Description for Idea "EPOCH 3: A 60-Week–Long Bubblecast"

This model has been carefully rendered only to extrapolate the future expansion of Bitcoin as accurately as possible using historical trade action data, (i.e. assuming it were to continue to behave as it has previously). [Total potential lateral error of projection figures: ≅ 378 hours (i.e. 2.25 binned weeks)]

⊕ See the bottom of the description for content added ex post facto.

•The regions detailed in my post "INTRA-BUBBLE LOWS PERIOD … " are represented above using pairs of RED|VERTICALS with an interior span of ├5 WEEKS┤, within which the intra-bubble bottoms (indicated with red adjoining beam) occur, and with no greater than ╟36 WEEKS╢ between any adjacent set of pairs.

•BLUE|VERTICALS, of interior span ├4 WEEKS┤, demarcate the boundary between adjacent 'double-bubble' pairs by partitioning the chart into ╟64 WEEK╢ regions of accelerating exponential growth shown by the GREEN↗DASHED trend lines.

EPOCHS: I find that bubbles occur in pairs, taking place over intervals with exponential lower bounds that spontaneously accelerates in the interim region between one pair and the next, as described above. I call these time periods 'epochs'. The PURPLE|VERTICALS are near where the major pre-bubble acceleration occurs. The last two bubbles took place in Epoch 2, or E[2], thus the next two will occur in Epoch 3, whose trendline E[3] forms the border between the orange and green triangular areas of the projection. Tautologically, bubbles in the same pair have more in common than ones which are not.

•The DOTTED HORIZONTALS: ┈ORANGE┈ and ┈RED┈ indicate the maximum* [open/close] and highest [high] possible, respectively, for each given peak. ┈PURPLE┈ defines post-bottom support by averaging two nearest maxima*.

•TRIANGLES: I've triangulated the double-bubble projection, outlining where possible peaks are likely to occur, using intuitive color-coded regions intended to reflect the range of expected prices/pressures around those times. It is anticipated that all future candles will intersect or lie wholly within these areas. GREEN is a 'safe' channel, of avg. [upward] movement; ORANGE: [mixed] signal; and RED: strongly [downward] pressures. In effect, this amounts to a kind of probability gradient over the possible future price trajectories; red zones being more untenable than orange ones; and orange, less so than green, hence why I didn't simply draw a 'bar pattern'.

※ This description is incomplete yet. Apparently, I have overrun the character limit for the text field. ※

[N.B. Mt. Gox was an active exchange throughout most of the time this empirical information was collected but, of course, is no longer. Consequently, the large-scale structure of the growth paradigm may be altered.]

⊕ [Edit 2 (June 5th 2014): An illustrative example — http://goo.gl/TzKr9Y — using Wolfram|Alpha, showing the current value of the E[3] trendline. By default it will yield the approximate upper bound estimate for the top of the green triangular region (1 week ahead of 'today', thus not always aligning with the binned 'chart week' points). I've also included a "+(0 weeks)" parameter which can be offset to give other values along the line you may wish to estimate. Note, this is an approximation of the line equation itself (on a weekly scale); it is not intended as an estimated high for any given day, merely a helpful guideline for potential future movement.

⊕ [Edit 1 (May 25th 2014): I've discovered a small error. If you examine the candle at 2013-09-29, you will notice the GREEN↗DASHED trend line for E[2] accidentally clipped above the bottom of that candle's low. Although the resultant angular difference at this scale is small, it's enough to constitute a downward correction ≳-4.18% — In the E[2]∩E[3] transition region's price range, this happens to neatly encapsulate any deviated candles and, at the higher range peaks of E[3], would account for a relatively minor price error, so this is largely irrelevant. I'm just being precise.]