed Estimated Success Rate: 67%
  123. Fixed Success Rate: 67%
  124.  
  125. REFINES PROBABILITY TEST
  126. Item: Astarot Wings of Corruption
  127. Current In Game Success Rate: 0%
  128. Estimated Success Rate: 50%
  129. Actual Success Rate: 77.109%
  130. Fixed Estimated Success Rate: 76%
  131. Fixed Success Rate: 77%
  132.  
  133. REFINES PROBABILITY TEST
  134. Item: Astarot Wings of Corruption
  135. Current In Game Success Rate: 0%
  136. Estimated Success Rate: 57%
  137. Actual Success Rate: 86.123%
  138. Fixed Estimated Success Rate: 85%
  139. Fixed Success Rate: 86%
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