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snake_rattler

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Sep 22nd, 2018
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  1. If Tornadus-T and Tapu Lele are "emergency stops" and not "consistent offensive checks," idk what we're trying to work with here. The fact is that if you recalc all of the defensive Pokemon with Soft Sand Earthquake or whichever boosting item you prefer, you really only gain Zapdos as a defensive check since things still get 2HKOed or OHKOed (especially when factoring in Flare Blitz), but by the threatlist, we're supposed to force out Zapdos, not the other way around. If we can't break Zapdos, then it'll Roost and wear us down with Hidden Power Ice, so that just seems like a loss on our part.
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  5. Generally speaking, most offensive switch-ins, even without Life Orb, still die to Flame Charge damage + whichever-move-is-best-that-you-get-to-pick-because-you-outspeed. Because we have a stat spread of 97 and outspeed most of the current scarfers, the offensive counterplay is, again, extremely limited. CAP25f fully has the capability to gain free Flame Charge boosts against the opponent. If you ever use Fire Blast with Scarf Volkraken, CAP25f can easily setup Flame Charge and Scarf Volkraken suddenly doesn't check it anymore. Tapu Koko literally cannot click Thunderbolt as long as CAP25f is alive or else CAP25f will get another free Flame Charge boost. Celesteela gets scared out by a stronger Fire-type STAB move, switches to Volkraken, and CAP25f uses Flame Charge instead. The 50/50 there shouldn't be a potential win condition being met for CAP25f, where it beats Volkraken or forces it out. The 50/50 in favor of CAP25f should be risking the Ground-type STAB, given its good coverage and power.
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  9. You assume that Life Orb is necessary for CAP25f to achieve the power to reach relevant 2HKOs and OHKOs but...Soft Sand works just fine.
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  13. [Hide=The same calcs against "offensive switch-ins" CAP25f @Soft Sand with EQ, Flame Wheel, Hidden Power Ice, and Flame Charge]Relevant Scarfers:
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  17. 4 SpA Technician Camerupt Hidden Power Ice vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Landorus-Therian: 284-336 (89 - 105.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
  18.  
  19. -1 252 Atk Technician Camerupt Flame Charge vs. 252 HP / 240+ Def Landorus-Therian: 58-70 (15.1 - 18.3%) -- possible 7HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
  20.  
  21. Easy OHKO after rocks or Flame Charge damage
  22.  
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  25. 252 Atk Technician Camerupt Flame Charge vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Tapu Lele: 144-171 (51.2 - 60.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
  26.  
  27. Straight up 2HKO with Flame Charge
  28.  
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  31. 252 Atk Soft Sand Camerupt Earthquake vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Volkraken: 438-516 (128 - 150.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
  32.  
  33. Still OHKOs
  34.  
  35.  
  36.  
  37. 252 Atk Technician Camerupt Flame Charge vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Jumbao: 234-276 (72 - 84.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
  38.  
  39. Straight up 2HKOs with Flame Charge
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  41.  
  42.  
  43. Non-Scarfers:
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  47. 252 Atk Soft Sand Camerupt Earthquake vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Crucibelle-Mega: 916-1084 (258.7 - 306.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
  48.  
  49. Still OHKOs
  50.  
  51.  
  52.  
  53. 252 Atk Soft Sand Camerupt Earthquake vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Krilowatt: 470-554 (105.8 - 124.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
  54.  
  55. Still OHKOs
  56.  
  57.  
  58.  
  59. 252 Atk Technician Camerupt Flame Charge vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Kartana: 360-424 (138.4 - 163%) -- guaranteed OHKO
  60.  
  61. Still OHKOs
  62.  
  63.  
  64.  
  65. 252 Atk Technician Camerupt Flame Charge vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Greninja: 78-93 (27.3 - 32.6%) -- 79.1% chance to 3HKO after Stealth Rock
  66.  
  67. 252 Atk Soft Sand Camerupt Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Greninja: 252-297 (88.4 - 104.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
  68.  
  69. OHKO after Stealth Rock or Flame Charge​​​​
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  73. 252 Atk Soft Sand Camerupt Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Medicham-Mega: 207-244 (79.3 - 93.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
  74.  
  75. 252 Atk Technician Camerupt Flame Charge vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Medicham-Mega: 129-153 (49.4 - 58.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
  76.  
  77. 2HKOs with Flame Charge
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  81. 252 Atk Soft Sand Camerupt Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Pajantom: 240-283 (77.6 - 91.5%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
  82.  
  83. 252 Atk Technician Camerupt Flame Charge vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Pajantom: 75-89 (24.2 - 28.8%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Stealth Rock
  84.  
  85. Pajantom dies to Flame Charge + Earthquake
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  87.  
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  89. 252 Atk Technician Camerupt Flame Wheel vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Tornadus-Therian: 163-193 (54.5 - 64.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
  90.  
  91. 252 Atk Technician Camerupt Flame Charge vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Tornadus-Therian: 136-162 (45.4 - 54.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
  92.  
  93. Tornadus-T actually gets 2HKOed with 2 low rolls, as it has 299 HP
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  97. 252 Atk Technician Camerupt Flame Charge vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Pinsir-Mega: 194-230 (71.5 - 84.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
  98.  
  99. 2HKOed by Flame Charge, and Quick Attack...
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  101. 252 Atk Aerilate Pinsir-Mega Quick Attack vs. 0 HP / 0- Def Camerupt: 135-159 (44.8 - 52.8%) -- 22.3% chance to 2HKO
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  105. 252 Atk Soft Sand Camerupt Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Alakazam-Mega: 255-301 (101.5 - 119.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
  106.  
  107. Still OHKOs[/hide]
  108.  
  109.  
  110.  
  111. [Hide=The same calcs against defensive switch-ins CAP25f @Soft Sand with EQ, Flame Wheel, and Hidden Power Ice]
  112.  
  113. 252 Atk Technician Camerupt Flame Wheel vs. 248 HP / 104+ Def Celesteela: 218-260 (54.9 - 65.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
  114.  
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  117. 4 SpA Technician Camerupt Hidden Power Ice vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Landorus-Therian: 284-336 (74.3 - 87.9%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
  118.  
  119. then you tap it with another move and it falls over
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  123. 4 SpA Technician Camerupt Hidden Power Ice vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Zygarde: 248-292 (69.2 - 81.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
  124.  
  125. you have to be more careful with Zygarde without LO, but it's not hard to chip Zygarde that much
  126.  
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  129. 252 Atk Soft Sand Camerupt Earthquake vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Magearna: 320-380 (88.1 - 104.6%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
  130.  
  131. oh good, it could survive. what's it doing back, at worst?
  132.  
  133. 8 SpA Magearna Ice Beam vs. 0 HP / 0- SpD Camerupt: 112-132 (37.2 - 43.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
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  137. 252 Atk Technician Camerupt Flame Wheel vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Jumbao: 278-330 (85.5 - 101.5%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
  138.  
  139. wow, a whole 20% chance of survival, what's it doing back?
  140.  
  141. 0 SpA Jumbao Hidden Power Ground vs. 0 HP / 0- SpD Camerupt: 144-170 (47.8 - 56.4%) -- 84% chance to 2HKO
  142.  
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  144.  
  145. 252 Atk Soft Sand Camerupt Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Heatran: 688-816 (178.2 - 211.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
  146.  
  147. Still OHKOs
  148.  
  149.  
  150.  
  151. 252 Atk Soft Sand Camerupt Earthquake vs. 248 HP / 8 Def Gastrodon: 246-289 (57.8 - 68%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
  152.  
  153. Still 2HKOs
  154.  
  155.  
  156.  
  157. 252 Atk Soft Sand Camerupt Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 124 Def Arghonaut: 166-196 (40 - 47.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
  158.  
  159. Again...Argho has to play extremely carefully not to fall below ~80%.
  160.  
  161.  
  162.  
  163. 252 Atk Soft Sand Camerupt Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 160-189 (40.6 - 47.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
  164.  
  165. Same here with Clef
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  167.  
  168.  
  169. 4 SpA Technician Camerupt Hidden Power Ice vs. 248 HP / 0 SpD Zapdos: 128-152 (33.4 - 39.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
  170.  
  171. Defensive counterplay has reclaimed Zapdos!...which is something we wanted to beat with CAP25f...
  172.  
  173.  
  174.  
  175. 252 Atk Soft Sand Camerupt Earthquake vs. 248 HP / 8 Def Toxapex: 252-296 (83.1 - 97.6%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock and Black Sludge recovery
  176.  
  177. In the event that Toxapex does survive an EQ, which would mean it got a free switch-in against a non-damaging attack and also didn't get poked by Spikes, it could do this back,​
  178.  
  179. 0 SpA Toxapex Scald vs. 0 HP / 0- SpD Camerupt: 288-340 (95.6 - 112.9%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO
  180.  
  181. But...most of the time it's dying.
  182.  
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  185. 252 Atk Soft Sand Camerupt Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Cyclohm: 234-276 (55.7 - 65.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
  186.  
  187. Still a 2HKO
  188.  
  189.  
  190.  
  191. 252 Atk Technician Camerupt Flame Wheel vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Scizor-Mega: 312-372 (90.9 - 108.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
  192.  
  193. What's the worst it could do back? Toxic probably, but in terms of damage,​
  194.  
  195. 0 Atk Technician Scizor-Mega Bullet Punch vs. 0 HP / 0- Def Camerupt: 69-81 (22.9 - 26.9%) -- 43.9% chance to 4HKO[/hide]
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  198.  
  199. So through all of that, what did we learn? Most offensive switch-ins either get 2HKOed by unboosted Flame Charge or some combination of Flame Charge + another move. If that other move OHKOs the offensive mon, Flame Charge + the other move OHKOs. On the defensive side, with Soft Sand Earthquake, Argho and Clefable get a slightly greater margin of error before they're then 2HKOed again, most other things have a great chance of being OHKOed, especially factoring in chip damage, and the only thing defensive counterplay gains back is Zapdos, which we said speciifcally in threats we wanted to beat. Literally the one mon that should have stayed on this list would be considered a defensive check. Basically, your assumption that Life Orb is necessary to make CAP25 gain the necessary power it needs to crumple teams over just doesn't hold - you still get crumpled by unboosted Fire-type moves and Soft Sand Earthquake. Sure, you're a little more reliant on chip damage, but the grand majority of the time, CAP25f is in the advantageous position. And then CAP25f can still run Life Orb is it really wants to, or other items to vary the benchmarks. Bottom-line is that Life Orb's power, while useful for a mixed Pokemon, isn't what makes CAP25f good against the metagame. It'sthe combination of CAP25's typing, coverage, and Base Speed stat that makes CAP25f able to crunch up the metagame with Flame Charge.
  200.  
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  203. 252 SpA Volkraken Fire Blast vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Camerupt: 114-134 (37.8 - 44.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
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  207. I'm trying to keep an open mind here...but no one's provided a real reason that there's consistent, viable counterplay to Flame Charge CAP25f. This is mostly due to CAP25f outspeeding common Scarfers at Base 97 Speed. If we were at a lower speed, then I'd be more open to Flame Charge due to more expansive counterplay in the current metagame (as SHSP pointed out, we build for the current metagame, not a metagame where there are suddenly scarfers pop up to beat CAP25f). However, since a spread with such high base speed was voted in, I can't support a move that'll make a Pokemon that already pressures defensive teams pretty well threaten offensive and balance archetypes as well. There are other ways to fulfill concept, namely Flame Wheel, Bonemerang, Bone Rush, and Hidden Power Ice. The only common Technician user in CAP, Mega Scizor, runs 1 Technician move - Bullet Punch. Stratagem runs Levitate over Technician now, but if it run Technician, it'd be running at most two: Ancient Power and Hidden Power. We don't need to spam a moveset of 4 Technician moves to fulfill concept, nor do we need to make a Pokemon that mauls over all archetypes with STAB Fire- and Ground-type coverage with Technician boosted Hidden Power Ice mixed in.
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