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  1. Testing text / paper abstract
  2. taken from http://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/ICWSM/ICWSM15/paper/view/10505
  3.  
  4. Viral videos have become a staple of the social Web. The
  5. term refers to videos that are uploaded to video sharing sites
  6. such as YouTube, Vimeo, or Blip.tv and more or less quickly
  7. gain the attention of millions of people.
  8. Viral videos mainly contain humorous content such as
  9. bloopers in television shows (eg. boom goes the dynamite)
  10. or quirky Web productions (eg. nyan cat). Others show extraordinary events caught on video (eg. battle at Kruger)
  11. or contain political messages (eg. kony 2012). The arguably
  12. most prominent example, however, is the music video Gangnam style
  13. by PSY which, as of January 2015, has been
  14. viewed over 2 billion times on YouTube. Yet, while the recent surge in viral videos has been attributed to the availability of affordable digital cameras and video sharing sites
  15. (Grossman 2006), viral Web videos predate modern social media. An example is the dancing baby which appeared in
  16. 1996 and was mainly shared via email.
  17. The fact that videos became Internet phenomena already
  18. before the first video sharing sites appeared suggests that
  19. collective attention to viral videos may spread in form of a
  20. contact process. Put differently, it seems reasonable to surmise that attention to viral videos spreads through the Web
  21. very much as viruses spread through the world. Indeed, the
  22. times series shown in Fig. 1 support this intuition. They
  23. show exemplary developments of YouTube view counts and
  24. Google searches related to recent viral videos and closely
  25. resemble the progress of infection counts often observed in
  26. epidemic outbreaks. However, although viral videos attract
  27. growing research efforts, the suitability of the viral metaphor
  28. was apparently not studied systematically yet. In this paper,
  29. we therefore ask to what extend the dynamics in Fig. 1 can
  30. be explained in terms of the dynamics of epidemics?
  31. This question extends existing viral video research which,
  32. so far, can be distinguished into two broad categories: On
  33. the one hand, researchers especially in the humanities and
  34. in marketing, ask for what it is that draws attention to viral
  35. videos (Burgess 2008; Southgate, Westoby, and Page 2010).
  36. In a recent study, Shifman (2012) looked at attributes common to viral videos and, based on a corpus of 30 prominent
  37. examples, identified six predominant features, namely: focus on ordinary people, flawed masculinity, humor, simplicity, repetitiveness, and whimsical content. However, while
  38. he argues that these attributes mark a video as incomplete
  39. or flawed and therefore invoke further attention or creative
  40. dialogue, the presence of these key signifiers does not im-
  41. ply virality. After all, there are millions of videos that show
  42. these attributes but never attract significant viewership
  43. Another popular line of research, especially among data
  44. scientists, therefore consists in analyzing viewing patterns of
  45. viral videos. For instance, Figueiredo et al. (2011) found that
  46. the temporal dynamics of view counts of YouTube videos
  47. seem to depend on whether or not the material is copyrighted. While copyrighted videos (typically music videos)
  48. were observed to reach peak popularity early in their lifetime, other viral videos had been available for quite some
  49. time before they experienced sudden significant bursts in
  50. popularity. In addition, the authors observed that these bursts
  51. depended on external factors such as being listed on the
  52. YouTube front page. The importance of external effects for
  53. the viral success of a video was also noted by Broxton et al. (2013) who found that viewership patterns of YouTube
  54. videos strongly depend on referrals from sites such as Face-
  55. book or Twitter. In particular, they observed that ‘social’
  56. videos with many outside referrals rise to and fall from peak
  57. popularity much quicker than ‘less social’ ones.
  58. Sudden bursts in view counts seem to be suitable predictors of a video’s future popularity (Crane and Sornette 2008;
  59. Pinto, Almeida, and Goncalves 2013; Jiang et al. 2014). In
  60. fact, it appears that initial view count statistics combined
  61. with additional information as to, say, video related sharing
  62. activities in other social media, allow for predicting whether
  63. or not a video will ’go viral’ soon (Shamma et al. 2011; Jain, Manweiler, and Choudhury 2014). Yet, Broxton et
  64. al. (2013) point out that not all ‘social’ videos go viral and
  65. not all viral videos are indeed ‘social’.
  66. Given this interest in video related time series analysis,
  67. it is surprising that the viral metaphor has not been scrutinized from this angle. To the best of our knowledge, the most
  68. closely related work is found in a recent report by CintroArias (2014) who attempted to match an intricate infectious
  69. disease model to view count data for the video Gangnam Style. We, too, investigate the attention dynamics of viral
  70. videos from the point of view of mathematical epidemiology and present results based on a data set of more than 800
  71. time series. Our contributions are of theoretical and empirical nature, namely:
  72. 1)
  73. we introduce a simple yet expressive probabilistic
  74. model of the dynamics of epidemics; in contrast to traditional approaches, our model admits a closed form expression for the evolution of infected counts and we show that it
  75. amounts to the convolution of two geometric distributions
  76. 2)
  77. we introduce a time continuous characterization of this
  78. result; major advantages of this continuous model are that
  79. it is analytically tractable and allows for the use of highly
  80. robust maximum likelihood techniques in model fitting as
  81. well as for easily interpretable results
  82. 3)
  83. we fit our model to YouTube view count data and
  84. Google Trends time series which reflect collective attention
  85. to prominent viral videos and find it to fit well.
  86. Our work therefore constitutes a data scientific approach
  87. towards viral video research. However, it is model- rather
  88. than data driven. This way, we follow arguments brought
  89. forth, for instance, by Bauckhage et al. (2013) or Lazer et
  90. al. (2014) who criticized the lack of interpretability and the
  91. ‘big data hubris’ of purely data driven approaches for their
  92. potential of over-fitting and misleading results.
  93. Our presentation proceeds as follows: Next, we review
  94. concepts from mathematical epidemiology, briefly discuss
  95. approaches based on systems of differential equations, and
  96. introduce the probabilistic model that forms the basis for our
  97. study; mathematical details behind this model are deferred
  98. to the Appendix. Then, we present the data we analyzed and
  99. discuss our empirical results. We conclude by summarizing
  100. our approach, results, and implications of our findings.
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