Trapwire Stratfor Email 36

Re: Tirana update

Released on 2012-08-09 18:00 GMT
Email-ID 	374981
Date 	2011-01-22 20:49:30
From 	burton@stratfor.com
To 	marko.papic@stratfor.com
Have asked

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

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From: Marko Papic
Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 13:44:46 -0600 (CST)
To: Burton Fred
Subject: Re: Tirana update
Is this a U.S. or an Albanian LE source?

And if U.S., what is he doing with the opposition groups?

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From: "Marko Papic"
To: burton@stratfor.com, "Analyst List"
Cc: "Tactical"
Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:40:14 PM
Subject: Re: Tirana update

I think this is worth being written up as a piece ahead of tomorrow's
protests.

Is it possible to publish this?

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From: burton@stratfor.com
To: "Analysts" , "Tactical"
Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:36:04 PM
Subject: Tirana update

From TrapWire --

Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with direct
access to Opposition party members).



Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)



a** Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for the
"martyrs" (Berisha's words).

a** The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They have
apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed to
protect themselves against the police. Rama has commented privately he
may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.

a** Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will not
stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
government building will meet the same fate as the protestors yesterday."

a** Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
Gjirokaster.

a** There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway as
to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.

a** Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of
the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).

a** Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90
and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking of
weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not unthinkable.



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--
Marko Papic

STRATFOR Analyst
C: + 1-512-905-3091
marko.papic@stratfor.com

--
Marko Papic

STRATFOR Analyst
C: + 1-512-905-3091
marko.papic@stratfor.com