1995
After a period of increasing tension and escalating border incidents,
full-scale war erupted between the Soviet Union and the
People's Republic of China. The Red Army enjoyed rapid initial
success, and tank columns roared deep into the northern Chinese
industrial heartland.

However, the Chinese surpassed the expectations of most
military analysts in their ability to mobilize reserves from the interior
and shift them to the fighting front. While the Soviets continued
to make impressive gains, their losses mounted and the
tempo of advance slowed. Soon, large bodies of citizens' militia
were operating in the rear areas, attacking installations and
destroying supply convoys. More and more front line troops had to
be detailed to mopping up these patches of guerrilla resistance,
and the advance ground to a halt.

When the main Chinese conventional forces counterattacked, to
the amazement of the world's military experts, large pockets of
Soviet troops were formed. Most of the Soviet units, due to their
superior mobility and tremendous firepower, were able to fight
their way out of the pockets, but Soviet losses were great and the
front was shattered.

The Soviet Union had already been mobilizing additional troops
from the western military districts, and this was now placed on an
emergency priority basis. As a stop-gap, a half dozen combatready
divisions were withdrawn from Eastern Europe and sent to
the Far East. But the Far Eastern Front had become a meat grinder,
which devoured divisions as quickly as they could be committed.
As factory output switched more and more to wartime production,
the flow of consumer goods dwindled to a trickle and
standards of living in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union fell.
Motor vehicles and railroad rolling stock were increasingly drawn out
of the civilian sector to support the war effort. As the first snows
of winter fell, the Soviets began soliciting the other members
of the Warsaw Pact for volunteer formations to serve on
the Far Eastern Front. Resistance to this was surprisingly strong,
but by the new year the first Polish, Czech, and East German
divisions were traveling east by rail. At least one Hungarian and
Bulgarian division would follow once they finished mobilizing and
re-equipping with more modern weapons. No Romanians would
be going east.

1996
Their ranks swollen with fresh troops, the Pact forces launched
a spring offensive against the Chinese. Despite good initial gains,
the drive soon stalled, with further horrendous casualties. Winter
had witnessed a flood of new, modern equipment through Chinese
ports from the NATO nations, particularly the United States. Now
Soviet and Pact tanks were not facing obsolete wire-guided
missiles, but modern Tank Breaker and Assault Breaker systems
that made the massed tank assaults, which had been so
successful the year before, suicidal.

New tactics were devised, but more troops were needed. Most
Soviet category II readiness divisions were mobilized and sent to
the Far East by mid-year, and almost a quarter of the category I
divisions from the Eastern European garrisons were committed.
Many of the low readiness category III divisions were upgraded to
category II or mobilized, and for the first time in fifty years the
mobilization-only divisions began training.

Appalled at the losses taken in their expeditionary forces, the
other Eastern European members of the Pact agreed only reluctantly
to provide more troops. In June, however, a small group of
senior officers of the East German Army opened secret talks with
a select group of their counterparts in the Bundeswehr and
Luftwaffe, the army and air force of the Federal Republic of
Germany.

In September, a third call for troops from Eastern Europe was
made, to be ready for movement by mid-October whether their
equipment and training were complete or not. On October 7th,
1996, the Bundeswehr crossed the frontier between East and
West Germany and began attacking Soviet garrison units still in
the country. The army of the German Democratic Republic (East Germany)
remained quietly in barracks.

Despite the initial surprise, the fifteen Soviet divisions remaining
in Germany put up a spirited resistance and were soon joined by
two more divisions from Poland and three from the garrison of
Czechoslovakia. By November 1 5th, there were also two Czech
divisions and four Polish divisions in Germany, their orders to leave
for the Far East hurriedly rescinded. To the surprise of the Western
nations, the Czechs and Poles fought well, as neither wished to
see a reunited Germany.

By the end of November, the Bundeswehr was in serious trouble.
Soviet Frontal Aviation had left their most modern aircraft in the
west; these were qualitatively a match for the Luftwaffe and
quantitatively more than a match. As the Bundeswehr lines began
to crumble, high ranking officers of the East German Army made
their move. In a bloodless coup, the civilian leaders of the country
were deposed and replaced with a military junta. Two days later
the new government ordered the army into the field against the
Pact forces in the country and formally requested intervention on
their behalf by NATO.

While the political leadership of the European members of
NATO debated the prudence of intervention, the U.S. Army
crossed the frontier. Within a week, France, Belgium, Italy, and
Greece first demanded that U.S. troops withdraw to their start
line and then withdrew from NATO in protest. British and Canadian
forces crossed the border, however, while Danish and Dutch
troops remained in place, still partners in NATO but not party to
war.

In the far north, Soviet troops made a bid for quick victory in
northern Norway. Most of the best Arctic-equipped divisions had
already been sent east, however, and the third-line troops
available were unable to break through to the paratroopers and
marines landed in NATO's rear areas. As crack British commandoes
and U.S. Marines joined the battle, the front line moved east
again toward the Soviet naval facilities on the Kola Peninsula, and
the elite Soviet paratroopers and marines were isolated and
destroyed.

At sea, the Soviet Red Banner Northern Fleet sortied and attempted
to break through the Greenland-lceland-United Kingdom
Gap into the north Atlantic. For three weeks the opposing fleets
hammered each other, but the western fleet came out on top,
badly bloodied but victorious. 80% of the Soviet northern fleet
tonnage rested on the bottom of the Norwegian and North Seas.
Scattered commerce raiders did break out, however, and by
year's end were wreaking havoc on the NATO convoys bringing
ammunition and equipment across the Atlantic.

Having repeatedly given excuses when asked to provide troops
for the war effort, Romania was finally presented with an
ultimatum on December 5th: either support the war effort fully or
suffer the consequences. The time limit expired without a formal
reply from the Romanian government, but throughout Romania
troops hurried to their emergency mobilization posts.

The Warsaw Pact apparently had expected Romanian compliance
with the ultimatum, for it was not until December 20th
that sufficient troops were assembled to begin an invasion. As
Hungarian, Bulgarian, and Soviet troops cross the border,
Romania formally withdrew from the Warsaw Pact, declared war
on the three invading nations, and applied to NATO for assistance.

The first nation to rally to Romania's aid was her neighbor,
Jugoslavia. Within 24 hours, three divisions and five brigades
crossed into Romania and two days later were at the front under
Romanian command. NATO responded shortly thereafter with
the offer of full membership in the security organization to both
nations, which they accepted. More concrete assistance took the
form of the Turkish 1st Army, which launched its offensive
against a thin Bulgarian covering force in Thrace on Christmas
Eve.

1997
On the first day of the new year, the NATO heads of state
declared their support for a Polish government in exile, headed
by a committee of Polish emigres. While the news was greeted
with scattered worker uprisings in Poland, the majority of the
Polish Army remained loyal to the central government, and open
resistance was soon crushed. An underground movement began
forming, however, and by spring small guerrilla bands, leavened by
Polish Army deserters, began to harass Warsaw Pact supply
convoys and installations.

During January, continuing Turkish successes in Bulgaria
sparked a wave of patriotism in the Turks, particularly since
Greece had remained neutral in the fight against the communists.
On Cyprus, unoccupied and supposedly re-united for three
years, the Turkish Cypriots demonstrated in favor of Turkey. The
demonstrations turned into anti-Greek riots, and the Cypriot
Army moved to restore order. In response, the Turkish Army
invaded Cyprus and quickly occupied most of the island. Greece
first sent military units to Cyprus to resist the Turks and then
declared war on Turkey and attacked the Turkish forces in Thrace.

In late February, the socialist governments of Italy and Greece
concluded a mutual defense pact. While Italy was not obligated by
the pact to enter the Greco-Turkish war, the Italian government
declared the war to be a regional conflict unrelated to the more
general war raging elsewhere, promising to intervene on Greece's
side if NATO tried to tip the balance in Turkey's favor.{ Within a
week Greece declared a naval blockade against Turkey and
warned the world's shipping that the Aegean was now considered
a war zone.

In an attempt to restore the situation in Germany, Soviet and
Czech troops went over to the offensive in southern Germany
but did not have the strength to make any significant gains. With
the coming of spring the NATO offensive gained momentum and in
April the first German troops crossed the frontier into Poland. By
June 1 7th, Warsaw was surrounded, and Polish army units and
the citizens of the city prepared for a siege.

By late spring, NATO's Atlantic fleet had hunted down the last
of the Soviet commerce raiders, and the surviving attack carriers
and missile cruisers moved to northern waters. The NATO drive in
the north had bogged down on the banks of the Litsa River, but
the Northern Front commander now contemplated a bold move to
destroy the remnants of Soviet naval power there. While U.S. and
British units attempted a rapid outflanking move through northern
Finland, the NATO Atlantic Fleet would close in on Murmansk
and Severomorsk, subjecting the Soviet fleet anchorages and air
bases to a massive bombardment. On June 7th the ground
offensive was launched and the fleet closed in on the Kola
Peninsula shortly thereafter.

Finland had been expected to offer token resistance to the
violation of its territory; instead the Finnish Army fought
tenaciously, seriously delaying the flanking move. At sea the
plan fared even worse, as coastal missile boats and the remnants
of Northern Fleet's shore-based naval aviation inflicted crippling
losses on the NATO fleet. By mid-June the last major naval fleetin-
being in the world had been shattered.

In the south, the front in Romania stabilized and entered a
period of attritional warfare. Soviet mobilization-only divisions,
largely leg-mobile and stiffened with a sprinkling of obsolete
tanks and armored personnel carriers, entered the lines. Although
the Romanians proved better soldiers than the over-aged and illtrained
Soviet recruits, the manpower difference began to be felt.

The best Soviet troops were shipped further south to Bulgaria,
and by May had managed to halt the Turkish drive. As Greek
pressure on the Turkish left flank in Thrace built, unit after
Turkish unit was shifted to face the Greeks. It became clear that,
without aid, the Turkish Army would have to fall back or be
defeated.

On June 27th, a NATO convoy of fast transports and cargo
ships, accompanied by a strong covering force, attempted the
run to the Turkish port of Izmir with badly-needed ammunition
and equipment. Light fleet elements of the Greek navy intercepted
the convoy and, in a confused night action off Izmir,
inflicted substantial losses and escaped virtually unharmed. Two
days later NATO retaliated with air strikes against Greek naval
bases. On July 1 st, Greece declared war against the NATO nations,
and Italy, in compliance with her treaty obligations, followed
suit on the 2nd.

In early July, Italian airmobile and alpine units crossed the
passes into Tyrolia. Scattered elements of the Austrian army
resisted briefly but were overwhelmed. By mid-month, Italian
mechanized forces were debouching from the Alpine passes into
southern Germany, and their advanced elements were in combat
against German territorial troops in the suburbs of Munich.
The Jugoslavian Army launched a gallant but costly offensive
against northeastern Italy, but soon was stalled. Italy responded
with a major counteroffensive which, while draining troops from
the German front, quickly shattered the thinly-spread
Jugoslavian northern grouping.

The Italian Army enjoyed tremendous success in the first
month of its involvement in the war, primarily for logistical
reasons. Most of its opponents had already been at war for six
months or more. Their peacetime stocks of munitions and
replacement vehicles had been depleted, and their industries had
not yet geared up to wartime production. The Italians had intact
peacetime stockpiles to draw on. As summer turned to fall,
however, the Italians too began feeling the logistical pinch, aggravated
by the increasing flow of munitions and equipment from
the factories of their opponents.

In Asia, pro-Soviet India and anti-Soviet Pakistan drifted into
war through an escalating spiral of border incidents, mobilization,
and major armed clashes. Outright war began in the spring, and by
mid-year the Indian Army was slowly advancing across the length
of the front, despite fierce resistance.

By early July, NATO advanced elements were closing up on the
Polish-Soviet frontier in the central region, while continuing the
siege of Pact-held Warsaw. The Polish government in exile
established its temporary capital in the city of Poznan, and
asserted its claim to the pre-1939 Polish borders in the east. In
the Far East, Pact forces began major withdrawals all along the
front, and the mobile elements of the Chinese Army began a
victorious pursuit.

On July 9th, with advanced elements of the 1st German Army
on Soviet soil, the Red Army began using tactical nuclear
weapons. In the West, they were used sparingly at first, and for
the first week were used only against troop concentrations no
further than 50 kilometers from the Soviet border. In the Far
East, however, they were used on a massive scale. Chinese
mechanized columns were vaporized, caught in the open on the
roads in imagined pursuit. Strike aircraft delivered warheads on
the northern Chinese population and industrial centers still in
Chinese hands. The Chinese response was immediate, but Soviet
forward troop units were dispersed and well-prepared. Ballistic
missile attacks on Soviet population centers were frustrated by
an active and efficient ABM system, and the Soviet Air Defense
Command massacred the handful of Chinese bombers that
attempted low-level penetration raids. Within a week, the
Chinese riposte was spent, but Soviet attacks continued. The
Chinese communication and transportation system, already
stretched to the breaking point, disintegrated. The roads were
choked with refugees fleeing from the remaining cities, all of them
potential targets. China began the rapid slide into anarchy and
civil disorder.

On the western front, the forward elements of both armies on
the Soviet-Polish frontier were hit hard by tactical nuclear strikes,
as NATO matched the Warsaw Pact warhead-for-warhead. By
late August, the first of the Soviet divisions released from the
Far East were entering the lines. Although the front lines were
fluid everywhere, they began moving gradually west.

On September 15th, the siege of Warsaw was lifted, and a
week later Czech and Italian troops began a renewed offensive in
southern Germany. The southern offensive gained momentum,
and NATO forces in Poland increased the rate of their withdrawal,
practicing a scorched earth policy as they fell back.

The Soviet and Bulgarian forces in Thrace also began a major
offensive against the Turks in September. The one-sided use of
tactical nuclear weapons broke the stalemate, and by month's end
Bulgarian tank brigades were racing toward Istanbul.
Simultaneously, Greek and Albanian troops launched a drive
against southern Jugoslavia, and the Jugoslavian Army began to
break up. The Jugoslavian expeditionary force in Romania was
recalled for home defense, but before it could return, Beograd had
fallen to Italian mechanized columns. At the same time, the limited
use of tactical nuclear weapons, the increasing numbers of
Soviet reserves, and the withdrawal of the Jugoslavians caused
the Romanian front to collapse. As Warsaw
Pact columns swept through both countries, isolated military
units withdrew into the mountains and began to wage a guerrilla
war.

In the west, NATO air units began making deep nuclear strikes
against communication hubs in Czechoslovakia and Byelorussia in
an attempt to slow the Warsaw Pact advance. The Pact
responded with similar strikes against German industrial targets
and major port cities. NATO's theater nuclear missiles were
launched against an array of industrial targets and port cities in
the western Soviet Union. Throughout October the exchanges
continued, escalating gradually. Fearful of a general strategic
exchange, neither side targeted on the land-based ICBM's of the
other, or launched so many warheads at once as to risk convincing
the other side that an all-out attack was in progress. Neither side
wished to cross the threshhold to nuclear oblivion in one bold step,
and so they inched across it, never quite knowing they had done it
until after the fact.

First, military targets were hit. Then industrial targets clearly
vital to the war effort. Then economic targets of military importance.
Then transportation and communication, oil fields and
refineries. Then major industrial and oil centers in neutral nations,
to prevent their possible use by the other side. Numerous
warheads were aimed at logistical stockpiles and commandcontrol
centers of the armies in the field. Almost accidentally,
the civilian political command structure was first decimated, then
eliminated. The exchange continued, fitfully and irregularly,
through November and early December, and then gradually
petered out.

Pakistan and India waged their own nuclear war. Facing defeat,
Pakistan launched a pre-emptive strike on India's economy and
nuclear strike force. Although industrial centers were hit hard,
enough of India's nuclear arsenal survived to launch a devastating
retaliatory strike. The Indian-Pakistani war soon wound down, as
each country's economy no longer could feed its civilians, let
alone supply military units.

1998
The winter of 1997-98 was particularly cold. Civilian war
casualties in the industrialized nations had reached almost 15% by
the turn of the year, but the worst was yet to come. Communication
and transportation systems were non-existent, and
food distribution was impossible. In the wake of nuclear war
came famine on a scale previously undreamed of. Only the exceptionally
cold winter delayed simultaneous epidemics. In the
nations of the Third World, destruction of their major industries
together with cessation of western food aid caused severe
dislocations, with famine and starvation in many areas.

With the spring thaw, the unburied dead finally brought on the
epidemics the few remaining medical professionals had dreaded
but were powerless to prevent. Plague, typhoid, cholera, typhus,
and many other diseases swept the world's population. By the
time they had run their courses, the global casualty rate would
be 50%.

In Europe, France and Belgium had been hit the lightest and
stood virtually alone in maintaining a semblance of internal order
throughout the cataclysm. As refugees began flooding across
their borders, the French and Belgian governments closed their
frontiers, and military units began turning back refugees with
gunfire. The French government authorized the army to move
west to the Rhine to secure a solid geographical barrier. As the
refugees piled up on the French and Belgian frontiers, a large
lawless zone sprang into existence. Open fighting for food was
followed by mass starvation and disease, until the lawless zone
had become barren and empty.

The average strength of NATO combat divisions at the front
had fallen to about 8,000, with U.S. divisions running at about
half of that. Warsaw Pact divisions now varied widely in
strength, running from 500 to 10,000 effectives, but mostly in
the 2-4,000 range. Lack of fuel, spare parts, and ammunition
temporarily paralyzed the armies. Peace might have come, but
there were no surviving governments to negotiate it. Only the
military command structures remained intact, and they remained
faithful to the final orders of their governments. In a time of almost
universal famine, only the military had the means of securing and
distributing rations. Military casualties had been much lower than
casualties among civilians.

In the Balkans, the partisan bands in the mountains of Romania
and Jugoslavia had escaped almost untouched, while many Pact
regular units had been destroyed in the exchange or had just
melted away after it. The Romanians and Jugoslavians began
forming regular combat units again, although still structured to
live off the land and subsist from captured enemy equipment. At
first, there was a great deal of enemy equipment just lying
around waiting to be picked up.

There were border changes as well. The Italian Army formed
the satellite states of Croatia, Serbia, and Slovenia while the
Greek Army directly annexed Macedonia. The Albanian Army,
always a reluctant ally, first protested, then withdrew from the
temporary alliance, and finally began sporadic attacks on Greek
military units. At the same time, many Italian and Hungarian units
were withdrawn from the Balkans and shifted to Czechoslovakia
and southern Germany.

In North America, a flood of hungry refugees began crossing
the Rio Grande, and most of the remaining military forces of the
United States were deployed into the southwest to deal with the
mounting crisis. They moved at the orders of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff, now the de facto government of the United States.

Widespread food riots and violence in refugee areas were met with
military force. The Mexican government protested, and within
months Mexican Army units crossed the Rio Grande to protect
Mexican lives. More U.S. units were shifted south. Scattered
fighting grew into open warfare, and Mexican armored columns
were soon driving northeast toward Arkansas and northwest into
southern California. The front quickly stabilized in northeast
Texas and central California. Elsewhere in the U.S. civil disorder
and anarchy increased with the withdrawal of Army units.

In late June, the Pact forces in southern Germany renewed their
offensive in an attempt to seize the scattered surviving industrial
sites in central Germany. Actually, the most intact parts of
Germany were those areas in the south which had been under
Warsaw Pact occupation, as neither side was willing to strike the
area heavily. Galvanized into renewed action, NATO forces made
a maximum effort to reform a coherent front, and the Pact
offensive finally stalled along a line from Frankfurt to Fulda. In late
August, NATO launched its own offensive from the area of Karl
Marx Stadt, driving south to penetrate the Pact rear areas in
Czechoslovakia. The thinly-spread Czech border guard units were
quickly overwhelmed and Pact forces in central Germany began a
precipitous withdrawal to Czechoslovakia, laying waste to
southern Germany as they retreated.

A simultaneous offensive by the Jugoslavian Army drove north
in an attempt to link up with NATO. The Jugoslavians were halted
near Lake Balaton, however, and then thrown back.

As more Pact units arrived in Czechoslovakia, the NATO drive
ran out of steam and lost its sense of direction. Troops were
shifted west to garrison the recaptured but devastated south of
Germany, and many lives were wasted in a futile attempt to force
the Alpine passes into Italy. As the autumnal rains began, NATO
and the Pact initiated a short and weak second nuclear exchange,
directed primarily at surviving industrial centers in the United
Kingdom and Italy.

Fighting gradually ran down to the level of local skirmishing as
both sides prepared for another winter.

1999
Once spring planting was finished, the United States Congress
reconvened for the first time since the first exchange of missiles.
Senator John Broward (D, Ark), the former governor of Arkansas
who appointed himself to fill one of the two vacant senatorial seats,
was elected President by the House of Representatives. General
Jonathan Cummings, then-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
refused to recognize the constitutional validity of the election,
citing the lack of a proper quorum and numerous irregularities in
the credentials of the attending congressmen.

(Although Cummings' decision would later be widely criticized,
there was much validity to his position. Many congressional seats
were disputed; several of the congressmen in attendance were
merely self-appointed local strongmen who had gained control of
large parts of the old congressional districts, and some had never
seen the districts they purported to represent. There was at least
one confirmed shooting between rival claimants to a seat while
Congress was in session.)

General Cummings declared a continuation of martial law until
such time as a new census was practical, that being necessary
for a meaningful reapportionment of congressional seats and
presidential electoral votes. President Broward responded with a
demand for Cummings' resignation, which Cummings declined to
submit. While some military units sided with the new civilian
government, the majority continued to take orders from the Joint
Chiefs, particularly those overseas, for two simple reasons. First,
the habit of obedience was deeply ingrained, and, in many cases,
was all that had allowed units to survive thus far. Second, the
Joint Chiefs controlled virtually all surviving telecommunications
networks.

In North America, the main effect was a further erosion of
central authority. Forced to choose between two rival govern
ments, both with considerable flaws in their claims to legitimacy,
many localities simply chose to ignore both.

The surviving foreign and national organizations dealing or
concerned with the United States, choose between the rival
governments. The German military government and Polish
government in exile continued relations with the Joint Chiefs,
while the partisan commands of Jugoslavia and Romania
recognized the civilian government. The remnants of the Central
Intelligence Agency obeyed the orders of the civilian government,
while the Defense Intelligence Agency, loyal to the Joint Chiefs,
organized a field operations branch to replace the CIA "defectors."
Officially, forces of the two governments refrained from violent
confrontation, but there were sporadic local clashes over key
installations, occasional bloody coups within military units, and
numerous assassinations and "dirty tricks" by rival intelligence
agencies.

In the autumn, the dispatch of troops to Europe resumed,
although only as a trickle. A few warships were available as
escorts, and various old merchant vessels were pressed into service
as transports. Initiated by the civilian government, both
governments briefly competed in a struggle to outdo the other,
viewing success as a litmus test of their ability to mobilize the
nation. In fact, the call-ups affected only the Atlantic coast and
led to widespread resistance. The dispatch of troops, supplies,
and equipment to Europe made little sense to most, considering
the appalling state of affairs in the United States.

The actual reinforcements sent included a small number of light
vehicles and ammunition but consisted mostly of light infantry.
Mortars were becoming the most popular support weapon for
troops, as they could be turned out in quantity from small machine
shops and garages.

In Europe, the fronts were static for most of the year. Low troop
densities meant that infiltration raids became the most common
form of warfare. The "front" ceased to be a line and became a
deep occupied zone, as troops settled into areas and began
farming and small-scale manufacturing to meet their supply
requirements. Local civilians were hired to farm and carry out
many administrative functions in return for security from the
increasing numbers of marauders roaming the countryside. In
other areas, the security the military unit provided to its civilians
was from the unit itself. Many units stationed in barren areas
drifted apart or turned to marauding when supplies did not arrive.
Although most attacks by large bodies of marauders were directed
at areas held by "the enemy", they begin to be directed at "allied"
units as well, although at first not against units of the same
nationality.

2000
By the spring of the year 2000, the armies of Europe had settled
into their new "cantonment" system. Civil authority had virtually
ceased to exist. Most military units were practicing extensive local
recruiting in an attempt to keep up to strength, and stragglers were
often incorporated into units regardless of nationality. Thus, U.S.
units contain Germans, Poles, Danes, and former soldiers of
Warsaw Pact armies in addition to Americans. Nominal titles of
units (brigades, divisions, etc.) have little bearing on the actual size
of the unit.

In early summer, the German Third Army, spearheaded by the
U.S. Eleventh Corps, moved out of its cantonments on what was
to become one of the last strategic offensives of the war.