MM dog race stuff

Positive messages:
Ruff! ...Today, I should do pretty well.
Ruff! My four paws feel lighter than usual today!
Ruff! Today, I feel like I can win...
Ruff! ...I'm here for my wife and child. There's no way I'll lose!
Ruff! Oh, yeah! I feel unstoppable. I don't think I'll lose!

Negative messages:
Hoo-whine. Oh, my belly hurts! Ugh, I feel terrible...
Hoo-whine. I'm tired. I'm gonna take the day off tomorrow. Can dogs do that?
Hoo-whine. My head! I stayed up too late... I shouldn't have been barking at that moon all night...
Hoo-whine. I'm too old for this. My right leg hurts...The hind one...

Rule:

English
Ruff!		= good
Rrr-Ruff!	= neutral
Hoo-whine.	= bad

Japanese
ワン！		= good
ウ～、ワン！	= neutral
ク～ン		= bad

You only need to read the first word of the text box to pick a good dog.

Base speeds:
Colour	Initial	Final
White	5.0		5.5
Grey	5.0		5.0
Beige	5.5		5.0
Brown	4.5		5.5
Blue	6.0		4.0
Gold	4.0		6.0

Final base speed is used after approximately the first sixth of the track has been covered. See this image: http://i.imgur.com/Lej3uZo.png

Unless the dog is blue, its initial base speed will only be used at the very start of the race. Its initial base speed will then be counted as 5.0 regardless of the actual value.

Every time a dog has moved a certain distance, its speed will be recalculated as:
speed = base speed + random(-0.5,0.5)

Any dog that gave one of the positive messages will receive a 20% boost in speed while not in first position. This is applied after the speed calculation.

When a dog is approaching the finish line, it can receive a sprint multiplier if it is not in first position. See this image: http://i.imgur.com/PVXSqiY.png
The first dog to pass this point will always receive a sprint multiplier of 1.0 and then a frame counter is triggered. Each subsequent dog will receive a sprint multiplier when passing this point equal to:
sprint = 200/(200 - frame count)
This multiplier is capped at 2.0 and after this point a dog's speed will be calculated as:
speed = base speed * sprint
Any dog that gave a negative message will not receive a sprint multiplier, however. The 20% speed boost rule still applies for dogs that gave positive messages.

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So on the topic of whether or not the blue dog can actually win: it's not really possible. Even with perfect RNG and a good message, the blue dog loses out due to its low base speed over most of the course. Realistically, it would probably place 4th-5th at very best.

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For speedruns:
If the gold dog does not have a good message, a white or brown dog with a good message should be likely to finish in first place. Even though their top speed (best RNG) will only be the same as the gold dog's base speed, the 20% boost for a good message means they are still likely to develop a lead over the race track as they move in and out of first position. However, this is less reliable than using the gold dog since there may be other dogs with the same base speeds that also had a good message.

For reference, I will put here the highest and lowest possible speeds excluding the first 1/6 of the track for different scenarios (not including sprint):

Good message, 2nd or lower position:
Colour	Highest	Lowest
White	7.2		6.0
Grey	6.6		5.4
Beige	6.6		5.4
Brown	7.2		6.0
Blue	5.4		4.2
Gold	7.8		6.6

Good message, 1st position/any message, any position:
Colour	Highest	Lowest
White	6.0		5.0
Grey	5.5		4.5
Beige	5.5		4.5
Brown	6.0		5.0
Blue	4.5		3.5
Gold	6.5		5.5

So some notes:
White/brown dogs outspeed the gold dog on average if they got a better message OR the gold dog is in first position.
Gold dog with a good message always moves faster than the dog in first position if overtaken. This is not guaranteed for any other colour of dog.
It is impossible for the blue dog to move faster than the gold dog or for it to move fast enough to maintain first position.