There’s a version of Occam’s Razor that goes, “When you hear hoofbeats, think of horses not zebras.” If I’m sitting at home, and I hear hoofbeats outside my window, I will assume that horse is going by, because I live in Texas, and there are three horses that live across the street from my apartment building. If I look outside and see a horse, I will not be surprised, because I have deemed that to be the most likely option.
If I look out my window and see a zebra, or a giraffe, or an antelope, I will be surprised, because it is not what I expected, but this will not change my reality, because despite the very unlikeliness of one of these animals escaping from a zoo and stampeding down my street, it is at least something that I understand to be physically possible.
Now, if I look out my window and see Benjamin Franklin and Freddie Mercury riding two-to-a-saddle on the back of a unicorn, I would question this, because this, unfortunately, is not something that is possible in this world.
It’s a simplification, but based on what we know about the world, we can reduce these events into three categories of possibility: Likely, Unlikely, and Impossible.
Now, if our tribe hears hoofbeats, what do we think of? Our existing assumptions of probability are out the window. We don’t know what kind of hoofed animal lives on our fictional planet. Our tribe is no more or less likely to see a horse than they are a zebra. It’s also entirely possible that unicorns exist in this world, and possible that the hoofed beast could be an entirely new concept, that hasn’t even existed before in fiction.
Lacking information, we cannot make the same assumptions that we would make in our real world, and we need to adjust our thinking to approach problems differently.
Take our example that started the whole kerfuffle: mercury poisoning. If this were a patient in the real world, we could safely rule out mercury poisoning, as the symptoms do not match up to the known observed symptoms of mercury poisoning, and we know that mercury poisoning cannot be cured by herbs. Dementia would perhaps be in the Likely category, Parkinson’s in the Unlikely category, and mercury poisoning would be Impossible.
However, we cannot make that same judgment here in the game world. We are lacking key information, such as: How does the biology of our species compare to humans? Do we experience the same symptoms from mercury poisoning? Does mercury even exist in our game world? What are the capabilities of this herb?
Without knowing these key facts and others, we cannot make assumptions and take for granted that the things we think we know are actually true in the game world. In this game, the things that we know to be Likely are no more reasonable than things that are Unlikely, and things that we know as Impossible are, in fact, entirely Possible, and our thinking should reflect that.
So what does this mean practically for our patient? Our most likely real-world option is dementia, so this is an excellent place to start. We could also look at related diseases like Alzheimer’s, or diseases that share some symptoms, like Parkinson’s. But there are other angles to consider. Mercury poisoning is too specific to be a practical concern, but if we take a positive approach to the idea, instead of a negative approach, we might find something. What about mercury poisoning would need to be changed for it to be a possibility? Is there something else that would fit the changed criteria? We don’t know what the elemental makeup of our world is – could there be an element similar to mercury that causes these ill effects? We know Dances-With-Fires and the hunters became ill after being exposed to something in the volcano – could this be related? If we do find that this is caused by exposure to some sort of toxic element, then comparing how mercury poisoning is treated may help us find an answer.
Nothing should be off the table. We can’t dismiss ideas out of hand for being impossible in the real world, because the rules are different. Sometimes, it’s going to be zebras and unicorns.
But let’s put all that aside. When it comes down to it, this is a game. A cooperative, collaborative game. The response to a suggestion in a game should never be a flat ‘no.’ It’s not constructive, it’s not friendly, and it’s not fun.