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538 final predictions (incl. ME and NE breakdown)

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Nov 8th, 2016
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  1. AK :
  2. Trump: 48.32084% vote share, 76.40% win prob
  3. Clinton: 40.87356% vote share, 23.54% win prob
  4. AL :
  5. Trump: 58.17918% vote share, 99.93% win prob
  6. Clinton: 35.83019% vote share, 00.07% win prob
  7. AR :
  8. Trump: 56.96626% vote share, 99.62% win prob
  9. Clinton: 36.29233% vote share, 00.37% win prob
  10. AZ :
  11. Trump: 47.60696% vote share, 66.58% win prob
  12. Clinton: 45.38638% vote share, 33.41% win prob
  13. CA :
  14. Trump: 35.52779% vote share, 00.04% win prob
  15. Clinton: 58.45205% vote share, 99.95% win prob
  16. CO :
  17. Trump: 43.62856% vote share, 22.45% win prob
  18. Clinton: 47.67816% vote share, 77.53% win prob
  19. CT :
  20. Trump: 40.16638% vote share, 02.71% win prob
  21. Clinton: 52.83242% vote share, 97.28% win prob
  22. DE :
  23. Trump: 40.38113% vote share, 08.54% win prob
  24. Clinton: 52.85846% vote share, 91.46% win prob
  25. FL :
  26. Trump: 47.46051% vote share, 44.91% win prob
  27. Clinton: 48.11794% vote share, 55.08% win prob
  28. GA :
  29. Trump: 49.53388% vote share, 79.08% win prob
  30. Clinton: 45.51072% vote share, 20.91% win prob
  31. HI :
  32. Trump: 34.10622% vote share, 01.13% win prob
  33. Clinton: 57.85536% vote share, 98.87% win prob
  34. IA :
  35. Trump: 47.97918% vote share, 69.77% win prob
  36. Clinton: 45.07723% vote share, 30.21% win prob
  37. ID :
  38. Trump: 55.50050% vote share, 99.05% win prob
  39. Clinton: 35.92774% vote share, 00.94% win prob
  40. IL :
  41. Trump: 40.67696% vote share, 01.71% win prob
  42. Clinton: 53.62693% vote share, 98.29% win prob
  43. IN :
  44. Trump: 51.97892% vote share, 97.47% win prob
  45. Clinton: 40.41080% vote share, 02.52% win prob
  46. KS :
  47. Trump: 51.53914% vote share, 97.29% win prob
  48. Clinton: 39.00532% vote share, 02.69% win prob
  49. KY :
  50. Trump: 56.08235% vote share, 99.61% win prob
  51. Clinton: 37.88644% vote share, 00.39% win prob
  52. LA :
  53. Trump: 55.54961% vote share, 99.46% win prob
  54. Clinton: 39.40200% vote share, 00.54% win prob
  55. MA :
  56. Trump: 34.60018% vote share, 00.08% win prob
  57. Clinton: 57.98075% vote share, 99.91% win prob
  58. MD :
  59. Trump: 34.14972% vote share, 00.03% win prob
  60. Clinton: 59.83384% vote share, 99.96% win prob
  61. ME :
  62. Trump: 42.04337% vote share, 17.34% win prob
  63. Clinton: 49.47904% vote share, 82.63% win prob
  64. ME1 :
  65. Trump: 39.09728% vote share, 08.45% win prob
  66. Clinton: 52.95895% vote share, 91.53% win prob
  67. ME2 :
  68. Trump: 45.28049% vote share, 49.03% win prob
  69. Clinton: 45.64745% vote share, 50.93% win prob
  70. MI :
  71. Trump: 44.19136% vote share, 21.09% win prob
  72. Clinton: 48.37770% vote share, 78.90% win prob
  73. MN :
  74. Trump: 43.14677% vote share, 14.95% win prob
  75. Clinton: 48.93555% vote share, 85.04% win prob
  76. MO :
  77. Trump: 51.44466% vote share, 96.12% win prob
  78. Clinton: 41.37880% vote share, 03.88% win prob
  79. MS :
  80. Trump: 54.45816% vote share, 97.81% win prob
  81. Clinton: 41.39882% vote share, 02.19% win prob
  82. MT :
  83. Trump: 52.07240% vote share, 95.86% win prob
  84. Clinton: 37.08315% vote share, 04.10% win prob
  85. NC :
  86. Trump: 47.50283% vote share, 44.48% win prob
  87. Clinton: 48.18854% vote share, 55.52% win prob
  88. ND :
  89. Trump: 57.16013% vote share, 97.69% win prob
  90. Clinton: 34.07969% vote share, 02.30% win prob
  91. NE :
  92. Trump: 54.35692% vote share, 97.67% win prob
  93. Clinton: 36.53121% vote share, 02.31% win prob
  94. NE1 :
  95. Trump: 52.95132% vote share, 89.32% win prob
  96. Clinton: 37.46636% vote share, 10.66% win prob
  97. NE2 :
  98. Trump: 47.25186% vote share, 55.79% win prob
  99. Clinton: 45.48741% vote share, 44.19% win prob
  100. NE3 :
  101. Trump: 62.79039% vote share, 99.17% win prob
  102. Clinton: 26.67341% vote share, 00.81% win prob
  103. NH :
  104. Trump: 43.92591% vote share, 30.24% win prob
  105. Clinton: 47.50506% vote share, 69.75% win prob
  106. NJ :
  107. Trump: 41.98124% vote share, 03.11% win prob
  108. Clinton: 53.50215% vote share, 96.89% win prob
  109. NM :
  110. Trump: 39.87109% vote share, 17.20% win prob
  111. Clinton: 45.65428% vote share, 82.57% win prob
  112. NV :
  113. Trump: 45.88834% vote share, 41.73% win prob
  114. Clinton: 47.06956% vote share, 58.27% win prob
  115. NY :
  116. Trump: 37.76130% vote share, 00.22% win prob
  117. Clinton: 56.77995% vote share, 99.78% win prob
  118. OH :
  119. Trump: 47.65876% vote share, 64.59% win prob
  120. Clinton: 45.78414% vote share, 35.39% win prob
  121. OK :
  122. Trump: 59.16284% vote share, 99.95% win prob
  123. Clinton: 33.20357% vote share, 00.04% win prob
  124. OR :
  125. Trump: 41.77312% vote share, 06.30% win prob
  126. Clinton: 50.92733% vote share, 93.69% win prob
  127. PA :
  128. Trump: 45.23409% vote share, 22.95% win prob
  129. Clinton: 48.93459% vote share, 77.05% win prob
  130. RI :
  131. Trump: 39.56375% vote share, 06.79% win prob
  132. Clinton: 53.97367% vote share, 93.20% win prob
  133. SC :
  134. Trump: 50.79250% vote share, 89.74% win prob
  135. Clinton: 43.83046% vote share, 10.25% win prob
  136. SD :
  137. Trump: 52.98920% vote share, 93.86% win prob
  138. Clinton: 37.48422% vote share, 06.11% win prob
  139. TN :
  140. Trump: 53.09438% vote share, 97.34% win prob
  141. Clinton: 41.13668% vote share, 02.66% win prob
  142. TX :
  143. Trump: 51.03875% vote share, 93.95% win prob
  144. Clinton: 42.47507% vote share, 06.04% win prob
  145. UT :
  146. Trump: 37.28674% vote share, 83.17% win prob
  147. Clinton: 26.74410% vote share, 03.31% win prob
  148. VA :
  149. Trump: 44.28180% vote share, 14.49% win prob
  150. Clinton: 49.84831% vote share, 85.50% win prob
  151. VT :
  152. Trump: 32.76051% vote share, 01.93% win prob
  153. Clinton: 60.21048% vote share, 98.06% win prob
  154. WA :
  155. Trump: 39.92418% vote share, 01.64% win prob
  156. Clinton: 53.21793% vote share, 98.36% win prob
  157. WI :
  158. Trump: 44.26560% vote share, 16.46% win prob
  159. Clinton: 49.59468% vote share, 83.53% win prob
  160. WV :
  161. Trump: 59.83099% vote share, 99.72% win prob
  162. Clinton: 33.30486% vote share, 00.27% win prob
  163. WY :
  164. Trump: 62.35849% vote share, 98.92% win prob
  165. Clinton: 27.40339% vote share, 01.06% win prob
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