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  1. Feb 24 16:01:04 <mircea_popescu> Namworld o interesting!
  2. Feb 24 16:01:15 <mircea_popescu> hey listen, why don't you make a single value ?
  3. Feb 24 16:01:15 <Namworld> So you can select options with the most return per BTC, based on current asks
  4. Feb 24 16:01:18 <mircea_popescu> something like this :
  5. Feb 24 16:01:24 <thestringpuller> Does this use black-scholes?
  6. Feb 24 16:01:30 <mircea_popescu> go into the vwap json, calculate the implicit breakeven of each option line
  7. Feb 24 16:01:39 <mircea_popescu> then average this weighted by the volume of that line
  8. Feb 24 16:01:42 <mircea_popescu> and publish the final result.
  9. Feb 24 16:02:19 <thestringpuller> ^- that would be very useful
  10. Feb 24 16:02:31 <Namworld> then average this weighted by the volume of that line << what do you mean by that?
  11. Feb 24 16:02:36 <mircea_popescu> i imagine you would get a bunch of people going there daily just to check that
  12. Feb 24 16:02:41 <mircea_popescu> Namworld i give you an example.
  13. Feb 24 16:03:18 <mircea_popescu> "O.BTCUSD.C310T": {"1d": {"avg": "","min": "","max": "","vsh": "","vsa": "","cnt": ""}, "7d": {"avg": "28103279","min": "28103279","max": "28103279","vsh": "10","vsa": "281032790","cnt": "1"}, "30d": {"avg": "28103279","min": "28103279","max": "28103279","vsh": "10","vsa": "281032790","cnt": "1"}}
  14. Feb 24 16:03:41 <mircea_popescu> "O.BTCUSD.C220T": {"1d": {"avg": "","min": "","max": "","vsh": "","vsa": "","cnt": ""}, "7d": {"avg": "20577298","min": "20577298","max": "20577298","vsh": "3","vsa": "61731894","cnt": "1"}, "30d": {"avg": "19660880","min": "18744462","max": "20577298","vsh": "6","vsa": "117965280","cnt": "2"}}
  15. Feb 24 16:03:55 <mircea_popescu> now, working on the 7d averages
  16. Feb 24 16:04:08 <mircea_popescu> in the case of 310 breakeven is x, in the case of 220 breakeven is y
  17. Feb 24 16:04:44 <mircea_popescu> final value = (x * 281032790 + y * 61731894) / (281032790 +61731894)
  18. Feb 24 16:04:46 <assbot> [MPEX] [S.DICE] 1291 @ 0.00603899 = 7.7963 BTC [+]
  19. Feb 24 16:04:47 <assbot> [MPEX] [S.DICE] 10 @ 0.00603899 = 0.0604 BTC [+]
  20. Feb 24 16:05:12 <thestringpuller> mircea_popescu: is there away to get the STATJSON without mpex account?
  21. Feb 24 16:05:23 <assbot> [MPEX] [S.DICE] 1196 @ 0.00590307 = 7.0601 BTC [-]
  22. Feb 24 16:05:30 <mircea_popescu> thestringpuller no, inasmuch as it's the statjson of that account.
  23. Feb 24 16:06:14 <thestringpuller> how do we get ticker json of mpex?
  24. Feb 24 16:06:17 <Namworld> final value = (x * 281032790 + y * 61731894) / (281032790 +61731894)
  25. Feb 24 16:06:25 <Namworld> what is that supposed to represent?
  26. Feb 24 16:06:36 <mircea_popescu> thestringpuller that's in the faq dood. http://mpex.co/faq.html#11
  27. Feb 24 16:06:50 <thestringpuller> you update the faq so much
  28. Feb 24 16:06:51 <mircea_popescu> Namworld a sort of "btc value implied by option contracts"
  29. Feb 24 16:06:59 <thestringpuller> I don't know when to recheck it :P
  30. Feb 24 16:07:08 <mircea_popescu> allthetime:D
  31. Feb 24 16:07:14 <mircea_popescu> this has been there for > 6 months
  32. Feb 24 16:07:25 <Namworld> But that requires to mix the result for two set of options...
  33. Feb 24 16:07:28 <mircea_popescu> yes.
  34. Feb 24 16:07:36 <mircea_popescu> well, don't mix t and n
  35. Feb 24 16:07:38 <mircea_popescu> but mix p and c
  36. Feb 24 16:08:04 <Namworld> I don't think I can do that
  37. Feb 24 16:08:07 <thestringpuller> makes it better to price options...
  38. Feb 24 16:08:09 <mircea_popescu> why not ?!
  39. Feb 24 16:08:28 <Namworld> I'd need to let someone select the two to mix
  40. Feb 24 16:08:40 <mircea_popescu> no Namworld you mix all.
  41. Feb 24 16:08:50 <mircea_popescu> you just take the entire vwap list and calc the average for everything there.
  42. Feb 24 16:08:51 <Namworld> ALL?
  43. Feb 24 16:08:53 <mircea_popescu> yup
  44. Feb 24 16:09:01 <Namworld> hmm
  45. Feb 24 16:09:03 <mircea_popescu> pick something, like t 7d and that's it.
  46. Feb 24 16:09:06 <mircea_popescu> out comes a number.
  47. Feb 24 16:09:19 <mircea_popescu> which whiole not precise, will be a MUCH better guess than any other guess someone makes.
  48. Feb 24 16:09:31 <mircea_popescu> you can also publish the result of the (281032790 +61731894) sum
  49. Feb 24 16:09:37 <thestringpuller> guess for what?
  50. Feb 24 16:09:37 <mircea_popescu> so people know how much btc that guess has behind it
  51. Feb 24 16:09:48 <mircea_popescu> thestringpuller for next week's btc price i think
  52. Feb 24 16:10:06 <thestringpuller> oh I see
  53. Feb 24 16:11:23 <thestringpuller> mircea_popescu what would be a better way to calculate options?
  54. Feb 24 16:11:46 <thestringpuller> i think if the calculator had current asks at all times it would be interesting
  55. Feb 24 16:13:36 <ThickAsThieves> catching up on chat log, here is the github for what dooglus uses (or at least based his work on) to do SDICE reports https://github.com/etotheipi/BitcoinArmory/tree/master/extras
  56. Feb 24 16:13:49 <ThickAsThieves> would love to see someone implement that on a dynamic web page
  57. Feb 24 16:14:05 <ThickAsThieves> or even generate reports on a more freq sched than doog
  58. Feb 24 16:14:27 <thestringpuller> ;;ticker
  59. Feb 24 16:14:27 <gribble> BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 29.56003, Best ask: 29.66000, Bid-ask spread: 0.09997, Last trade: 29.66000, 24 hour volume: 37518.33733560, 24 hour low: 28.00000, 24 hour high: 29.97000, 24 hour vwap: 28.92295
  60. Feb 24 16:15:53 <assbot> [BTCTC] [SYNERGY] 1 @ 0.11979 BTC [+]
  61. Feb 24 16:16:31 <assbot> [BTCTC] [SYNERGY] 1 @ 0.1198 BTC [+]
  62. Feb 24 16:16:57 <kakobrekla> http://shrani.si/f/d/A8/2WDF9SMB/sierra-mpex.png
  63. Feb 24 16:22:14 <mircea_popescu> a thanks ThickAsThieves
  64. Feb 24 16:22:28 <mircea_popescu> i was etotheipi!
  65. Feb 24 16:22:32 <mircea_popescu> jesys hard name to remember
  66. Feb 24 16:22:59 <ThickAsThieves> np
  67. Feb 24 16:23:08 <mircea_popescu> kakobrekla cool stuff!
  68. Feb 24 16:23:20 <mircea_popescu> ;;later tell bugpowder <kakobrekla> http://shrani.si/f/d/A8/2WDF9SMB/sierra-mpex.png
  69. Feb 24 16:23:21 <gribble> The operation succeeded.
  70. Feb 24 16:24:39 <ThickAsThieves> what is a kakobrekla? that word gets like stuck in my head
  71. Feb 24 16:26:12 <mircea_popescu> kakobrekla is "that's what she said" in turkmenistani
  72. Feb 24 16:26:24 <kakobrekla> :DDDD
  73. Feb 24 16:27:02 <assbot> [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 10347 @ 0.00062996 = 6.5182 BTC [+]
  74. Feb 24 16:27:04 <assbot> [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 9189 @ 0.00062533 = 5.7462 BTC [-]
  75. Feb 24 16:27:06 <assbot> [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5370 @ 0.0006239 = 3.3503 BTC [-]
  76. Feb 24 16:27:09 <assbot> [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 139 @ 0.00062389 = 0.0867 BTC [-]
  77. Feb 24 16:27:10 <thestringpuller> ;;google slinky on an escalator
  78. Feb 24 16:27:10 <gribble> Slinky + Escalator = WIN - YouTube: <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIPK2NQ85Fc>; GEICO Slinky Commercial - Happier Than A Slinky On An Escalator ...: <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOUbW2A-e2Q>; Slinky vs Escalator - YouTube: <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJw0L7fxbF4>
  79. Feb 24 16:27:11 <assbot> [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 3655 @ 0.00062379 = 2.28 BTC [-]
  80. Feb 24 16:27:21 <mircea_popescu> not to be confused with kako braka
  81. Feb 24 16:27:24 <mircea_popescu> which is different somehow
  82. Feb 24 16:27:49 <ThickAsThieves> i had to look up if turkmenistani was a real thing
  83. Feb 24 16:27:57 <Namworld> How to calculate breakeven... what formula...
  84. Feb 24 16:28:58 <Namworld> arf, after a sleepless night I got a hard time to think
  85. Feb 24 16:29:34 <Namworld> I have Ask = A, Struck = S, Weighted = W, trying to find what weighted gives the ask.
  86. Feb 24 16:29:40 <kakobrekla> ya, you look at what you paid, what you got and how much is worth
  87. Feb 24 16:29:57 <Namworld> So I have a formula as (W - S)/ W = A
  88. Feb 24 16:30:12 <Namworld> Now I need to rewrite that as a function of W...
  89. Feb 24 16:30:40 <Namworld> To have a formula based on ask to calculate weighted needed to breakeven...
  90. Feb 24 16:33:41 <mircea_popescu> Namworld forget weighted.
  91. Feb 24 16:34:11 <mircea_popescu> if call is struck at 31 and price paid was 0.15
  92. Feb 24 16:34:24 <mircea_popescu> then you have (x - 31 / x) = .15
  93. Feb 24 16:34:30 <mircea_popescu> get the x, the WEIGH THAT
  94. Feb 24 16:34:54 <mircea_popescu> i mean (x - 31) / x = .15 obviously
  95. Feb 24 16:39:37 <Namworld> You still can't find X...
  96. Feb 24 16:41:15 <mircea_popescu> ...
  97. Feb 24 16:41:24 <mircea_popescu> 1 - 31/x = .15
  98. Feb 24 16:41:29 <mircea_popescu> .85 = 31/x
  99. Feb 24 16:41:38 <mircea_popescu> x = 31/.85
  100. Feb 24 16:42:22 <assbot> [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5370 @ 0.0006318 = 3.3928 BTC [+]
  101. Feb 24 16:42:23 <assbot> [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 595 @ 0.00063181 = 0.3759 BTC [+]
  102. Feb 24 16:42:25 <assbot> [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5000 @ 0.00063182 = 3.1591 BTC [+]
  103. Feb 24 16:42:26 <assbot> [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 4321 @ 0.00063183 = 2.7301 BTC [+]
  104. Feb 24 16:42:28 <assbot> [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1114 @ 0.00063187 = 0.7039 BTC [+]
  105. Feb 24 16:46:14 <thestringpuller> ;;calc 31/.85
  106. Feb 24 16:46:14 <gribble> 36.4705882353
  107. Feb 24 16:46:36 <thestringpuller> mircea_popescu: that's the formula smickles uses...
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