2nd Year R Project

#Question 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------

attach(results)
summary(X)
summary(Fav.Odds)

#Mean of both
#X: 4.257 Fav.Odds: 6.72
For<- 6.72
Against<- 4.257
print(Against/Against)
print(For/Against)

#4.257 / 4.257 = 1
#6.72 / 4.257 = 1.578576462
#1.578576462 : 1
#2 : 1
# odds rounded up are 2:1 when in reality they are more close to 3:1 as
# we have 192 losses to 108 wins



#Question 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------

Summary(results)
Wins <- 108
Losses <- 192
TotalRaces <- 300
ProbOfFav <- Wins/TotalRaces
print(ProbOfFav)

#108/300 = 0.36
#36% probability of the favourite winning


#Question 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------

#1- P(win / %Odds ) = answer for question 3, bookies gain
#P(win) = win / total races = 108/300 = 0.36
#%odds = ( for/ for + against ) = ( 1 / 2+ 1) = (1/3) = 0.33

probwin <- 0.36
print(probwin)
percentodds <- 0.33
formula <- probwin / percentodds
print(formula)
#[1] 1.090909

answer<- 1 - formula
print(answer)

#the bookies are making a 9% loss or a €0.09 loss on every €1 bet



# Question 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------

bet<- 1
loss<- 0
wins<- 0
return<- 0

# a for loop that runs through all 300 races and uses the double up betting strategy and records the end profit

for (i in 1:300) {
  if (results$win[i]=="y"){
    wins <- bet - loss
    return <- return + wins
    bet <- 1
    wins <- 0
    loss <- 0
    TRUE
  }
  if (results$win[i]=="n"){
    if (results$place[i]=="n"){
    loss <- bet + loss
    return
    bet <- bet * 2
    FALSE
  }

  else{
    TRUE
  }

  if(i==300){
    return<-return-loss
    TRUE
  }

  FALSE

  }
}
print(return)



# Question 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------

# this for loop determines the total amount of capital we need at the start to get the €1 return

bet<- 0.01
loss<- 0
wins<- 0
return<- 0
capital<-0

for (i in 1:300) {

  if (results$win[i]=="y"){
    wins <- bet - loss
    return <- return + wins
    bet <- 0.01
    wins <- 0
    loss <- 0
    TRUE
  }

  if (results$win[i]=="n"){
    if (results$place[i]=="n"){
      loss <- bet + loss
      bet <- bet * 2
      FALSE
    }

    if(i==300){
      return<-return-loss
      capital<-capital*2
      TRUE
    }

    FALSE
  }

}

print(capital)