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Why did the TF2 keys rise?

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May 6th, 2013
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  1. This is LONG, but stick with it.
  2. Hello! I am Asterian Starfall and today I will be talking to you about a topic most of us simply hate: Backpack.tf Key Suggestions.
  3. Before we can begin to analyze where we are now, we have to go back to the beginning of this. Although there is no definative way of judging when this all began, I think we can safely say that this all began back in late October, early November of 2012, which was when backpack.tf started to become popular. This popularity started because people were tired of spreadsheets that could be easily manipulated and controlled for a single person or group's interests. At the same time, key prices began to rise slightly. Some people, including the administrators of backpack.tf, attribute this to the fact that new halloween items were now in circulation, as well as festive items that were on the way. While this in a perfect world would make sense, it doesn't quite work in our world. If this statement were true, keys would have stopped rising after christmas and would have stalled at about 3.55 each, before finally going back down to their original 2.77 price, which leads us to this question: Why did they continue to rise? Well, we know that the halloween/festive items didn't actually influence the price, and we also know that backpack.tf became popular around the same time keys began to rise. This is very revealing, especially when you take into account that the public at large does not control backpack.tf's prices. As of 5/6/2013, the admins, or the people who control whether price suggestions pass or not, consists of the following people:
  4. Soundtrack, Sir J-j-jon, shenanigans, Chief Shoe, Michael Puddington, cleverpun, Mr. Bucket, A Distinctive Lack of Vincent, Brad Pitt.
  5. Vincent seems to be the one who accepts most of the key suggestions, and his net worth in TF2 also equals $2600 USD, thanks to keys and unusuals. However, to be fair, he may just be a very good trader, but that seems unlikely, as his backpack was worth only a third that amount less than 3 months ago. So what does this mean? Backpack.tf started getting popular at around the same time as keys began to rise. We also know that the admins have complete control over the site, and thus have a virtual stranglehold on the market, which influences roughly 8 million TF2 players. People are now trusting a monopolistic market, which is what they hoped to avoid by joining backpack.tf in the first place. So what about the suggesters of key prices? Unfortuneately, it seems they are in the same boat as most of the admins. Every single admin has a net worth of at least $1000 USD, and the price suggesters themselves have a sizeable amount of keys. Although there have been some key suggestions recently by the community, the three most pronounced are:
  6. Long218, Mattje, Hatch Rawer Beryl.
  7. Long has made the majority of the recent key suggestions, and he himself has about 600 keys, as of 5/6/2012. Most of these suggestions are hated by the community and recieve far more downvotes than upvotes, but the suggestions usually pass anyway. Again, this is because an admin is chosen to pass or deny the suggestion; one person influences whether or not to give someone and probably themselves and additional 50 or so in refined metal, which is USD translates to about $18. Long was however banned from making key suggestions for a short time, as the community caught on to the fact he was manipulating the price. While this is true, most people miss the bigger picture, which is admins control everything on this site, and one person determines 8 million people's fate. Sadly, greed has overcome, and keys have risen to over double their original value in less than half a year. Going back to Long being banned. The admins were profitting greatly from Long, so why did they ban him? The answer to this is rather simple: To create a false sense of security to the general public that they influence the price. As we can see, nothing is further from the truth.
  8. Onward to Mattje. She has only made one key suggestion that has passed, so she's not entirely manipulating the price, but she does have the most expensive backpack is TF2 history; over $26000 USD. She had about 8,600 keys at the time of her suggestion, which passed a one scrap change. 8,600 x .11 x $1.50 USD = $1419 USD in pure profit.
  9. Hatch Rawer Beryl is essentially Long with a different name. Whilst Long was banned, he stepped up and single-handedly raised key prices roughly 12% in less than one month.
  10. So what is clear from this? We know that a select few individuals with corrupt intents control hundred of thousands, if not millions of dollars of virtual goods. These individuals rob the public of what little wealth they have left. They have a monopolistic stranglehold on the market, and have managed to convince the public that the public controls the market. This group is incredibly clever and have outsmarted 8 million people, and as long as we continue to believe we influence the price, we lend ourselves to being completely enslaved. They know this. They also know something that we must never know: If people ever realize that when we stop listening to them, their monopoly will collapse upon itself like a house of cards.
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