WHAT’S MORE EXPENSIVE THAN
COLLEGE? NOT GOING TO COLLEGE
DEREK
THOMPSON
A senior editor at
The Atlantic,
 Derek Thompson oversees business articles for
TheAtlantic
.com
. He has published in
Slate, Business Week,
 and
The Daily Beast
 and appears on radio
and TV talk shows. His essay was published at
TheAtlantic.com
 on March 27, 2012.
PREREADING QUESTIONS
Given Thompson’s focus on business issues, how do you
expect him to develop this argument? Is there more than one way to define the
“worth” of a college education?
If you want to feel optimistic about the state of things for unemployed, disen-
gaged, and dissatisfied youths in America, here’s a way. Spin a globe. Stop it
with your finger. If you touch land, the overwhelming odds are that the young
people in that country are doing much worse.
There are 1.2 billion people between 15 and 24 in the world, according to
the  International  Youth  Foundation’s  new
Opportunity  for  Action
  paper.
Although  many  of  their  prospects  are  rising,  they  are  emerging  from  condi-
tions of widespread poverty and lack of access to the most important means
of economic mobility: education. In the Middle East and North Africa, youth
unemployment  has  been  stuck  above  20  percent  for  the  last  two  decades.
And in the parts of the world where youth unemployment has been low, such
as  south  and  east  Asia,  young  people  are  overwhelmingly  employed  in  the
agriculture sector, which leaves them vulnerable to poverty.
The report is a crackerjack box of interesting facts—e.g.: the probability that
a 15-year-old Russian male will die before he is 60 is higher than 40 percent, the
highest in Europe; among women 15 to 24 years old, only 15 percent are working
in the Middle East—but some of the most surprising stats are the closest to home.
The IYF authors focus on the so-called “NEETs” in the United States and
Europe.  NEET  stands  for  those  Not  Engaged  in  Employment/education,  or
Training.  A  2012  U.S.  study  put  the  social  cost  per  NEET  youth  at  $37,450,
when you factored in lost earnings, public health spending, and other factors.
That brings the total cost of 6.7 million NEET American youths to $4.75
trillion,
equal to nearly a third of GDP, or half of U.S. public debt.
Statistics like this are a good reminder that, even though college tuition is
famously outpacing median incomes, there is still something more expensive
than going to school. Very often, that is not going to school.
1
2
3
4
5
s
e
y
3
6
2
1
6
_
c
h
1
9
_
4
4
4
-
4
6
2
.
i
n
d
d
4
5
3
sey36216_ch19_444-462.indd   453
1
0
/
2
4
/
1
3
1
2
:
3
4
P
M
10/24/13   12:34 PM
Final PDF to printer
454
                       SECTION                       5
A COLLECTION OF READINGS
The NEET study’s final number might be too high. It also might be too low. I
can’t say. But it’s far from the only report identifying an astronomical cost to not
going to college.
•
The typical income gap between a college graduate and a high
school drop-
out has never been higher. Today, college grads
earn 80 percent more than
people who don’t go to high school.
•
A 2009 McKinsey report estimated that if we raised our education perfor-
mance to the level of Korea, we could improve the US economy by more
than  $2  trillion.  (We  could,  in  other  words,  add  the  GDP  of  Italy  to  our
economy with education reform.)
•
Yet another study from NBER estimated that the benefit of a good teacher
over an average teacher could improve a student’s future lifetime earnings
by $400,000.
•
Finally, a study from the Hamilton Project found that $100,000 spent on
college at age 18 would yield a higher lifetime return than an equal invest-
ment in corporate bonds, U.S. government debt, or hot company stocks.
College has its skeptics, and the skeptics make good points. Does a four-
year  university  make  sense  for  every  student?  Probably  not.  Is  the  modern
on-site college education necessarily the ideal means to deliver training after
high school? Maybe not. Vocational training and community colleges deserve
a place in this discussion. And we happen to be living through a quiet revolu-
tion in higher education.
Here are three quick examples. First, beginning this year, students at MITx can
take free online courses offered by MIT and receive a credential for a price far less
than  tuition  if  they  demonstrate  mastery  in  the  subject.  Second,  the  University
of  Southern  California
is   experimenting   with
online  classrooms  that
connect students across
the country in front of a
single  professor.  Third,
there’s  Western  Gover-
nors  University,  a  non-
profit,    private    online
university  that’s  spear-
heading the movement
toward    “competency-
based   degrees”   that
reward what students can
prove they know rather
than  how  many  hours
or credits they amass.
Some     of     these
experiments will fail, and
some  will  scale.  What’s
important  is  that  they
offer   higher   ed   and
6
7
8
9
0
Norway
Germany
France
Canada
Portugal
US
UK
Spain
Italy
Greece
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Youth not in education, employment, or training,
selected countries, 2010 (% of age group)
18
%
s
e
y
3
6
2
1
6
_
c
h
1
9
_
4
4
4
-
4
6
2
.
i
n
d
d
4
5
4
sey36216_ch19_444-462.indd   454
1
0
/
2
4
/
1
3
1
2
:
3
4
P
M
10/24/13   12:34 PM
Final PDF to printer