[21:10:51] <+TallTim>Actually it allows me to see smaller trend timings. I'm now looking at the thirty minute bar.
[21:12:01] <quirx>i thought the real money was in algorithms today... not trying to read charts
[21:12:15] <nsh>TallTim, statisticians have a word for "smaller trends"
[21:12:15] <+TallTim>My indicators are algorithms.
[21:12:38] <+TallTim>Statisticians also don't know about price data being leptokurtotic
[21:12:48] <+TallTim>which throws the random walk out the window
[21:13:02] <+TallTim>also, the hurst exponent, which suggests past prices influencing future ones.
[21:13:03] nsh reads wikipedia articles frantically
[21:13:29] <+TallTim>Market data consistently scores above 0.50 on the Hurst - which is above randomness - therefore, there is influence.
[21:14:45] ChanServ sets mode +v numismatics
[21:15:05] <+TallTim>Scalpers would like to know that it looks likely we'll cross into a mini-bull phase on the 30 minute.
[21:15:10] <nsh>my suspicion is that deviations from randomness do not necessarily entail tractability of prediction
[21:15:11] <+TallTim>Not quite there yet though.
[21:15:39] <+TallTim>Yes, the guassian 'random walk' theory.
[21:15:47] <+TallTim>I've just suggested that prices aren't random.
[21:15:49] <+zzorn>For general educatification of the channel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leptokurtotic#Terminology_and_examples
[21:16:06] <LorenzoMoney>If that is what it takes to get you to accept your position as future number 2 Bitcoin escrow company, you are right,
[21:16:44] <+TallTim>The only problem with bull/bear on this scale - or any scale - is lack of being able to tell you magnitude.
[21:16:53] <+TallTim>I'm working on it, but it is a difficult problem.
[21:16:53] deadalus 's brain asplode
[21:17:23] <+TallTim>Leptokurtotic just means -- the excursions to the 'tails' of the distribution are too 'fat'... you get multiple sigma events from the mean that don't fit probability.
[21:17:33] <+TallTim>and the mean is usually narrow and quite high.
[21:18:07] <+TallTim>Just a fancy way of saying you have different characteristics in price data than you do measuring a populations height, for example.
[21:18:22] <+TallTim>Which is the most cited example for the common guassian "bell" curve.
[21:18:27] <+TallTim>gaussian even.
[21:19:24] <+TallTim>Seems like I'll know if we cross in about... 11 minutes.
[21:19:45] ChanServ sets mode +v merx
[21:19:56] <catcowllama>fascinating.  thanks talltim
[21:20:02] <bbrox_>I always thought it is scientifially proven that market prices are not predictable
[21:20:10] <catcowllama>p.s. my girlfriend thinks your nickname is awesome...haha
[21:20:37] <+TallTim>The Hurst exponent proves that there are elements being propogated forward. It was originally used to model hydrological data on river flows.
[21:20:53] <+TallTim>Random data doesn't do that - it would have a result of 0.5
[21:21:13] <+TallTim>If a data series has persistent qualities - then there is structure
[21:21:26] <+TallTim>thanks catcowllama
[21:21:28] <+TallTim>hah
[21:22:28] <+TallTim>You could take price data and calculate it yourself in a spreadsheet. The manipulations aren't too esoteric.
[21:22:43] <+TallTim>You'd nead at least... 100 or more data points to do it.
[21:22:46] <+TallTim>need even.
[21:22:47] <catcowllama>TallTim: so interesting, especially because i'm into hydrogeology as an environmental engineer...never studied the hurst exponent though
[21:23:01] <+TallTim>You should, he used it for constructing dams on the Nile
[21:23:12] <+TallTim>Flood control that is
[21:23:16] <catcowllama>yea i read the wiki article when you mentioned it a couple weeks ago
[21:23:54] <xiando>sly_: what study gives you those arrows in the chart?
[21:24:02] <deadweasel>;;ticker
[21:24:02] <gribble>BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 123.86361, Best ask: 123.99990, Bid-ask spread: 0.13629, Last trade: 123.86361, 24 hour volume: 83555.28483712, 24 hour low: 110.00000, 24 hour high: 126.00000, 24 hour vwap: 120.33823
[21:24:16] <bitme>TallTim: let me know when your subcription is active or update it in gribbling your username :)
[21:24:39] <+TallTim>Sure, I want to watch how it works on smaller timeframes before doing that, but I'll let you guys know.
[21:26:13] <alex12>btce / mtgox api down?
[21:27:28] <xiando>goxapi seems to be working just fine
[21:27:44] <+zzorn>clarkmoody streaming ok
[21:27:44] <neofutur>http://data.mtgox.com/api/2/BTCUSD/money/ticker_fast
[21:28:22] <alex12>getting 503 Service Temporarily Unavailable from mtgox.com now
[21:29:29] <xiando>sly_: how do I get those arrows?
[21:30:42] <xiando>is that a study or photoshop?
[21:30:49] <+TallTim>We crossed, looking for short-term buying.
[21:30:59] <+TallTim>(magnitude unknown)
[21:33:13] <neofutur>21:32 < xempew> excellent, down to 6k from 20k position in verification queue
[21:33:21] <neofutur>could be a good news
[21:33:24] <+TallTim>heh
[21:34:04] <bbrox_>TallTim but you cant buy yourself or anyone here it would influence the data of your observation
[21:34:14] bbrox_ is now known as bbrox
[21:34:26] <+TallTim>It isn't a cat in a box, you know :)
[21:34:37] <bbrox>thats what I was implying..
[21:35:00] <+TallTim>Though I do think some similarity applies when magnitude is involved. I can know one state, but not the other.
[21:35:16] <+TallTim>Like the heisenburg principle
[21:35:23] <quirx>....
[21:35:44] <xiando>heh TallTim will be right most of the time when half the channel reacts to his advice at about the same time. :)
[21:36:11] <bbrox>Well it is a non-quantum-theory believer who once said "God doesn't play dice"..
[21:36:26] <+TallTim>Yeah, but he didn't know about chaos theory either
[21:36:32] <quirx>"(except on the trading floor)"
[21:36:34] <+TallTim>well, refused to acknowledge it
[21:36:46] <+TallTim>Because its scary and messy.
[21:37:00] <+TallTim>ah, a slight pop
[21:37:03] <+zzorn>Well look at that
[21:37:11] <+TallTim>interesting
[21:37:16] <+zzorn>xiando: There's that :P
[21:37:24] <bbrox>You might as well just eneterd a market buy order about 500btc yourself.. :)
[21:37:34] <+TallTim>I assure you I haven't.
[21:37:37] <+TallTim>I don't use gox.
[21:37:41] <bbrox>Ok I believe you..
[21:37:49] <+TallTim>Also, I don't front-run just to make things 'move'
[21:38:29] <quirx>i'm sure long term we get more if the price stayed constant for a while
[21:38:41] <quirx>then it will get interesting for "normal" traders
[21:39:06] <z0r0>let the volume RISEEEE
[21:39:10] <quirx>wild +-100% swings wont exactly create trust..
[21:39:56] <bbrox>TallTim how do you measure "mini bull move", in volume or price?
[21:40:10] <+TallTim>I'm just using my indicators and price
[21:40:13] <+TallTim>I don't use volume.
[21:40:29] <bbrox>Do you look at spread?
[21:40:33] <+TallTim>I bet volume has a hurst exponent of 0.5... but I haven't checked
[21:40:40] <bitme>TallTim: again, my nick starts with a b and I am available to be your protege, just think about it ;)
[21:40:51] <+TallTim>hello bitme
[21:40:59] <catcowllama>a good initial target is 127
[21:41:10] <+TallTim>I don't look at the spread really - unless I'm placing an order
[21:42:12] <Xexe>is this the main channel for traders? who's daytrading?
[21:42:27] <catcowllama>this movement looks a lot stronger than any of the other attemps to push past 124 in the previous 12 hours
[21:42:32] <bitme>I have no experience in Hurst exponents, trading, etc. but I have much experience elsewhere and I learn very quickly, so I'm a great dummy to teach as I'd be your student for a long time and have the funds to test your work
[21:42:44] <catcowllama>also interesting, the crash happened 24 hours ago
[21:42:51] <bbrox>me
[21:42:53] <bitme>My 2BTC's on the matter :)
[21:43:10] <catcowllama>24 hours, 20 minutes ago about
[21:43:32] <+TallTim>It would be nice if we stayed in the bull area. I could test some other things.
[21:43:52] <catcowllama>*stronger than any movement pushing past 124 in the last 24 hours, rather
[21:43:56] <z0r0>25
[21:43:56] <+TallTim>bitme - I share in this channel, so you can learn while I do :)
[21:44:06] <z0r0>125*
[21:44:07] <+zzorn>2k buy.  Bulls getting eager
[21:44:13] <bitme>I do :) Just pressuring you to feed me
[21:44:14] <acasey07>125 bout to pop
[21:44:53] <z0r0>;;goxlag
[21:44:53] <gribble>MtGox lag is 2.363575 seconds. During this time, light travels 0.0047365778361 AU. You could have sent a bitcoin from Jupiter to its third largest moon, Io (0.002819 AU).
[21:45:11] <+TallTim>My 30 minute bar closes in 15 minutes, should give me some kind of indication...
[21:45:24] <z0r0>wow, huge buys
[21:45:55] <z0r0>;;goxlag
[21:45:56] <gribble>MtGox lag is 1.006229 seconds. During this time, light travels 0.0020164716497 AU. You could have sent a bitcoin across the outer diameter of Saturn's rings (0.0024 AU).
[21:46:20] <ukru>looks like someone's trying to jump start it
[21:46:39] <z0r0>126
[21:46:41] <bbrox>TallTim you said we are in (un-?)condirmed bear territory in your blog...
[21:46:47] <catcowllama>126 sell wall almost gone
[21:46:48] <+TallTim>On the daily- yes
[21:46:58] <+TallTim>I'm looking at the intraday now.
[21:47:01] <+zzorn>126 wall down
[21:47:15] <z0r0>next target, 128
[21:47:27] <+TallTim>As you already know - you can have mini-moves within the context of larger trends.
[21:47:43] <M4rtIRC>gogogogogo
[21:48:31] <z0r0>SUPRISE!
[21:48:35] <z0r0>tim is always right.
[21:48:38] <z0r0>=P
[21:48:40] <+TallTim>Not always
[21:48:45] <+TallTim>Just close enough to count.
[21:48:55] <catcowllama>;;asks 127
[21:48:55] <zinodaur>whats up with the increase ?
[21:48:57] <z0r0>shhhh you're always right..
[21:48:57] <gribble>There are currently 1041.9326 bitcoins offered at or under 127.0 USD, worth 132111.649834 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0027 seconds
[21:48:57] <catcowllama>;;bids 126
[21:48:58] <gribble>There are currently 194.69113 bitcoins demanded at or over 126.0 USD, worth 24531.0825858 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.3957 seconds
[21:49:04] <zinodaur>speculators ahoy ?
[21:49:09] <bitme>TallTim: what do you see us testing here in this mini intraday rally?
[21:49:27] <+TallTim>Well, that falls under the 'guess' part - so bear that in mind...
[21:49:27] <zinodaur>;;next
[21:49:27] <gribble>\*AWAY UNTIL April 28\*  resistance: 132, 136, 138-140 | support: 120, 115, 110, 100, 90 | lower buy targets: 102, 96-100, 86 | updated by OneFixt at Apr 21 2013, 18:00 UTC ( tips: http://bit.ly/YnxUM4 ) | disclaimer: http://bit.ly/129bYJ6 | this is not investment or trading advice | #bitcoin-analysis | 1 day, 1 hour, 49 minutes, and 25 seconds ago
[21:49:34] <+stamit>another astronomical estimate for comparison is the amount of money stamit will lose in said amount of time
[21:49:36] <+TallTim>I think we'll be lucky to go past 127
[21:49:36] <neofutur>;;ticker
[21:49:37] <gribble>BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 126.42002, Best ask: 126.58000, Bid-ask spread: 0.15998, Last trade: 126.42001, 24 hour volume: 66939.94696509, 24 hour low: 115.20000, 24 hour high: 126.60000, 24 hour vwap: 122.12721
[21:49:39] <+TallTim>as a first guess
[21:50:39] <+stamit>TallTim: yeah, resistance is at these levels
[21:51:19] <bbrox>1.5 btc spread
[21:51:21] <+TallTim>I'm trying to determine to use it for short scalps or not.
[21:51:28] <+TallTim>because that would've been nice just then.
[21:52:30] <nicobn>what do you guys mean by "resistance" ?
[21:52:56] <+TallTim>nicobn: Usually meant to indicate price will have trouble exceeding a given area
[21:53:00] <Wxll>"resistance" is the place in the chart where if price hits it from below it bounces off downwards
[21:53:06] <+TallTim>or that :)
[21:53:15] <nicobn>ok
[21:53:22] <+TallTim>Makes more sense when you look at the order depth chart
[21:53:26] <M4rtIRC>;;next
[21:53:26] <gribble>\*AWAY UNTIL April 28\*  resistance: 132, 136, 138-140 | support: 120, 115, 110, 100, 90 | lower buy targets: 102, 96-100, 86 | updated by OneFixt at Apr 21 2013, 18:00 UTC ( tips: http://bit.ly/YnxUM4 ) | disclaimer: http://bit.ly/129bYJ6 | this is not investment or trading advice | #bitcoin-analysis | 1 day, 1 hour, 53 minutes, and 24 seconds ago
[21:53:47] <+TallTim>Hmm my 'gut' is saying we just fade... but I'll hang in there...
[21:53:48] <bbrox>well I see a failed attempt to go back in the mini upwards trend channel and see this as yet another top being made and capitulation of the bulls.
[21:53:57] <Wxll>like the $125~$130 area is a clear distance area and it falls together with the €100 level too so the psychological 3 digits in the euro price and the $130 level for the USD price charts
[21:53:58] <+TallTim>yeah... I could see that.
[21:54:56] <neofutur>seeing http://gw.gd/bc18d , i think when you speak of bitcoin, medium term means "less than one month"
[21:55:21] <neofutur>18days graph
[21:55:26] <Wxll>neofutur: nice charts
[21:55:46] <+TallTim>Heh
[21:55:54] <neofutur>shortlink to bitcoincharts with long urls and many chart parameters
[21:56:22] <Wxll>_dhu_ i got that one :-) never looked into it that deep, i need to relook… Thanks neofutur
[21:56:28] <neofutur>eliminating the peak to 250 and to rally to 130
[21:56:53] <+TallTim>By the way, the only anti-persistent data series is Volatility. It tends to reverse direction of the prior move. It has a Hurst exponent below 0.5 :)
[21:56:56] <neofutur>on this chart I see a regular up around 130 140
[21:56:57] <Wxll>basically we're in a BBsqueeze
[21:57:10] <neofutur>to 160
[21:57:11] <gribble>There are currently 354.48917 bitcoins offered at or under 126.0 USD, worth 44456.7723095 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0030 seconds
[21:57:12] <bbrox>everyone read OPERATION SHOCK AND AWE yet?
[21:57:22] <neofutur>bbrox: looks likea fake
[21:57:23] <+TallTim>Yes, operation CUT-N-PASTE
[21:57:29] <+TallTim>sillyness
[21:57:30] <alex12>neofutur, thanks for the link, hacking it up now : )
[21:57:31] <M4rtIRC>fake imo
[21:57:32] <Wxll>no bbrox haven't whats about ?
[21:57:33] <neofutur>stop believing fakes and FUD ( TM )
[21:57:40] <bbrox>http://pastebin.com/QAPxhEbP
[21:57:57] <+TallTim>It should've happened already - so... its moot anyway.
[21:57:58] <darkip>waohh
[21:58:00] <neofutur>alex12: yeah just changing r= you can change the timelenght
[21:58:08] <neofutur>same for other parameters
[21:58:20] <alex12>neofutur, yeap, already on iy.
[21:58:21] <alex12>ity
[21:58:23] <alex12>it!
[21:58:44] <neofutur>alex12: http://gw.gd/bczoom http://gw.gd/bczoom15m http://gw.gd/bczoom30m
[21:58:49] <+TallTim>Although I don't use those indicators, that is pretty cool neofuture
[21:58:54] <neofutur>are also some of mypreferred settings
[21:59:09] <+zzorn>Almost like art
[21:59:15] <neofutur>RSI and MACD are vital and well known
[21:59:22] <bbrox>quantcast visualised bitcoin userbase - https://www.quantcast.com/inside-quantcast/2013/04/who-uses-bitcoins/
[21:59:24] <neofutur>and the important ones ;)
[21:59:30] <+TallTim>I'm less excited by RSI and MACD.
[21:59:34] <Wxll>thanks bbrox
[21:59:38] <+TallTim>Studied those for a while in the beginning.
[21:59:56] <neofutur>TallTim: the green divergence is very useful for me
[22:00:05] <neofutur>for "when to rebuy after a down"
[22:00:06] <+TallTim>If it works for you, I get it.
[22:00:09] <+TallTim>Sure.
[22:00:11] <neofutur>or the other way
[22:00:21] <bbrox>nice to see my uni in the tag cloud :)
[22:00:57] <+TallTim>hmm, we seem to be fading a bit - I'd recommend caution now.
[22:01:10] <+TallTim>Could recross for lower action.
[22:01:42] <bbrox>I still believe in a drop to $50. I believe!
[22:01:48] <+TallTim>haha dang
[22:01:51] <quirx>trololol
[22:02:02] <quirx>whoever tried to start the race just lost their money
[22:02:29] <neofutur>bbrox: I wouldnt even try to believe that :p unless sonmehting real big happens
[22:02:48] <alex12>hopefully another country goes bust
[22:02:51] <Wxll>bbrox: What I still amazed by is that we actually sticked on $100 ~$120  Looking at Amazon some years a go when that one "crashed" it slammed down to $7 however BTC just keeps on just around $100
[22:02:56] <neofutur>even 80 is hard to believe imho
[22:03:13] <neofutur>100-120 . . . perhaps
[22:03:22] <quirx>http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin^^
[22:03:29] <quirx>without the^^...
[22:03:35] <Wxll>I got my orders ready on $50 for sure :-)
[22:03:41] <+TallTim>too late quirx, I broke google
[22:03:47] <bbrox>neofutur: stock market bubble could burst...
[22:03:52] <quirx>wat. google is broke?
[22:03:56] <+TallTim>kidding.
[22:04:12] <bbrox>Wxll exactly I also think bitcoins trades like a new economy stock
[22:04:34] <+TallTim>I think its a cross between a commodity and a currency.
[22:04:39] Wxll nods
[22:04:41] <+TallTim>That is why its confusing people
[22:04:42] <neofutur>to see it well you need http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2011%2029m&cmpt=q
[22:04:44] <bbrox>and a internet stock
[22:04:45] <neofutur>seriously
[22:05:05] <neofutur>quirx: ¡¡
[22:05:15] <+TallTim>merx, it may be fading so I'd be cautious.
[22:05:19] <Wxll>TallTim: exactly with an apple stock you can't buy anything its just there on you bookshelf… with BTC you can actually do buy sorting too… its a different material
[22:05:23] <+numismatics>looks like operation shock&awe failed
[22:05:34] <+numismatics>Wxll: that's not true
[22:05:35] <bbrox>neofutur so trend is to zero, what does it tell you?
[22:05:35] <neofutur>numismatics: just one more fake and fud
[22:05:44] <debork>im disappointed shock 'n awe didnt happen
[22:05:45] <+TallTim>I'll let you know if it crosses into min-bear territory
[22:05:53] <neofutur>bbrox: i dont mean its bad , we still hit a high a few days ago
[22:05:58] <+TallTim>in about... 24 minutes