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- Testing text / paper abstract
- taken from http://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/ICWSM/ICWSM15/paper/view/10505
- Viral videos have become a staple of the social Web. The
- term refers to videos that are uploaded to video sharing sites
- such as YouTube, Vimeo, or Blip.tv and more or less quickly
- gain the attention of millions of people.
- Viral videos mainly contain humorous content such as
- bloopers in television shows (eg. boom goes the dynamite)
- or quirky Web productions (eg. nyan cat). Others show extraordinary events caught on video (eg. battle at Kruger)
- or contain political messages (eg. kony 2012). The arguably
- most prominent example, however, is the music video Gangnam style
- by PSY which, as of January 2015, has been
- viewed over 2 billion times on YouTube. Yet, while the recent surge in viral videos has been attributed to the availability of affordable digital cameras and video sharing sites
- (Grossman 2006), viral Web videos predate modern social media. An example is the dancing baby which appeared in
- 1996 and was mainly shared via email.
- The fact that videos became Internet phenomena already
- before the first video sharing sites appeared suggests that
- collective attention to viral videos may spread in form of a
- contact process. Put differently, it seems reasonable to surmise that attention to viral videos spreads through the Web
- very much as viruses spread through the world. Indeed, the
- times series shown in Fig. 1 support this intuition. They
- show exemplary developments of YouTube view counts and
- Google searches related to recent viral videos and closely
- resemble the progress of infection counts often observed in
- epidemic outbreaks. However, although viral videos attract
- growing research efforts, the suitability of the viral metaphor
- was apparently not studied systematically yet. In this paper,
- we therefore ask to what extend the dynamics in Fig. 1 can
- be explained in terms of the dynamics of epidemics?
- This question extends existing viral video research which,
- so far, can be distinguished into two broad categories: On
- the one hand, researchers especially in the humanities and
- in marketing, ask for what it is that draws attention to viral
- videos (Burgess 2008; Southgate, Westoby, and Page 2010).
- In a recent study, Shifman (2012) looked at attributes common to viral videos and, based on a corpus of 30 prominent
- examples, identified six predominant features, namely: focus on ordinary people, flawed masculinity, humor, simplicity, repetitiveness, and whimsical content. However, while
- he argues that these attributes mark a video as incomplete
- or flawed and therefore invoke further attention or creative
- dialogue, the presence of these key signifiers does not im-
- ply virality. After all, there are millions of videos that show
- these attributes but never attract significant viewership
- Another popular line of research, especially among data
- scientists, therefore consists in analyzing viewing patterns of
- viral videos. For instance, Figueiredo et al. (2011) found that
- the temporal dynamics of view counts of YouTube videos
- seem to depend on whether or not the material is copyrighted. While copyrighted videos (typically music videos)
- were observed to reach peak popularity early in their lifetime, other viral videos had been available for quite some
- time before they experienced sudden significant bursts in
- popularity. In addition, the authors observed that these bursts
- depended on external factors such as being listed on the
- YouTube front page. The importance of external effects for
- the viral success of a video was also noted by Broxton et al. (2013) who found that viewership patterns of YouTube
- videos strongly depend on referrals from sites such as Face-
- book or Twitter. In particular, they observed that ‘social’
- videos with many outside referrals rise to and fall from peak
- popularity much quicker than ‘less social’ ones.
- Sudden bursts in view counts seem to be suitable predictors of a video’s future popularity (Crane and Sornette 2008;
- Pinto, Almeida, and Goncalves 2013; Jiang et al. 2014). In
- fact, it appears that initial view count statistics combined
- with additional information as to, say, video related sharing
- activities in other social media, allow for predicting whether
- or not a video will ’go viral’ soon (Shamma et al. 2011; Jain, Manweiler, and Choudhury 2014). Yet, Broxton et
- al. (2013) point out that not all ‘social’ videos go viral and
- not all viral videos are indeed ‘social’.
- Given this interest in video related time series analysis,
- it is surprising that the viral metaphor has not been scrutinized from this angle. To the best of our knowledge, the most
- closely related work is found in a recent report by CintroArias (2014) who attempted to match an intricate infectious
- disease model to view count data for the video Gangnam Style. We, too, investigate the attention dynamics of viral
- videos from the point of view of mathematical epidemiology and present results based on a data set of more than 800
- time series. Our contributions are of theoretical and empirical nature, namely:
- 1)
- we introduce a simple yet expressive probabilistic
- model of the dynamics of epidemics; in contrast to traditional approaches, our model admits a closed form expression for the evolution of infected counts and we show that it
- amounts to the convolution of two geometric distributions
- 2)
- we introduce a time continuous characterization of this
- result; major advantages of this continuous model are that
- it is analytically tractable and allows for the use of highly
- robust maximum likelihood techniques in model fitting as
- well as for easily interpretable results
- 3)
- we fit our model to YouTube view count data and
- Google Trends time series which reflect collective attention
- to prominent viral videos and find it to fit well.
- Our work therefore constitutes a data scientific approach
- towards viral video research. However, it is model- rather
- than data driven. This way, we follow arguments brought
- forth, for instance, by Bauckhage et al. (2013) or Lazer et
- al. (2014) who criticized the lack of interpretability and the
- ‘big data hubris’ of purely data driven approaches for their
- potential of over-fitting and misleading results.
- Our presentation proceeds as follows: Next, we review
- concepts from mathematical epidemiology, briefly discuss
- approaches based on systems of differential equations, and
- introduce the probabilistic model that forms the basis for our
- study; mathematical details behind this model are deferred
- to the Appendix. Then, we present the data we analyzed and
- discuss our empirical results. We conclude by summarizing
- our approach, results, and implications of our findings.
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