Anastasios, Analysis, March 21

Looking at the historical trend of BTCUSD, it is evident that the price only increasing, however the price increase factor and the increase ratio between highs decreases.

There is also another obvious pattern, and this is that it takes 3 months for the price to stabilize after a bubble, and a new bubble starts after approximately 3 months of stability. It takes 2-3 months for a bubble to reach its peak. It averages one bubble per 8 months or so.

ANALYSIS OF INCREASE RATIO BETWEEN BUBBLES
Bubble          Peak                    Increase ratio from previous bubble     Increase ratio of increase ratio
#1              32
#3              260                     8.125
#4              1150                    4.4231                                  0.5443786
#5              2769.003186             2.4078

The increase ratio of the increase ratio (the second derivative) seems to be approximately one half. This means that the increase ratio of bubble #x will be approximately 0.5*((#x-2)/(#x-1)).


PRICE INCREASE FACTOR ANALYSIS
Bubble  Start   Peak            Price increase factor    Increase ratio of price increase factor
#1      0.8   	32              40
#3      13.5    260             19.25925926             0.4815
#4      125     1150            9.2                     0.4777
#5      600     2650		4.4122

The analysis of the increase ratio between the peaks of each bubble is in line with the price increase factor analysis.

Conclusion: the next bubble will start in June and will peak somewhere in August at mid to high $2k.