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- What business will be relevant in 15 Years from now.
- In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
- Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they got bankrupt.
- What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 year - and most people don't see it coming.
- Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?
- Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975.
- The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law.
- So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superiour and got mainstream in only a few short years.
- It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
- Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
- Welcome to the Exponential Age.
- Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
- Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.
- Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
- Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.
- This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
- In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs.
- Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
- So if you study law, stop immediately.
- There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
- Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses.
- Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.
- In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
- Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public.
- Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted.
- You don't want to own a car anymore.
- You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.
- You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving.
- Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.
- It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that.
- We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.
- We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km.
- That will save a million lifes each year.
- Most car companies might become bankrupt.
- Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
- I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.
- Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper.
- Their car insurance business model will disappear.
- Real estate will change.
- Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
- Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020.
- Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric.
- Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact.
- Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
- The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
- With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.
- Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter.
- We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water.
- Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
- Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year.
- There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with you phone, which takes your retina scan, you blood sample and you breath into it.
- It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.
- It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
- 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from 18,000$ to 400$ within 10 years.
- In the same time, it became 100 times faster.
- All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes.
- Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.
- The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
- At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning possibilities.
- You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
- In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building.
- By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
- Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
- If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.
- And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.
- Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years.
- There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
- Agriculture: There will be a 100$ agricultural robot in the future.
- Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields.
- Aeroponics will need much less water.
- The first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018.
- Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows.
- Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.
- There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly.
- It contains more protein than meat.
- It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
- There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are.
- Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying.
- Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
- Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.
- Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year.
- Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years.
- The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year.
- So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
- Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at 10$ in Africa and Asia.
- Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone.
- That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
- Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries.
- We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential.
- We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.......
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