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  1. Will the Rays be Contenders in 2015?
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  3. The Rays just ended their worst season since 2007, coming off of a 77-85 finish to place fourth in the AL East. A season to forget after earning five 90 win seasons in the last six years along with four playoff appearances, including the AL pennant in 2008. After a miserable summer for Rays fans, Andrew Friedman, Joe Maddon, and Dave Martinez, all key pieces to the great Tampa Bay run over the past half-decade, have left.
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  5. It truly was a strange season for the Rays, however. Not just because they looked like a team built to win, but nothing went right. They had lost Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Wil Myers, Ben Zobrist, and others to injuries and key factors that played into the Rays winning, most notably their defense, were quite inefficient.
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  7. By June 10th, they owned a major league worse 24-42 record, good for a .364 winning record. However, they still managed to make up about 13 games and altered their win percent to about .475. This was due to the 53-43 record to finish the season, highlighted by a streak nine game win streak and a dominant second half from Alex Cobb. What would have happened if the Rays played the whole season like they did in July on? Well, a 53-43 record suggests about a .552 record, projecting 89 wins, which would tie Kansas City for the first Wild Card spot, a playoff berth. Of course, that doesn't justify the losing record the Rays ended up with, but it still proves they are capable of winning.
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  9. Speaking of winning, can they do it in 2015 with rookie manager Kevin Cash replacing the great Joe Maddon? It would be tough, especially considering how the rest of the AL East is beginning to stack. The Red Sox have landed sluggers Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez as well retooling their rotation, the Blue Jays signed Russel Martin and have traded for Josh Donaldson, the Yankees and Orioles haven't made too much noise, but they still expect moves coming. The Rays? Well, they just traded 2013 Rookie of the Year Wil Myers for Steven Souza, Rene Rivera, and some other minor leaguers. How do they expect to compete?
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  11. Well, the division is still weak, especially from a pitching standpoint, something the Rays have a lot of. Perhaps the best pitching staff in the East with Baltimore as a close second. Look at the projected Opening Day rotation:
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  13. 1. Alex Cobb - 2.87 ERA, 8.06 K/9, 2.7 WAR (166 IP).
  14. 2. Chris Archer - 3.33 ERA, 8.00 K/9, 3.1 WAR (194 IP).
  15. 3. Drew Smyly - 3.24 ERA, 7.82 K/9, 2.3 WAR (153 IP).
  16. 4. Jake Odorizzi - 4.13 ERA, 9.32 K/9, 2.0 WAR (168 IP)
  17. 5. ???
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  19. The numbers basically speak for themselves. It might be a little worrying that no starter picked up 200 innings, but there might be a reason to that. Alex Cobb missed about seven starts, Drew Smyly was kept to a conservative inning limit, Jake Odorizzi is a rookie, and Chris Archer is a sophomore. Granted, David Price's time combined with Smyly's innings totaled about 218 innings. Another issue is the lack of a determined fifth starter, as there will likely be a competition during Spring Training between Nate Karns and Alex Colome. Both players have showed promise at the big league level and look to take the next step forward:
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  21. Alex Colome - 2.66 ERA, 4.94 K/9, 0.3 WAR (24 IP).
  22. Nate Karns - 4.50 ERA, 9.75 K/9, -0.1 WAR (12 IP).
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  24. It might seem like Colome would be a favorite to lock up the slot, but Nat Karns has proved he can sustain success, netting over nine K's every nine innings. In fact, his last outing produced 7.0 shutout innings of two-hit baseball and eight strikeouts. Still, Colome is likely the safer option, but both will be given a shot.
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  26. However, if there's anything the 2014 postseason has proved, it's that you need more than just pitching from the rotation, you need a strong bullpen as well. When their '14 season first closed out, the Rays had a strong back end bullpen, but not a lot of depth. Now they have strong middle relief to go along with their late inning guys. A basic overview of the bullpen:
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  28. CL - Jake McGee - Breakout campaign, earned 19 saves out of 23 chances, had a 1.89 ERA, an 11.36 K/9 rate, and a 2.6 WAR. Will start season on DL.
  29. SU - Brad Boxberger - Another breakout season, had a 2.37 ERA, 14.47 ERA, and 0.9 WAR. Possible candidate to fill the ninth inning.
  30. SU - Jeff Beliveau - Only served about 24 innings and mainly as a specialist. Had a 2.63 ERA, a 9.11 ERA, and a 0.5 WAR. Likely to young to serve as a closer.
  31. MRP - Kevin Jepsen - Coming off of a career year in which he had a 2.63 ERA, a 10.38 K/9, and 0.9 WAR. Also had 67 of 74 appearances go without giving up an earned run.
  32. MRP - Ernesto Frieri - Coming off of a horrific season, but signed cheap. Did have 60 saves in the last two seasons, possible candidate for the ninth.
  33. MRP - Grant Balfour - Also coming off a horrific season, did have 64 saves in 3 seasons with the A's, including an All Star appearance. Another candidate for the ninth if he can prove he's what the Rays signed for.
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  35. Although Ernesto Frieri and Balfour are huge question marks, the emergences of the top four is what makes the bunch so special, able to lock down games that were pitched deep into, or being able to connect an inning to the next.
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  37. Finally, the Rays need to get production from not only their offense, but their defense. In 2013, James Loney, Ben Zobrist, Yunel Escobar, and Evan Longoria were all finalists for gold gloves. That season, the infield quad had 27 DRS. In 2014? -29. That's a 56 run difference. Of course it really is held down by Yunel Escobar's -24 DRS, but it still is a significant difference. The outfield, however, does look like the defensive strong point for the team. Desmond Jennings+Kevin Kiermaier in the outfield alone totaled 18 DRS. Add Steven Souza and the Rays outfield might be impossible to hit the ball away from. Another defensive upgrade is the acquisition of Rene Rivera. Rivera ranked sixth in the game in getting an extra strike per game at 1.75, saved 10 runs and threw out about 36% attempted stolen bases. Jose Molina did rank fourth, but also cost the team eight runs and only threw out 27% of runners. Ryan Hanigan does not rank in the top 20 of pitch framers, only threw out 21% of runners, despite saving two runs. Curt Casali had limited time behind the plate, not saving or costing any runs, throwing out 24% of runners, but was also a low ranking on the pitch framing scale.
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  39. Now how well will they hit? Here's the likely Opening Day lineup barring any trade:
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  41. DH DeJesus 4 Zobrist 3 Loney 5 Longoria 7 Souza 2 Rivera 8 Jennings 6 Escobar 9 Kiermaier
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  43. It is a little underwhelming as Evan Longoria appear to be their only proven source of power. Rene Rivera does project to hit 17 and Souza projects to hit about 19, according to Fangraphs writer Carson Cistulli. However, outside of Yunel Escobar and Steven Souza (who is not truly big league testes yet), all players in the lineup had a WRC+ of over 100.
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  45. It should be said that there will likely be more trades, probably big ones involbing impact players like Ben Zobrist. This, however, would give players like Logan Forsythe or Nick Franklin to play. It still remains to be seen, but the Rays are likely headed towards contention if they can prove that they can play like they did in July.
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