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- (a) consider computing P(e) using variable elimination
- First we have factors
- f(a)
- f(b)
- f(abc)
- f(bd)
- f(ec)
- f(fc)
- We then sum out a which eliminates f(A) and f(ABC)
- generating f(BC) where p(c|b) = 0.1(0.9) + 0.9(0.3) = 0.36
- and p(c|¬b) = 0.1(0.8) + 0.9(0.4) = 0.44
- We then sum out f which eliminates f(fc) generating f(c).
- we then sum out d which eliminates f(db) generating f(b).
- we then sum out b which eliminates f(bc) and f(b), generating f(c) where
- p(c)= 0.8(0.36) +0.2(0.44) = 0.376
- We then sum out c which eliminates all our factors of f(C) and f(ec) leaving us with f(e) where p(e) = 0.7(0.376) + 0.2(0.624) = 0.388
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