The Geopolitics of a Pipeline

The Geopolitics of a Pipeline

Ergin Yildizoglu

Newspaper: Cumhuriyet (Republic)

There is currently a notion in Turkey that the U.S. was either behind the failed coup attempt or knew of it and did nothing. It is a notion that is hard to deny. The response of the EU and some Arab states that were supposedly our close allies further supports this notion. Furthermore, this notion fits in perfectly with the geopolitical picture painted by existing projects for securing energy sources.

The Greater Middle East Project once again…

In order to make sense of the geopolitical picture I mentioned above, I guess the most useful concept will be the “Greater Middle East Project”. This project was shaped towards the end of the 1990s, was among the most discussed topics post-9/11, and was in 2008 shelved due to opposition by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and even France because it included North Africa. This project had 3 components:

1.	Through rapid regime changes, the restructuring of the region’s economic and political geography so that it is integrated into the world economy in the form of investment, exports, cheap labor, and spending power; in such a way that supports U.S. hegemony.

2.	Energy Security: The Middle East produces 36.7% of world oil. Among the producers, 35% of total net oil export is done by 4 countries. Among net exporters, the U.S., China, 4 EU countries and India make up 60% of net oil import. The Middle East makes up 15.7% of total gas production in the world. The only net gas importer in ME, Qatar, is 14% of world import. Russia is 21.4% of world gas import. The 5 net gas importing EU countries make up 27% of world gas import. Access to the region’s energy resources then carries great significance for the U.S. and the EU’s energy resource security, as well as China’s rising energy needs. The region carries even greater importance in reducing Europe’s dependence on Russia for oil and especially gas.

3.	Security of Israel. A complete fiasco. Significant steps have been taken regarding Israel’s security but they are outside of our subject. Security of energy resources on the other hand again relates to Turkish geopolitics.

Between two pipelines

This “story” begins with the pipeline project proposed by Qatar in the year 2000, which was proposed to extend through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey and reach Europe. This project fit Turkey’s goal of becoming an energy transfer highway, it would also reduce Europe’s dependence on Russia and Iran, thereby reducing Russia’s strategic advantage over Europe. Yet, Syria did not accept this proposal. According to Lebanon’s The Daily Star, based on what they got from Robert Kennedy Jr.; Saudi, Israeli, and U.S. intelligence agencies planned to start a Sunni uprising in Syria. According to General Wesley Clark, the next target on the U.S.’s regime changing project was Syria after Iraq. When Turkey under AKP rule couldn’t convince their “Brother Assad”, we could say Turkey decided to join in on this regime change project.

The most important competitors of the Qatar pipeline project are the Turk Akimi (Turkish Flow) project that would carry Russian gas over Turkey to Europe, or the Persian Pipeline project variants that would carry Iranian gas to Europe.

In this respect, the shuffling of AKP Turkey towards Russia when confronted with a dead-end in the Syrian project is understandably extremely alarming to the U.S. and Europe. Considering this, linking the coup attempt, or even the suicide bombers that started their activity once again, to a knee-jerk reaction to the impending Turkey-Russia relations does not seem that strange.