Expected Outcome for Maine Ballot 2016, Question 4

Method for individual parties:      (Votes in Favor) / (Total Votes Decided)

Expected result for Democrats based only on Favor and Oppose:       .83 / .93 = 89%
Expected result for Independents based only on Favor and Oppose:    .57 / .83 = 69%
Expected results for Republicans based only on Favor and Oppose:    .36 / .87 = 41%


Method for overall vote:        (Expected for Party) * (Party Representation)

Expected result overall based only on Favor and Oppose:     .89 * .32 + .69 * .38 + .41 * .30 = 67%


Method for individual parties:      (Votes in Favor) + (Votes Undecided)

Expected result for Democrats with undecided counting as in Favor:      .83 + .7 =  90%
Expected result for Independents with undecided assumed to average to 0:            57%
Expected result for Republicans with undecided counting as Opposed:     .36      =  36%


Expected result overall with undecided going to party expectation:      .9 * .32 + .57 * .38 + .36 * .30 = 61%