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  1. The New York Knicks have won 13 straight games to grab hold of the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference behind the Miami Heat, who have a 10-game lead. The Heat's juggernaut status and the Knicks' late surge have combined to spark an inferno of inquiry about the threat level the Knicks pose to the Heat in the postseason:
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  3. Are the Knicks legit? Can the Knicks make some noise? Are the Knicks a threat to the Heat? Are the Knicks a legit threat to make some noise against the Heat?
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  5. In other words, what are the Knicks' chances of beating the Heat? While it might be nice for the Knicks to win a playoff series for the first time in 14 years -- or even two -- all the big questions boil down to this: Can the Knicks beat the Heat in a seven-game series?
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  7. We're not in 2012 anymore
  8. The Knickerbockers sure didn't have much luck last postseason when they snagged only one win against the Heat in the opening round of the playoffs before bowing out in five games. But this Knicks team is much better than that one. And it's a completely different team, as well.
  9. Even though we see some familiar faces -- coach Mike Woodson, Carmelo Anthony, Tyson Chandler and J.R. Smith -- this Knicks team is the polar opposite of last season's team, and it's a bad idea to use last year's playoffs as a guide for a potential matchup this time around. The 2011-12 version of the Knicks ranked fifth-fastest in pace, 19th in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating. This season? Try fifth-slowest in pace, third in offensive rating and 16th in defensive rating. Aside from their slow tempo, the 2012-13 Knicks are basically everything former Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni wanted them to be. In fact, we've never seen a team so dependent on the long ball. A whopping 35.5 percent of the Knicks' field goal attempts come from beyond the arc, which is the largest share in NBA history.
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  11. MOST 3-POINT DEPENDENT TEAMS, NBA HISTORY
  12. Percentage of 3s is the percentage of field goal attempts taken from beyond the arc.
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  14. Team Percentage
  15. 2012-13 Knicks 35.5
  16. 2009-10 Magic 35.0
  17. 2012-13 Rockets 34.9
  18. 2011-12 Magic 34.6
  19. 2008-09 Magic 33.5
  20. And that's great news for Knicks fans because if you're drawing up a blueprint to slay a giant like the Heat, playing slow (which means fewer possessions back and forth) and firing up 3s is the way to go. Those who have played pickup basketball against a much better team know exactly what I'm talking about. Underdogs at the local YMCA want to play 1s and 2s, first team to seven points, right? That's because the longer a game goes, the more likely the better team wins -- and the less likely a high-variance strategy (shooting from beyond the arc) will work out for the underdog.
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  22. Same thing goes for the Knicks against the Heat. Of course, this isn't the YMCA, and the Knicks can't play "first team to seven points," but they do employ a style that effectively shortens the game. The 'Bockers average only 92.1 possessions per game. During the 13-game win streak, the team's tempo has slowed to a crawl -- to 89.1 possessions per game, which would easily rank last in the NBA if it lasted a whole season.
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  24. And fewer possessions for the Knicks also mean fewer opportunities for LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh to assert their talent advantage. That's true even though Miami should benefit more than any other team from a tightened playoff rotation (as my colleague Bradford Doolittle pointed out recently).
  25.  
  26. Fire away
  27. Another way to minimize the star power edge? Shoot a bunch of 3s. The Knicks have won three of their four matchups against the Heat this season and have averaged a staggering 34 3-point attempts in those games, their most against any East team this season.
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  29. In fact, the Knicks are 15-2 this season when they reach that 34 mark in 3-point attempts. Keep in mind, we're not even looking at whether they made them or not.
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  31. While this Knicks team is different from last season's, the Heat do have some experience in turning up their 3-point defense against the Knicks in the postseason. Last year, the Heat limited New York's ability to beat them from outside.
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  33. In particular, they focused on Steve Novak. Do you remember Novak in the playoffs last season, after he was the NBA's top 3-point shooter in 2011-12? You probably don't because the Heat smothered him, limiting "Novakaine" to just seven 3-point attempts during the five-game series (he made four). That's after Novak averaged 5.2 attempts from long range per game last regular season, meaning that Novak shot 19 fewer 3s than usual against the Heat's dominating defense.
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  35. Can Tyson come out and play?
  36. Of course, this entire discussion is pointless if the Knicks don't have Tyson Chandler, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, for their playoff run. Chandler has missed seven of the Knicks' past 11 games with a bulging disc in his neck. They've shown they can get by without their big man in the regular season, but teams will be able to exploit his absence with the extra preparation and scouting that comes in the playoffs.
  37. The Knicks are somewhat comparable to the 2008-09 Orlando Magic team that reached the Finals while showing a similar dependency on 3-pointers. But that team also came equipped with Dwight Howard and the best defense in the land. Good luck replicating their success without a fully healthy Chandler. In that case, the Knicks would need a 4-point line to go that deep in the postseason.
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  39. The bottom line: Given the Knicks' quick ball movement, slow pace and increased 3-point reliance, they have a much better chance to steal more than just one game against the Heat and even push Miami to a Game 7.
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  41. But beating the Heat in the Eastern Conference finals? That's still highly unlikely. That's assuming the Knicks survive long enough to get there.
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