Chat with Wirr and Froz

(1:23:54 PM) Froz: Hrm.
(1:24:00 PM) Will: hrm?
(1:24:03 PM) Froz: Taking out Ton was a very smart thing to do for the wolf.
(1:24:10 PM) Will: Ton's dead?
(1:24:15 PM) Will: shit, I haven't checked the thread yet
(1:24:16 PM) Froz: Yes, yes he is.
(1:24:25 PM) Will: hang on
(1:24:49 PM) Will: Hm
(1:25:21 PM) Will: I would have expected one of the two of us to be attacked
(1:25:24 PM) Will: or zeph
(1:25:39 PM) Froz: See, that's what I was expecting too.
(1:25:42 PM) Will: WEll
(1:25:46 PM) Will: I'm not a wolf. Are YOU?
(1:25:49 PM) Froz: However.
(1:26:03 PM) Froz: That Ton was attacked means the wolf knew we were using him.
(1:26:11 PM) Froz: Makes it one of us. Possibly Zeph.
(1:26:17 PM) Froz: Who else is smart enough to do that?
(1:26:24 PM) Will: Remind me again what we were doing with Ton
(1:26:38 PM) Froz: Abusing his honesty policy. :P
(1:26:45 PM) Will: oh right
(1:26:51 PM) Will: xD
(1:26:56 PM) Will: I hadn't even spoken to him this game
(1:26:57 PM) Froz: He makes the best villager because of that.
(1:27:25 PM) Will: We're ruling out target of opportunity then
(1:27:33 PM) Froz: I think so.
(1:27:37 PM) Froz: I think it was deliberate.
(1:27:49 PM) Will: Do SKs get revenge kills this round?
(1:27:58 PM) Will: Or can we rule out that he attacked an SK?
(1:28:08 PM) Froz: Cause of death was mauling.
(1:28:17 PM) Will: So it was
(1:28:21 PM) Will: L2Read
(1:28:48 PM) Will: What other possibilities can we explore?
(1:29:28 PM) Froz: That the wolf was taking a shot in the dark, but as explained I don't think that's the case.
(1:29:34 PM) Will: Agreed
(1:29:36 PM) Froz: Because it would've been one of us that ate it.
(1:29:37 PM) Froz: Not Ton.
(1:29:47 PM) Will: Which means he was deliberately targeted
(1:29:52 PM) Froz: Right.
(1:30:26 PM) Will: Let's forgo for the moment the possibillity that the wolf is one of the three of us. What reason would the wolves have for attacking Ton and not you or I?
(1:31:13 PM) Froz: None that I can determine, other than the whole honesty policy thing. Ton hasn't really even said anything for the past two games.
(1:31:41 PM) Froz: And it's night one.
(1:31:45 PM) Will: That would require one of the villagers, then, to have both picked up on Ton's honesty policy, and be clever enough to know that we'd use it to our advantage
(1:31:57 PM) Froz: The woodsman would be a smart target by role but the wolf has no way of knowing that.
(1:32:03 PM) Froz: Not night 1.
(1:32:26 PM) Will: Not without a sympathetic oracle, anyway, and I think we can rule out an oracle in this round after the trainwreck of last time
(1:32:43 PM) Froz: It's a possibility but I'd call it a remote one.
(1:34:05 PM) Froz: I have mentioned in passing to Hitman that I rely on Ton a lot. Indirectly though, not to the point that I'd say he keyed in on it.
(1:34:29 PM) Froz: Going down the list excluding us and Zeph, I don't think Nickel's that smart.
(1:34:40 PM) Froz: Joel... probably would've directly went for one of us.
(1:34:51 PM) Froz: WQ no idea.
(1:35:28 PM) Froz: And melee I know very little about despite him being in a bunch of these games but I'd assume no.
(1:35:40 PM) Will: WQ is clever enough to use that information, but she hasn't had the opportunity to acquire it
(1:35:46 PM) Froz: True.
(1:36:05 PM) Will: She may be part of the pack, or even the alpha, but that still leaves someone else on the list as a wolf
(1:36:31 PM) Will: I'm confident Melee doesn't know about Ton's rule
(1:36:46 PM) Froz: That sounds right.
(1:36:51 PM) Will: Nickel, as you say, is probably not our culprit
(1:37:04 PM) Will: He's more of a pawn than a king
(1:37:12 PM) Will: Easily manipulated, though...
(1:37:29 PM) Will: But again, that would require someone else from the list pulling the strings
(1:37:45 PM) Froz: Right. The role is less important that determining who made the call right now.
(1:37:51 PM) Will: Agreed
(1:38:06 PM) Froz: Even if someone like Nickel was the alpha, removing the brains from the equation will go a long way towards crippling him.
(1:38:20 PM) Will: As for Hitman, I'm not sure whether he knows Ton's rule or not
(1:38:34 PM) Froz: For sure he knows that I've worked with Ton in the past.
(1:38:44 PM) Froz: The rule itself, not sure.
(1:38:55 PM) Will: I've done the same as well, but I'm not sure if he picked up on that
(1:39:40 PM) Will: He's not a perfect fit, but other than the three of us I think he's our best fit
(1:39:56 PM) Will: Now
(1:40:00 PM) Will: Here's the interesting thing
(1:40:03 PM) Froz: Could apply pressure to him to see how he reacts to it.
(1:40:05 PM) Froz: Listening
(1:40:06 PM) Will: that just occured to me
(1:40:24 PM) Will: If Hitman is a wolf
(1:40:40 PM) Will: ...no, wait, that's actually not interesting
(1:40:58 PM) Will: I was about to posit a scenario in which Hitman AND one of the three of us were a wolf, and propose that in that scenario we'd see what just occured
(1:41:11 PM) Will: But I think we're already pretty sure that one of the three of us is a wolf, so that doesn't tell us anything new
(1:41:32 PM) Froz: Not that Hitman would listen to reason anyway. <_<
(1:41:39 PM) Froz: But yeah that sounds about right