average worth of cases
format:
NAME                  COST   AVG WORTH   SCORE (HIGHER IS BETTER)
wep case 1          - 6.87 - 08.13222 - 1.183729257641921
esports 1           - 4.43 - 03.79555 - 0.856783295711060
wep case 2          - 2.89 - 01.51277 - 0.523449826989619
bravo               - 7.43 - 10.10666 - 1.360250336473755
winter              - 3.26 - 04.75461 - 1.458469325153374
epsports winter     - 2.79 - 01.70083 - 0.609616487455197
wep case 3          - 2.81 - 01.07000 - 0.380782918149466
phoenix             - 3.03 - 07.78769 - 2.570194719471947
hunstman            - 2.83 - 04.16400 - 1.471378091872792
breakout            - 2.95 - 04.48642 - 1.520820338983051
esports 2014 summer - 2.74 - 02.41294 - 0.880635036496350
vaguard             - 2.79 - 03.67785 - 1.318225806451613

average chance according to covars
total cases opened - 3,597,356
blue   - 2854728 - 0.7935628278102028 - 79.3562827810202%
purple - 869335  - 0.2416594298701602 - 24.1659429870160%
pink   - 198162  - 0.0550854572080161 - 05.5085457208016%
red    - 45739   - 0.0127146159568305 - 01.2714615956830%
yellow - 4733    - 0.0013156885223481 - 0.13156885223481%

average chance according to my research
Total drops counted: 396
Blues: 333
Purples: 44
Pinks: 12
Reds: 3
Knives: 4
Blues Percent: 0.84
Purples Percent: 0.11
Pinks Percent: 0.03
Reds Percent: 0.01
Knives Percent: 0.01