Lack of Co-Main Finishes - UFC

Since the UFC assigned the five-round treatment to all main events leading up to UFC 138 in November of 2011, I along with many others have perceived a rise in main event finishing percentage. I decided to take a dive into the numbers and see if our perceptions are, indeed, reality, and to see if there were any other interesting patterns in fight card results.

THE FACTS

- From UFC 37.5 to UFC on FX 3, the UFC held 85 non-title fights as main events originally scheduled for THREE rounds. Of those 85
  fights, 49% of them ended with a finish.
- From UFC 138, the first non-title main event ever scheduled for five rounds, to the end of June 2015, the UFC held 77 non-title
  fights as main events originally scheduled for FIVE rounds. Of those 77 fights, 75% of them ended with a finish.* (See notes
  at bottom)
- The finishing rate in non-title main events is 53% higher when given the five-round treatment.
- From UFC 28 to the end of June 2015, the UFC has scheduled 161 five-round title fights. Of those 161 bouts, 65% of them ended
  with a finish, 13% less non-title fights also scheduled for five rounds.

Now, let's take a look at just how often we see finishes throughout a typical card from January 2013 through June 2015:

Card Placement	    Fights	  Finishes	Finishing %
(start to end)
      13              10              7             70%
      12              44             24             55%
      11              81             37             46%
      10              94             47             50%
       9              97	     38             39%
       8              100            51             51%
       7              100            47             47%
------------------------------------------------------- Where Fight Nights typically begin their main card
       6              100            48             48%
------------------------------------------------------- Where PPVs typically begin
       5              100            49             49%
       4              100            52             52%
       3              100            62             62%
   Co-ME              93             39             42% -----> this only includes three-round co-main events
      ME              97             68             70% -----> this only includes five-round main events

Typically, main card fights deliver more finishes but just what is going on in the co-main event slot? There's just a 42% finishing rate in three-round co-main events. Note: six of seven co-main title fights ended in finishes. The lack of co-main finishes is even more pronounced on pay-per-view events. Typically, a co-main event on a PPV is made to build your next contender or thrill audiences with a high-action match-up. But, since January of 2013, there have only been SEVEN finishes in twenty-five three-round co-main events on PPVs. And those seven were:
- Dos Santos over Hunt (a +420 underdog)
- Barnett over Mir (a small underdog)
- Evans over Sonnen (a 2-to-1 underdog)
- Cormier over Cummins (a late replacement and +575 underdog)
- Woodley over Condit (an injury TKO)
- Cormier over Henderson (a +305 underdog)
- Gastelum over Ellenberger (a small underdog)

From January of 2015 to June of 2015, the UFC finishing rate is actually way up at 55% and, if it stays on track, will be the highest we've seen since 2009's 56%. But, don't credit co-main events for any of that. There have been just seven finishes in this year's 19 three-round co-main events for a finishing rate of 37%, the LOWEST FINISHING RATE FOR ANY SPOT ON A CARD. Can the five-round treatment be added to co-main event fights? Surely, some of them could be booked for five rounds if not all. The PPV co-main events might really benefit from a change.

*Notes:
- UFC on FX 1, 2, 3 and UFC on FUEL TV 1 and 2 were the only events originally scheduled for three-round main events after UFC 138,
  the first non-title main event to ever be scheduled for five rounds.
- Main events for UFC 153 (Silva/Bonnar), UFC on FUEL TV 9 (Mousasi/Latifi) and UFC 161 (Evans/Henderson) were short-notice fights
  scheduled for three rounds and were left out.
- The main event for the TUF 18 Finale (Diaz/Maynard) was a three-round fight promoted to the main event spot due to injuries and
  was left out.